Guide Metallographer:5.26Today's gold trend analysis, data continues to boost interest rate hike bets

　　goldMessage interpretation:


Looking Forward to Today Friday(5month26day)The international gold market continues to experience weak overnight decline pressure, while the US dollar index and US bond yields maintain a strong trend with a rebound momentum, which puts pressure on them; Overall, the US dollar index and US bond yields have not shown any signs of resistance or peak rebound, and weekly indicators also show that there is still room and momentum for further strength, which will continue to put pressure on gold prices, so there is still a risk of further decline in gold prices.


Multiple heavyweight data will be welcomed again within the day, with a focus on the US market during the US trading period4Monthly CorePCEPrice index annual and monthly rates, United States4Monthly durable goods order rate, US5The final value of the monthly University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index and the United States5Expectations for monthly and one-year inflation rates, etc; Market expectations are mixed, with a focus on inflation data. However, based on recent data performance, there is a high probability of another bearish outlook on gold prices. Still need to pay attention to the risk of falling back.


Fundamentally, most of the current comments from the Federal Reserve are biased towards hawkish development. The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting also show that there is a consensus that inflation rates are too high and the decline rate is slower than expected, emphasizing the need to rely on data and unlikely to cut interest rates. In addition, the positive data from overnight initial requests has also strengthened this view, making the swap market fully priced. The Federal Reserve will raise interest rates before the July meeting25The basis points and the Federal Reserve's debt ceiling are also about to reach their final point, and short-term factors still lean towards bearish gold prices.


However, in the longer term, although the Fed's recent hawkish rhetoric and5Monthly meeting minutes to combat market pressure on it6The expectation of keeping the moon steady has made it6Continue to raise interest rates on a monthly basis25The probability of an increase of one basis point and the final agreement on the US debt ceiling. Economic data is also biased towards a favorable US dollar, causing gold prices to remain under pressure at present;


But it is also a fact that the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike cycle is approaching its peak. Even if the interest rate cut is postponed, it only prolongs the time under pressure. Ultimately, gold prices will still rise due to the impact of the rate cut. In addition, Fitch Ratings will also push the US“AAA”Placing the rating on the negative watch list will also determine a downgrade of the United StatesAAARating, this will showcase2011The trend of debt negotiations in the year led to a bullish gold price one month after the debt ceiling was reached. Therefore, I personally believe that after entering the fourth quarter, gold prices will continue to rise with a bullish outlook.


Today's Gold Data:


　　14:00britain4Monthly retail sales rate after quarterly adjustment


　　20:30U.S.A4Monthly CorePCEAnnual rate of price index


　　20:30U.S.A4Monthly CorePCEMonthly rate of price index


　　20:30U.S.A4Monthly personal expenditure rate


　　20:30U.S.A4Monthly rate of durable goods orders


　　22:00U.S.A5Expected monthly and one-year inflation rate


　　22:00U.S.A5Final Value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for the Month


Technical analysis of gold:


Gold fluctuated at a low level yesterday and experienced a significant decline in the evening due to the impact of data and market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike. It closed at1940Below the front line. The daily chart closed negative again, falling below the critical support band1950Below, pay attention to the support of medium - and long-term trend lines1935-18Follow from above within the day1953-55Pressure, as long as the market does not rebound1955Above, the short-term market may continue to decline. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of the US Index. If there is a technical adjustment, gold bulls may expand the rebound space.


Looking at the hourly chart, the resistance above is1955If1955Breaking the level of gold will enter a volatile cycle in the end of the trading day, and may be seen again1965High point. For today's trading, we should not go short like on Wednesday and Thursday, but focus on the gains and losses of key points and intraday changes. In addition, early morning gold fell to1936After bottoming out and rebounding, and determining the low point, currently1950At the checkpoint, in today's operations, gold may choose to fluctuate within a range, with opportunities for both long and short positions.


　　5.26Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1952-1955Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1945-1940Nearby, break down and take a look1935frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1933-1935Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1940-1945Nearby, break down and take a look1950frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)