Guide Metallographer:6.2Today's Gold Trend Analysis, Federal Reserve6月或暂停加息

Market Review:


InternationalgoldThursday(6month1day)Opening price1968.41dollar/Ounces, highest price1982.93dollar/Ounces, lowest price1953.18dollar/Ounces, closing price1981.89dollar/ounce.


Interpretation of the Golden News:


The United States announced on Thursday5monthADPEmployment records27.810000 people, higher than market expectations1710000 people, the former value is29.6万人；美国至5month27Record of initial claims for unemployment benefits for the current week23.2万人，低于市场23.510000 people, the former value is22.910000 people.


Commentary states that the United States5月民间就业增长超过预期，暗示就业市场只是在逐步放缓，这可能导致美联储在一段时间内维持高利率不变。就业增长与去年的强劲增长相比有所放缓，但尽管美联储自2022year3月以来累计加息了500个基点，但劳动力市场仍保持韧性。当时美联储启动了自上世纪80年代以来最快的货币政策收紧行动，以抑制通胀。美国政府周三公布的4monthJOLTs职位空缺达1010万，每个失业人口对应1.8个职位空缺，高于3Of the month1.7个，也远高于被认为符合劳动力市场平衡的1.0-1.2。


The United States announced on Thursday5monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIFinal value recorded48.4, lower than market expectations48.5, previous value is48.5； U.S.A5monthISMmanufacturingPMIRecorded46.9, lower than market expectations47, previous value is47.1.


　　评论称，5月份，美国制造业经济的商业状况再次恶化，这将加剧人们对更广泛的经济健康状况和衰退风险的担忧。尽管供应商交货表现的创纪录改善帮助制造商在5月份完成了积压的订单，实现了连续第三个月的产出增长，但由于新订单流入进一步下降，总体产量增长率仍然令人失望。除非需求回升，否则产量增长将进入下滑状态。由于受到利率上升、生活成本上升、经济不确定性以及疫情后消费从商品转向服务的影响，未来几个月，我们可能会看到商品产出和价格进一步下行的压力。表现强劲的领域是劳动力市场，因为企业继续雇用更多员工以填补长期空缺的职位，虽然就业数据通常是滞后指标，但这确实表明工资存在一定的上行压力。


　　美联储官员哈克表示，我认为我们至少应该跳过6月份的加息。在6月跳过加息是审慎的政策选择。除非数据出现意外情况，我的倾向是跳过加息。现在是时候在至少一次会议上暂停加息了。如果我们看到就业市场出现意外、显著的恶化，我会感到担忧。如果通胀开始以出乎意料的速度下降，那么美联储可能会降息；但这不是我的预期。黑天鹅事件也对通胀上行风险有影响。除非有黑天鹅事件发生，否则我们预计通胀将在未来几年“逐步下降”到2%。工资数据的修正显示出降温趋势。


　　圣路易斯联储主席布拉德表示，就当前宏观经济状况而言，利率处于具有足够限制性的区间水平低端。根据分析，现在的货币政策比一年前合适的多。对于政策利率应该在充分限制区间内的什么位置？有没有其他因素需要考虑(例如金融稳定)？“这种评估可能反映在FOMC未来的判断中”。布拉德认为，通胀已经下降，但整体水平仍然过高。通胀降温的前景不错，但不是非常确定的事情，需要继续保持警惕。


　　美国银行CEO表示，美国消费者支出正在放缓。餐饮支出同比增长从17%lower3%。随着美联储的行动，资金正在流向货币市场。


　　分析称，美非农就业数据数据必须显示出劳动力市场出乎意料的强劲，才能迫使美联储再次加息。他称，现在所处的情况之一是，只有一个数字是无法改变现状的。如果美联储想在下次会议中暂停加息，不管数据如何，他们都可以暂停。在本轮紧缩周期中，这是美联储首次在下次会议上拥有灵活性。


The world's largest goldETF--SPDR Gold TrustPosition decrease compared to the previous day1.45Tons, current position is938.11Tons.


