Guide Metallographer:5.22Today's gold trend analysis shows that gold prices have bottomed out and rebounded, leading to strong gains

Market Review:


InternationalgoldFriday(5month19day)Touching bottom, rebounding strongly and closing higher, opening price1955.91dollar/Ounces, highest price1984.00dollar/Ounces, lowest price1953.77dollar/Ounces, closing price1974.57dollar/ounce.


Interpretation of the Golden News:


Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that until recently, the Federal Reserve is expected to further tighten monetary policy. The goal is to achieve a sufficiently restrictive policy stance, and it has not yet been decided how much further strengthening is needed. No decision has been made on whether interest rates are 'sufficiently restrictive'. Now is still a period of high uncertainty in history. The pricing of interest rate trends in the market has been different recently. This seems to reflect a different prediction that inflation will decline faster. So far, the data seems to support the committee's view that reducing inflation takes time. The weak labor market did not affect early inflation; But I do believe that weak labor will become a factor in future inflation. The relationship between labor market weakness and inflation is no different from before the pandemic. Due to the tightening of bank credit conditions, policy interest rates may not have to rise as high as before. Inflation is currently far exceeding the Federal Reserve's target. Price stability is the cornerstone of a strong economy, and maintaining price stability is the responsibility of the central bank.


Federal Reserve News AgencyNick TimiraosAccording to the article, the Federal Reserve's Kashkari recently stated that he may support maintaining interest rates unchanged at the next meeting, giving officials more time to evaluate the impact of past interest rate hikes and inflation prospects. He said in an interview, "I am willing to accept the idea that we can start from now on(Rate hike rhythm)A little slower Federal Reserve officials hinted that they were6month13Solstice14The decision to raise interest rates at the Japanese policy meeting may be a thrilling one. Currently, within the Federal Reserve, a few people argue that the degree of slowdown in inflation and economic activity is not sufficient to justify maintaining interest rates unchanged. But others, including Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, have hinted that they may pause rate hikes to better study the potential lag effects of rapid rate hikes. But Kashkari also stated that I oppose announcing in any form that we have ended raising interest rates, as we still need more information to evaluate. He concluded that if high inflation continues and the Federal Reserve is required to maintain interest rates at higher levels for a longer period of time, or continue to raise rates, the pressure on the banking industry may become even more severe.


US Treasury Secretary Yellen stated that the deadline for the debt ceiling is still in early June,6The month is the "hard deadline" for the debt ceiling, and if the debt ceiling is not raised, it will face difficult choices.


According to reports, US President Biden and US House Speaker McCarthy will meet on Monday(5month22day)Prior to the meeting, debt ceiling negotiators will resume discussions in Washington. According to a statement from the White House, negotiators from both sides plan to meet on Sunday afternoon local time6spot(This morning Beijing time6spot)Resume negotiations. McCarthy emphasized that the two sides have not yet reached an agreement, but after discussing a solution to bridge their differences with Biden, he is more hopeful of reaching an agreement. In addition, according to two insiders, Republicans have reduced their demand for spending from10Annual decrease6Years, but the White House hopes for a deadline of2Year.


Barclays' report on Friday stated that the Federal Reserve6The monthly interest rate hike will have a negative impact on risky assets and further worsen the already tense financing environment. withBradley RogoffThe leading analysts stated that although the probability of a rate hike in the market has changed from a week ago3%Climb to40%But if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates at its next meeting, it would be a "surprise" for the market. Given recent data and hawkish comments from several Federal Reserve officials, the lack of certainty in the Fed's next actions means that "careful selection should be the key to winning in the coming months," the report said. Analysts say that given the tightening financing environment and sluggish growth, they have been bearish for a long time and believe that the top priority this year is credit product selection.


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve6The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged on a monthly basis is84.3%Interest rate hike25The probability of a basis point is15.7%； reach7The probability of maintaining monthly interest rates at the current level is79.1%Accumulated interest rate increase25The probability of a basis point is19.9%Accumulated interest rate increase50The probability of a basis point is1.0。


Today's Gold Data:


　　20:30Federal Reserve Brad delivers a speech on economic and monetary policy


Technical analysis of gold:


On Friday, the gold market experienced strong volatility, and although there was a rebound in the US market during the trading period, it remained under pressure1988-1990First line, followed by another downward adjustment. On the daily structure, there is an expectation of expansion and adjustment space in the market, with early lows below1950-1952Regional retracement does not even rule out the possibility of a new low. But from4According to the hourly chart, the short-term market has fallen to1970It is expected that there will be competition on the front line, but the market actually drops to a small low point in the early stage1958-1950Adjacent adjustments also fall within the reasonable range. The hourly chart level indicator is oversold, so the overall trend structure has not been disrupted, and there is still a possibility of providing some rebound momentum, but as long as the upper part cannot pass through2000-1998Nearby pressure. So its downward trend is still very obvious. Follow above next week1988-1990Short pressure test, strong resistance, continue to focus on2000Below this level, we continue to be bearish on gold. If the market returns2022Above, then the intraday decline may lose its bearish impact.


Looking at the gold trend, the structural bearish trend is not yet complete, and the current gold price is1950There has been some support near the checkpoint, and there is also a demand for small rebounds and volatile adjustments in the short term,50Daily moving average front support level1985-1995The US dollar has become a resistance level, and gold prices can only rebound above the above level and remain stable,1950-1960If the range forms support, the probability of stopping the decline next week is high, and there may only be further upward and upward movements in the future2030-2050If gold falls below next week1950Only then can the gold price further decline, and we will pay attention to it1930-1920Support. Overall, today's gold short-term operation strategy is guided by the guidance of gold analysts, who suggest that the main focus is to rebound and short, supplemented by a pullback and long, with a focus on the short-term above1990-1992Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1960-1950Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　5.22Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1986-1988Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1980-1970Nearby, break down and take a look1960frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1960-1963Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1970-1980Nearby, break down and take a look1985frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)