Guide Metallographer:6.1今日黄金走势分析，美联储暂停加息预期升温

Market Review:


InternationalgoldWednesday(5month31day)Volatile closing up, opening price1961.89dollar/Ounces, highest price1974.55dollar/Ounces, lowest price1953.48dollar/Ounces, closing price1968.40dollar/ounce.


Interpretation of the Golden News:


Wednesday's announcement of the United States4monthJOLTs职位空缺录得1010.310000 people, higher than market expectations937.510000 people, the former value is95910000 people.


　　评论称，尽管经济形势充满挑战，但美国企业对工人的需求仍然强劲。零售贸易、医疗保健、运输和仓储行业的职位空缺数排名居前。住宿和餐饮服务、商业服务和制造业的职位空缺数减少。尽管金融环境收紧迫使部分雇主停止招聘，对劳动力的需求在很大程度上仍保持弹性。虽然从科技和银行业等白领行业开始的裁员正开始蔓延到其他行业，但一些公司仍难以招到员工。


　　美联储经济状况褐皮书显示，随着就业和通胀略有放缓，美国经济近几周显示出降温迹象。大多数地区的就业都有所增长，尽管增速低于之前的报告。在报告期内，房价温和上涨，尽管许多地区的涨幅有所放缓。政策制定者正在仔细评估过去14个月的紧缩政策对经济的影响。过去14个月的紧缩政策将利率从接近于零的水平调至5%-5.25%的区间。官员们已经转向逐次会议制定决策，让数据来指导政策。一些官员暗示，在6月的会议上暂停加息可能是合适的。对持续性的通胀持谨慎态度的人称，联储可能需要采取更多措施，即使是在跳过一次加息之后。


　　美联储官员哈克表示，劳动力市场需要适当放缓。劳动力正在推动核心服务通胀(rise)。我认为我们可以跳过一次加息，这将是一次跳过，而不是暂停加息。暂停加息意味着可能会维持利率一段时间，我不知道我们是否为此做好了准备。


　　美联储理事杰斐逊表示，通胀仍然过高，而且某些指标的进展正在放缓。不加息将有时间来评估数据。在即将召开的会议上若保持美联储政策利率不变，不应被视为利率已达到本轮紧缩周期的峰值。


　　暂停美国债务上限的法案的程序性投票已在众议院获得足够票数通过，投票仍在继续。


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve6The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged on a monthly basis is73.6%Interest rate hike25The probability of a basis point is26.4%； reach7The probability of maintaining monthly interest rates at the current level is35.3%Accumulated interest rate increase25The probability of a basis point is51.0%Accumulated interest rate increase50The probability of a basis point is13.7%。


Today's Focus:


　　08:30美国众议院表决债务上限协议


　　14:00Switzerland4Monthly trade account


　　14:00britain5monthNationwideMonthly rate of housing price index


　　15:50France5Monthly manufacturing industryPMIFinal value


　　15:55Germany5Monthly manufacturing industryPMIFinal value


　　16:00eurozone5Monthly manufacturing industryPMIFinal value


　　16:30britain5Monthly manufacturing industryPMI


　　16:30britain4Monthly central bank mortgage loan permit


　　17:00eurozone5monthCPI年率初值及月率


　　17:00eurozone4Monthly unemployment rate


　　19:30U.S.A5Monthly Challenger Enterprise layoffs


　　19:30Announced by the European Central Bank5Monthly Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes


　　20:15U.S.A5monthADPEmployment numbers


　　20:30From the United States to5month27Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week


　　21:45U.S.A5monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIFinal value


　　22:00U.S.A5monthISMmanufacturingPMI


　　22:00U.S.A4Monthly construction expenditure monthly rate


Technical analysis of gold:


　　从日图表来看，价格刺破趋势线到V形拉升，周三美盘一度上升到1975，最终以一根下影线较长的中阳线报收，从当前盘面来看，空头发生了一丝丝的改变，马上临近周五非农日，今天周四是验证这根K线的时间，也算是一个过度日，如果延续今日将进一步确认反弹。目前日图价格收复下线，支撑就在一线与下线这里，空档在日图的下线这里，我们就需要改变思路顺势而为了。短线就需要随机应变。


　　受日内美指诡异持续偏激上涨的影响，日内黄金的走势也显得很凌乱。早盘黄金还有所回撤调整，但也仅回撤至1955附近，而后却又同步与美指上涨，欧盘时段测压1965一线，可能是见美指持续上涨势头太过强劲，黄金多头有所认怂，方才出现再度回修，跌回至1955附近，但随后又震荡回弹，目前依然处在1960Run above.


　　从日内黄金的表现来看，市场对于黄金多头的预期依旧存在，且相对偏强，但又因为日内美指的偏激异常走高影响，多头信心有所动摇，所以可能会导致今晚黄金未必会紧随美指走势节奏，可能会选择居高震荡来消耗，最终还是要看凌晨基本面的影响来决定。但是从目前美指以及黄金的表现来看，如果美指重归回修状态，那么黄金可能会出现报复的上涨，上方或可再看1975、1980一带测试。而如果美指继续偏激逞强，那么黄金也未必会有太大的回落，下方着重关注1955、1950附近支撑测试。如果黄金意外跌回1950以下，那么日线级别看涨结构受损，短线行情也就可能发生质变，转而再度回归弱势的风险。综合来看，今日黄金短线操作思路上指南金师建议回调做多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方短期重点关注1975-1980Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1950-1953Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　6.1Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1973-1975Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1965-1960Nearby, break down and take a look1955frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1953-1955Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1965-1970Nearby, break down and take a look1975frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


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