Guide Metallographer:5.16今日黄金走势分析，美债务上限谈判引发关注

Market Review:


InternationalgoldMonday(5month15day)Maintain a volatile trend, opening price2007.63dollar/Ounces, highest price2022.02dollar/Ounces, lowest price2007.02dollar/Ounces, closing price2017.52dollar/ounce.


Interpretation of the Golden News:


　　美联储官员博斯蒂克表示，考虑到加息过度的风险，美联储应该谨慎行事。控制通胀较为容易的部分已经实现，从现在开始，进展会比较缓慢。企业表示，他们看到了明显的(demand)放缓迹象。希望银行压力测试的最坏情况已经过去，但必须保持警惕。加息对经济的影响才刚刚开始。个人“倾向于”暂停(raise interest rates)，但委员会仍在考虑该怎么做，还有很多数据有待公布。


　　美联储官员巴尔金表示，鉴于还有数据待公布，银行信贷和债务上限存在不确定性，他将暂缓决定6月会议的立场。看到需求正在适度缓和，但为了让通胀回到美联储的2%目标，可能需要进一步降温。如果通胀持续下去，加息“没有障碍”。


　　美联储博斯蒂克表示，通胀过高，美联储必须使其下降至2％的目标。预计到年底通货膨胀率将达到3%的高端。不认为我们会降息。如果我现在投票，我会投票支持保持利率不变。美联储6月会议前还有很多数据。必须保留加息的可能性。


　　美联储官员卡什卡利表示，美联储需要完成通胀率回落到2%的任务。不应被几个月的良好数据所愚弄。美联储还有更多工作要做。劳动力市场仍然紧张，我们在达到通胀目标之前还有很长的路要走。


　　美国财长耶伦表示，如果不提高债务上限，美国最早在6month1日就可能违约。等到最后一刻才提高债务上限会对企业和消费者信心造成严重伤害。下周将向国会提供更多(关于违约日期的)新的信息。实际违约日期可能比预估的时间点晚数天或数周。(据美国高级官员，拜登和麦卡锡定于周二下午3spot(Early Wednesday morning Beijing time3spot)举行债务上限会议。)


The world's largest goldETF--SPDR Gold TrustPosition decrease compared to the previous day3.47Tons, current position is934.07Tons.


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve6The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged on a monthly basis is75.8%Interest rate hike25The probability of a basis point is24.2%； reach7The probability of maintaining monthly interest rates at the current level is58.5%Accumulated interest rate reduction25The probability of a basis point is25.4%Accumulated interest rate increase25The probability of a basis point is16.1%。


Today's Gold Data:


　　14:00britain3Three months in a monthILOunemployment rate


　　14:00britain4月失业金申请人数及失业率


　　17:00Germany5monthZEWEconomic Sentiment Index


　　17:00eurozone5monthZEWEconomic Sentiment Index


　　17:00Eurozone Q1GDPAnnual rate correction value


　　17:00Quarterly employment rate in the Eurozone after quarterly adjustment in the first quarter


　　17:00eurozone3Monthly adjusted trade account


　　20:15Federal Reserve Meister delivers a speech


　　20:30Canada4monthCPIMonthly rate


　　20:30U.S.A4Monthly retail sales rate


　　21:15U.S.A4Monthly industrial output rate


　　22:00U.S.A5monthNAHBReal Estate Market Index


　　22:00U.S.A3Monthly commercial inventory rate


　　22:00美联储理事巴尔作证词陈述


The next day00:15美联储威廉姆斯发表讲话


The next day02:30Federal Reserve Gullsby delivers a speech


Technical analysis of gold:


　　黄金昨日整体如预期的震荡，基本围绕在2020-10区间内运行，比预期的区间要窄，要靠上一些，但整体节奏还是震荡状态，日线收得一小阳线，处于均线夹层内震荡。


　　日线结构上，在连续三日连阴后，行情收得一日小阳也是合理范畴，属于消化此前下跌趋势的过程，日线收盘小阳星K线。维持在上周五的区间内收缩整理，日K线连续的收缩整理，目前维持在中轨附近震荡，也是争夺2000关口的关键位置，昨日最高反弹2022附近承压。尾盘久攻不破，今日仍有下探之势，下方依旧关注中轨2000的得与失，跌破此位才能打开空间，目前处于整理蓄势待破当中。但并没有改变下跌中继的形态结构，所以主思路还是侧重于看近期黄金再有扩大回修空间的预期，一旦下方2000整数关口失守，那么黄金还是有可能去回撤日线级别区间下沿1970, and even60Daily line1950附近的。


　　​4小时图空间稍有收敛，短线处于下行台阶中运行，不过还未击穿低点2000，使得短线空间看不到太深。小时图反复测试2022附近略有承压，尾盘在反弹后承压回落收回低位，今日亚盘开盘偏向弱势，但空间大小还得看破位力度。不破2000关口依旧维持震荡，下破则打开空间。布林道开始收缩震荡。空间稍有收敛。小时图上，黄金昨日基本于2020-10之间横盘震荡，上方趋势线以及均线还是起到了实质性的压制作用，同时美指有所回修也并未给黄金带来太大的助涨动能，所以表明黄金当前多头动能还是不足的，整体只能以技术性的回弹修整趋势来看待，那么随着时间的推移，后期行情就还有再度回修调整的可能，依然有望将趋势选择的低点下移至2005-00Area.


　　结合日线以及小时图走势，日内黄金大概率可能会先延续昨日的横盘震荡，如果基本面没有足够的利多因素，那么随着时间的推移，黄金也将大概率会再度有所下移，下方可继续关注2010附近争夺，关注2005-00区域支撑争夺。如果基本面有利好，那么黄金上方可关注2023-25一带压力，只要行情不站稳其上，那么整体还是偏弱的趋势。综合来看，今日黄金短线操作思路上指南金师建议反弹做空为主，回调做多为辅，上方短期重点关注2022-2025Frontline resistance, short-term focus below2000-2005Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　5.16Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds2018-2020Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target2010-2005Nearby, break down and take a look2000frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback2000-2002Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target2010-2015Nearby, break down and take a look2020frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


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