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve6The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged on a monthly basis is81.9%Interest rate hike25The probability of a basis point is18.1%； reach7The probability of maintaining monthly interest rates at the current level is45.3%Accumulated interest rate increase25The probability of a basis point is46.6%Accumulated interest rate increase50The probability of a basis point is8.1%。


Today's Gold Data:


　　14:45France4Monthly industrial output rate


　　20:30U.S.A5Monthly unemployment rate


　　20:30U.S.A5Non agricultural employment population after rose adjustment


Technical analysis of gold:


　　昨日金价技术面先抑后扬再度迎来多头强势探底回升破高收盘，亚欧盘承压1967关口不断下行震荡回落走跌，午后进一步向下击穿1953关口企稳近期4小时双底迎来反弹，晚间美盘二次回踩下探依托1958关口再度迎来强势破高收盘，凌晨加速冲高刺破1983一线报收探底回升破高中阳，整体价格收盘企稳1970上方重回强势运行区间，短线价格将进一步延续反弹冲击前期日线级别开跌口1985-86附近阻力，虽然目前日线级别走出强势探底回升三连阳，但整体趋势依旧处于多空宽幅震荡区间，并非极强多头趋势，今日上方将面临前期日线级别开跌口1985-86附近强阻压制，同时加上周五收周线，日线级别承压1986关口有望迎来调整，今日上方冲高依托1984-86可先空一次看震荡回落，下方支撑关注1967-65附近，日内先行依托此区间高空低多循环参与看震荡运行。


Gold4小时从下轨处启稳回升，昨日推动二浪上涨，中轨处做为二浪起涨点，昨日守住在中轨继续上升摸高，4小时图处于强势反弹并入反转的阶段。从底部回升的空间来看，已基本打破了弱势下行台阶，同时下行通道突破后形成小级别的反转。目前依托中轨走反弹向上的结构。今日短线思路依托1953.5做临界点逢低做多。1小时图台阶上升同时也是二浪上升，首先在台阶上升的次低点就是多头防守点，小时图布林道中轨在1970.上升趋势线的支撑在1960-1962，今日周线收官，短线来看，亚欧盘会先延续走反弹。昨日触及到了1984的阻力点稍有停顿，若是亚盘能够突破才完成反转。综合来看，今日黄金短线操作思路上指南金师建议回调做多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方短期重点关注1983-1985Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1968-1970Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　6.2Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1983-1985Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1975-1970Nearby, break down and take a look1968frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1968-1970Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1980-1985Nearby, break down and take a look1990frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Free benefits within the technical guidance group:The market is constantly changing every day,We have a strong analysis team, and every order we make is carefully considered and judged,To ensure that every order can be profitable and eliminated!Two to three orders per day do not require overnight prosperity,Just ask for the safety of falling into the bag!Profit is very high,I scored nine points alone,One point depends on luck,Eight points rely on strength!One or two days is luck,What about that week?Two weeks?Whether it is within the circle or in a group strategy,Or major financial websites,Team teachers are all current price lists!Daily analysis team technical guidance group, real-time announcement of daily market trends and push notifications,Real time current price list: Each entry is reasonable, evidence-based, publicly available, and can be accessed for free for group experience and inspection!


　　(Add Guide Gold Master（WX:zns83721 QQ:3096653915）After,Free application for direct group experience. Daily current price3-5single)I solemnly promise to add my friend to the guide's gold teacher,Just let me shout if you want me to,I can also tell you the correct single making techniques and mentality,Various solutions for lock orders. This is the key to turning your losses into profits!


Free benefits within the technical guidance group:


① Daily updates:Market trends and intraday reminders,Opportunities for warehouse building.


② Featured columns:Private Q&A,solution τ,Analyze the trend of the day.


③ Welfare delivery:Golden Short Line Opportunity Layout,Continuous tracking(Band opening)。


④ New fan benefits:Trading tactics《KThe King of Online Trading,Teach you how to do a good job in the short term