Guide Metallographer:5.22今日黄金走势分析，黄金暂止跌仍有回落风险

　　goldMessage interpretation:


　　展望本周周一(5month22day)：国际黄金亚市早盘开盘，先行偏强运行，美元指数明显低开走盘，美债收益率也开盘走弱，对其产生支撑，但力度相对有限，走强反应较小。


　　整体上，美元指数日内虽有回落的空间，但也仍处于目前这波反弹趋势之中，周图也突破中轨阻力，附图指标看涨信号维持，暗示短期下方空间有限，后市或再度走强上行，则对金价产生压力，美债10年期收益率也有再度转强的发展，因而则对金价的止跌回升有所限制。


　　日内早盘美国债务上限谈判仍未取得进展，白宫方面今晚或明日将会继续努力达成协议。重点聚焦相关消息。晚间还有2025yearFOMCVoting committee and St. Louis Fed Chairman Brad delivered a speech on the US economy and monetary policy.


　　由于市场大部分投资者仍看好美国有望达成债务上限协议以避免潜在违约，故此，债务风险目前对于金价的支撑力较小，另外，晚间讲话，大概率将维持一段时间的高利率环境或也继续反对任何宣布美联储已经停止加息的说法等鹰派观点，所以，金价晚间仍有走低的风险。


　　不过，本周还将重点关注联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)5月会议纪要、美国GDP最新数据以及美联储青睐的个人消费支出(PCE)通胀指标，以及其他等数据，整体来看，经济活动的背景或继续走软，数据方面，预期偏向利好金价。鉴于最近几家银行倒闭后贷款条件迅速收紧，经济衰退的风险仍然很高，个人仍然认为年底前利率可能会降低。所以目前的承压回调，只是为年底的起涨制造更好的入场低点。


　　基本面上，在5月的会议上，美联储连续第十次加息，使联邦基金利率达到了5-5.25%This is the interval from2007年年中以来的最高水平。在一年多的时间里，美联储将利率提高了5%。下一次货币政策会议定于6month13Solstice14Held on the day of.


　　目前市场对6月份加息的预期从近50%lower20%。暗示美联储可能在6月暂停加息。但是由于通货膨胀率没有下降那么多，经济保持稳定，失业率很低，大型交易商也正在解除降息押注。随着金价两周前刚刚触及纪录高位，交易商也在回吐部分获利，加速金价下跌。


　　总的来说，不管6月加息与否，金价近期在面临债务上限和银行危机，以及经济衰退等问题上，并没有获得看涨动力，各投资者和交易上，在等待不确定性和不知道什么时候开始降息的观点前景上，最好的做法，就是尽可能的先拉低价格，以扩大未来的反弹利润和降低自己的持仓风险。所以，金价在进入第四季度前，仍有走低回调的风险。


Technical analysis of gold:


On Friday, the gold market experienced strong volatility, and although there was a rebound in the US market during the trading period, it remained under pressure1988-1990First line, followed by another downward adjustment. On the daily structure, there is an expectation of expansion and adjustment space in the market, with early lows below1950-1952Regional retracement does not even rule out the possibility of a new low. But from4According to the hourly chart, the short-term market has fallen to1970It is expected that there will be competition on the front line, but the market actually drops to a small low point in the early stage1958-1950Adjacent adjustments also fall within the reasonable range. The hourly chart level indicator is oversold, so the overall trend structure has not been disrupted, and there is still a possibility of providing some rebound momentum, but as long as the upper part cannot pass through2000-1998Nearby pressure. So its downward trend is still very obvious. Follow above next week1988-1990Short pressure test, strong resistance, continue to focus on2000Below this level, we continue to be bearish on gold. If the market returns2022Above, then the intraday decline may lose its bearish impact.


Looking at the gold trend, the structural bearish trend is not yet complete, and the current gold price is1950There has been some support near the checkpoint, and there is also a demand for small rebounds and volatile adjustments in the short term,50Daily moving average front support level1985-1995The US dollar has become a resistance level, and gold prices can only rebound above the above level and remain stable,1950-1960If the range forms support, the probability of stopping the decline next week is high, and there may only be further upward and upward movements in the future2030-2050If gold falls below next week1950Only then can the gold price further decline, and we will pay attention to it1930-1920Support. Overall, today's gold short-term operation strategy is guided by the guidance of gold analysts, who suggest that the main focus is to rebound and short, supplemented by a pullback and long, with a focus on the short-term above1990-1992Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1960-1950Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　5.22Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1986-1988Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1980-1970Nearby, break down and take a look1960frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1960-1963Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1970-1980Nearby, break down and take a look1985frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)