Ultima Markets：【行情分析】美日利差扩大 日元空头交易机...

今日重点关注的品种——美元兑日元。

Fundamentally，随着美元反弹，日元再次跌破今年最低水平。6月中旬日本央行利率决议前，日元的贬值压力将会一致存在。尤其是若美国债务危机若能如期解决，对于日元贬值压力将会进一步加大，相反由于避险情绪日元多头或将能乘机反攻。

此外，美元兑日元追踪的更多是两国相对债券收益率，而非经济基本面。债务上限危机导致10年期美债不断上涨，美日10年期债券利差已经扩大到3.335%。

（蓝色美日10年期债券利差vs美元兑日元汇率，由Ultima Markets 制作）

Technically speaking，美元兑日元在昨日明确突破去年12月以来的阻力区域，意味着美元兑日元有几率进一步触及140整数关口，并有可能达到2022year11月末的高点142.25。

USD/JPY1小时周期图，来自Ultima Markets MT4）

美元兑日元在昨日突破震荡区间后，ATR组合指标同样明确了该突破为有效突破。今日晨间行情出现了快速下跌，回踩前期阻力区域后，美元兑日元又立刻收复失地，单根K线收出明显长的下影线Pin Bar，美元兑日元多头情绪明显。

USD/JPY5分钟周期图，来自Ultima Markets MT4）

交易角度来看，行情需要切换小周期关注5分钟周期上，关注行情何时彻底收复大实体标准阴K的价格区域。明确有效涨破后则可以关注日元贬值的交易机会。

according toUltima Markets MT4InpivotIndicator, daily central price level139.127：

139.127Upward bullish, first goal140.044Second objective140.370

139.127Under bearish, first target138.801Second objective137.885

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