Ultima Markets: [Market hotspot] Crude oil highlights are not present Long term weakness is a foregone conclusion

internationalcrude oilAgainst the backdrop of the pandemic flooding in the past two years, it has continued to rise. As global central banks enter a rate hike cycle, crude oil prices have been sluggish this year, with a decline of over12%. Although OPEC and several member states announced in early April“voluntarily” Reduce oil productionThe newly added production reduction has exceeded16010000 barrels/However, this news only allowed oil prices to rise for a week before continuing to decline. From the recent market trend, the weak factor of crude oil lies inInsufficient demand for crude oilandrecession。

Imbalance between supply and demand

Against the backdrop of still high oil prices, consumers of crude oil vehicles are shifting towards electric and other renewable energy vehicles.

IEALast Wednesday（5month10The monthly report released on (day) shows that,2022Global sales of electric vehicles have broken through for the first time in1000Ten thousand vehicles,2023Its sales volume is expected to increase again in35%, reaching1400Ten thousand vehicles. It is expected that nearly2Become an electric vehicle.

On the supply side, althoughOPEC+stay5At the monthly meeting, additional production reduction plans were announced, but the result of such intervention is to further push up prices and accelerate the popularization of electric vehicles. Meanwhile,IEA、EIAas well asOPECstay4The monthly report once again raised Russia's supply expectations, which is bound to create a downward trend for the crude oil market.

In addition, the market's economic expectations for the United States are pessimistic. The economy is stagnant, prices are rising, and consumers are basically unable to maintain their willingness to consume crude oil.

(Blue line US core inflation rate is rising, while black line USGDPThe annualized growth rate is declining

UltimaMarketsInvestment Research Group AnalystElonHe said that at present, the issue of the US debt ceiling has not been resolved, and macro risks still exist. Such political negotiations are bound to reach a consensus in the follow-up. Therefore, in the short term, crude oil is still in the shock stage.

Long term weakness, short-term volatility

From a technical perspective,WTIcrude oil4Starting a decline in mid month,5At the beginning of the month, due to the crude oil report driving a wave of upward trend, it rose to the previous downward trend50%After Fibonacci retreated to its position, it descended again. However, due to the huge space below, it is not possible to arbitrarily determine that the market will continue to be bearish.

（WTIcrude oil4Hour cycle chart)

Follow Belowgoldproportion61.8%Will crude oil stop falling and rebound after Fibonacci retreats. In the long run, crude oil has entered a bearish pace, but there is still no very good opportunity to enter the market in the short term, and crude oil still rebounds more than74The probability of the US dollar.

（WTIcrude oil4Hour cycle chart)

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