Guide Metallographer:5.16Today's gold trend analysis, gold consolidation has been waiting for the trigger for a long time

　　goldMessage interpretation:


As we approach the middle and late stages of the week, we will see a series of Federal Reserve leaders preparing to make speeches.


The content must focus on the topics that everyone is concerned about, such as whether interest rate hikes have ended? When will interest rates be lowered? Will banks still experience thunderstorms? What should I do if I even default on my debt? Repeating four words with an old tune is enough to summarize. Any investor who pays attention to the news can guess eight or nine without leaving ten.


Combined with last week's United States4monthCPIThe tenacious performance of the data, as well as a series of subsequent economic indicators, I believe that the Federal Reserve will continue to maintain an overall hawkish stance in the short term. For US Treasury yields, they will continue to be bullish and upward, and of course, the US dollar index is no exception.


After closing last week, the US dollar has formed a standard double bottom patternKDayang, as long as we continue to rise, we have a way to go. Our goal is to105.5.


Technical analysis of gold:


Last Friday, I received a small shade, showing three consecutive shades. The three consecutive shades were close2For the first time in the past month, there have been very few occurrences, which indicates that it is highly likely to close today, end the three yin periods, and continue the oscillating pattern; Moreover, although the three yin periods appeared, the downward trend was not significant, and the secondary support for the early low point of the large yin period was not significant2000The upper part stabilizes, punctures the middle track, and shows signs of forming a double bottom; Short term Today's moving average5Rihe10Daily pressure2021、2028Once we can stand firm2028If it continues to rise, it will strengthen and rise again in the short term, in order to continue hitting historical highs; And once the fierce attack approaches the high position again, it will still repeatedly rise and suppress for interval oscillation, because the correspondingmacdAlways at the top deviation, not yet below the zero axis for correction;


Gold Test2000A double bottom stabilization is formed near the front low support, leading to another rebound2022-23Strong pressure, causing short-term fluctuations again. Although the short-term trend has not continued to weaken, the monthly pattern has formed three peaks at a high level, and it is also a daily upward trend line that suppresses pressure and falls back. From the daily rhythm, gold is indeed strong, but it has risen in consecutive bullish periods, peaked at a single bearish point, and fell back. Last week, after continuous fluctuations and adjustments, the price did not recover from the top of the daily bearish line. On the contrary, the longer the fluctuation time, the greater the risk of falling back. At the same time, the US dollar100.8A double bottom has formed nearby and stabilized. Last week's rise broke the recent low consolidation high, and the US dollar has shown a short-term bottoming pattern. The rise of the US dollar will suppress gold. The key nodes in the golden trend are still2000Double bottom support, although continuously fluctuating to break the strong form, must fall below2000The peak can only be established in the short term.


From the perspective of the market trend structure of gold, the recent three reverse draws have all fallen and the downward trend has ended. Therefore, the short-term rebound has a certain degree of inducement, not a true rebound and upward form, but a secondary rebound forming a downward trend, with the main theme still being a bearish downward trend. We also need to pay attention to whether the conditions for intraday weakness can fall below again2007If it falls below, it can also be drawn back and continue to look empty2000Nearby. If there is an unexpected upward breakthrough within the day2023The pattern does not necessarily mean a reversal or oscillation, it is just that the intraday increase is too high, and the probability of breaking the low is relatively small. Pay attention to the downward trend line in a volatile market2028After the strong pressure performance, continue to see a decline. Overall, today's gold short-term operation strategy is guided by the guidance of gold analysts, who suggest a rebound and short selling as the main approach, supplemented by a pullback and long selling. The short-term focus should be on the upper part2020-2022Frontline resistance, short-term focus below2000-1990Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　5.15Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds2020-2022Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target2010-2000Nearby, break down and take a look1990frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1990-1992Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target2000-2005Nearby, break down and take a look2010frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


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