Guide Metallographer:5.23今日黄金走势分析，美国债务上限之争持续

　　goldMessage interpretation:


Tuesday(5month23day)，国际金价延续隔夜跌势，因在美联储官员的鹰派言论推动下，美元重启涨势，尽管美国白宫和国会之间关于提升美国债务上限的谈判继续拖延。


　　KCM Trade首席市场分析师蒂姆·沃特勒表示：“虽然尚未就提升债务上限达成协议，但(众议院)议长麦卡锡的评论......减少了避险买盘流入黄金。”


　　美国总统拜登和众议院议长麦卡锡周一(5month22day)未能就如何提高31.4万亿美元的债务上限达成协议，但他们承诺继续谈判。麦卡锡对与白宫谈判代表就债务限额达成协议表示乐观，称讨论已经取得了成果。


　　美国距离可能出现的违约仅剩10天，美国财政部长耶伦对此高度紧张，因为美国潜在的史无前例的违约将严重扰乱全球金融市场，并引发美国经济大规模衰退。


　　明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡里对6月份暂停加息持开放态度，但他警告说，如果美联储在几周内不加息，那么关键是不要取消重新采取行动的选择，“我不希望我们宣布我们已经完成了(raise interest rates)，因为未来的数据完全有可能要求进一步加息。”他强调，服务业通胀仍根深蒂固。


　　圣路易斯联储主席布拉德表示，美联储希望在劳动力市场强劲的情况下应对通胀。布拉德进一步补充说，今年必须再上调政策利率，也许是50Basis points.


　　道明证券的策略师认为，由于债务上限的乐观情绪和有弹性的经济数据有助于金价局部见顶，基金经理们了结了一些黄金多头头寸，并增加了空头仓位。


　　但瑞银集团经济学家认为：“违约可能会削弱美元的估值，黄金将重新获得市场青睐，就像之前的债务上限僵局一样。”他们还认为，大宗商品的结构性牛市完好无损，黄金到2024year3月将上升到2200USD.


Today's Gold Data:


　　15:15France5Monthly manufacturing industryPMIinitial value


　　15:30Germany5Monthly manufacturing industryPMIinitial value


　　16:00eurozone5Monthly manufacturing industryPMIinitial value


　　16:00eurozone3Monthly adjusted current account


　　16:30britain5Monthly manufacturing industryPMI


　　16:30britain5Monthly service industryPMI


　　21:00Federal Reserve Logan delivers a speech at the seminar


　　21:45U.S.A5monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value


　　21:45U.S.A5monthMarkitService industryPMIinitial value


　　22:00U.S.A4Annualized total monthly sales of new homes


　　22:00U.S.A5Monthly Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index


Technical analysis of gold:


Gold fluctuated and recovered to1971Nearby, the market rebounded in the afternoon, and the pressure will be measured again at the high point1983On the first line, although the European market was under heavy pressure during the trading period, it experienced a wave of decline and then fell back to the gap position of last Friday's short jump1969On the first line, the current market has rebounded again.


Looking back at the trend of gold throughout the day, its high and low points are in line with the expected high, that is, above1983-85As the first resistance of the short line1972-69The gap also plays a key supporting role in the short term, and the market is temporarily fluctuating in this area. Although it is in line with expected judgments, the frequency of repeated changes in the rhythm between long and short is relatively high, indicating that the market is still uncertain about the short-term direction, which is a process of digestion and decision-making.


For the day, from the four hour price to the short-term moving average, which did not break on Friday, the key point for the day is still to pay attention. The breaking of the moving average should keep up, and the upper level should test the online and medium-term counter pressure here. However, the system is still in a long rebound, and there is currently no sign of a vacancy. However, breaking the short-term moving average is a fall and a correction of volatility, at least there will be no unilateral downward trend, and breaking it will lead to counter pressure, The suppression of the online market is also a fluctuating trend. Therefore, if gold enters again after a four hour wait and then turns empty, it will temporarily focus on the above regional fluctuations. However, such fluctuations also bring great uncertainty risks to the short-term market, that is, there is a continuation of a wave of upward trend in short-term technology, as can be seen1990-92Nearby, even foreseeable2000Nearby, but if such fluctuations drag on for a longer time, it indicates a lack of confidence among bulls. The role of last Friday's positive line will also be greatly weakened, and it will be more difficult to achieve a reversal trend in the later stage, which can only be seen as a short-term rebound pressure measurement process. Overall, today's gold short-term operation strategy is guided by the guidance of gold analysts, who suggest that the main focus is to rebound and short, supplemented by a pullback and long, with a focus on the short-term above1983-1985Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1960-1950Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　5.23Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1982-1985Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1975-1965Nearby, break down and take a look1960frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1960-1963Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1970-1980Nearby, break down and take a look1985frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)