Guide Metallographer:5.26今日黄金走势分析，美经济数据提振市场信心

Market Review:


InternationalgoldThursday(5month25day)Close down again, opening price1963.02dollar/Ounces, highest price1963.02dollar/Ounces, lowest price1965.03dollar/Ounces, closing price1945.23dollar/ounce.


Interpretation of the Golden News:


Thursday's announcement from the United States to5month20Record of initial claims for unemployment benefits for the current week22.910000 people, lower than market expectations24.510000 people, the former value is24.2万人；美国第一季度实际GDPRecorded quarterly annualized rate correction value1.3%Higher than market expectations1.1%, previous value is1.1%。


　　评论称，上周美国初请失业金人数新增22.9Ten thousand people, lower than expected24.5万人，且前一周的数字下修1.710000 people to22.5万人。华尔街日报称，美国首次申请失业救济人数一直保持在相对较低的水平，尽管科技、金融和其他行业的员工遭遇了裁员浪潮。此前数据显示，4月就业岗位增幅创1月以来最高，失业率降至1969The lowest level since the beginning of the year.3月份的职位空缺数量降至近两年低点，这表明雇主今年早些时候开始缩减招聘，尽管对工人的需求仍然大于供应。繁忙的招聘活动可能有助于解释，为什么即使裁员公告堆积如山，申请失业救济的人数也没有变化：失业人员找到工作的速度太快，以至于他们没有时间申请失业救济。


　　分析称，美国第一季度GDP年率经修正后增长1.3%，略高于政府此前的预期。美国商务部周四公布的数据显示，消费者支出被上调至3.8%。然而，衡量生产商品和服务产生的收入和成本的指标：国内总收入继第四季度下降3.3%之后，本季度下降了2.3%。这是自疫情刚刚结束以来维持了几个季度的糟糕情况。GDPandGDI的平均值连续第二个季度出现收缩。这表明，在居高不下的通胀和信贷紧缩的压力下，经济扩张正在失去动力。除了楼市连续第八个季度下滑外，企业设备投资也连续第二季萎缩。尽管如此，在今年前几个月强劲的就业市场支撑下，美国消费者支出仍在增加。


　　美联储官员柯林斯表示，美联储可能已经到达或接近暂停加息的时间点。暂停加息给了我们评估现有政策的空间。银行业的压力可能会对需求造成影响。在审议下一步利率调整时，我们将关注广泛的数据。


　　美联储官员巴尔金表示，美联储正处于“测试和学习”的状态，以确定需求放缓将如何降低通胀。美联储加息也有助于减少需求，银行倒闭导致的信贷紧缩也有同样作用。劳动力市场“相当紧张”。一些企业仍表示需要提高价格。


　　报道显示，据知情人士透露，美国总统拜登和众议院议长麦卡锡接近就美国债务上限达成协议，双方在可自由支配开支方面的分歧仅为700亿美元。这名消息人士和另一名了解谈判情况的人士称，最终可能达成的不会是一份长达数百页、可能需要立法者花几天时间撰写、阅读和投票的法案，而是一份包含几个关键数字的精简协议。另一位消息人士称，预计谈判代表将敲定可自由支配开支的最高限额，包括军费开支，但让议员们在未来几个月通过正常的拨款程序敲定住房和教育等类别的细节。根据美国联邦数据，2022年，美国的可自由支配支出达到1.7万亿美元，占6.27万亿美元支出总额的27%。其中大约一半用于国防，一些议员表示不应该削减这一领域的支出。


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve6The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged on a monthly basis is50.6%Interest rate hike25Bps to5.00%-5.25%The probability of the interval is49.4%； reach7The probability of maintaining monthly interest rates at the current level is25.5%Accumulated interest rate increase25The probability of a basis point is50.0%Accumulated interest rate increase50The probability of a basis point is24.5%。


Today's Gold Data:


　　14:00britain4Monthly retail sales rate after quarterly adjustment


　　20:30U.S.A4Monthly CorePCEAnnual rate of price index


　　20:30U.S.A4Monthly CorePCEMonthly rate of price index


　　20:30U.S.A4Monthly personal expenditure rate


　　20:30U.S.A4Monthly rate of durable goods orders


　　22:00U.S.A5Expected monthly and one-year inflation rate


　　22:00U.S.A5Final Value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for the Month


Technical analysis of gold:


Gold fluctuated at a low level yesterday and experienced a significant decline in the evening due to the impact of data and market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike. It closed at1940Below the front line. The daily chart closed negative again, falling below the critical support band1950Below, pay attention to the support of medium - and long-term trend lines1935-18Follow from above within the day1953-55Pressure, as long as the market does not rebound1955Above, the short-term market may continue to decline. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of the US Index. If there is a technical adjustment, gold bulls may expand the rebound space.


Looking at the hourly chart, the resistance above is1955If1955Breaking the level of gold will enter a volatile cycle in the end of the trading day, and may be seen again1965High point. For today's trading, we should not go short like on Wednesday and Thursday, but focus on the gains and losses of key points and intraday changes. In addition, early morning gold fell to1936After bottoming out and rebounding, and determining the low point, currently1950At the checkpoint, in today's operations, gold may choose to fluctuate within a range, with opportunities for both long and short positions.


　　5.26Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1952-1955Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1945-1940Nearby, break down and take a look1935frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1933-1935Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1940-1945Nearby, break down and take a look1950frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)