ATFX: Türkiye's general election attracts attention. Can Erdogan be re elected?

5month14Türkiye held a presidential election on March 196.4%The preliminary vote count shows that the current President Erdogan has won49.35%Votes.6Kemal Klechidalou, a candidate from the "National Alliance" camp composed of opposition parties, won45%Vote, won by independent candidate Ogen5.21%Votes. No candidate has won more than half of the votes, and Türkiye's general election is likely to enter the second round of competition:5month28The election will be held again on the day of July. The current President Erdogan publicly stated, "Biden ordered the overthrow of Erdogan, and I know that everyone who supports me knows. If that's the case, then tomorrow(14day)The vote will also respond to Biden The spokesperson for the US State Department responded that "we will not favor any party in the election". Affected by this news, as of today15:30Türkiye lira depreciated against the US dollar0.39%And maintain a long-term depreciation trend; Türkiye Istanbul Stock Exchange30indexfuturesPre market drop10%。


It is reported that Erdogan2014He became President of Türkiye in2018Reappointed in. During Erdogan's term of office, Türkiye's inflation rate rose from10%Soaring to the highest point from left to right85.51%Last year10The month began to decline,4The latest value for the month is43.68%, still at a very high level. Facing the serious problem of high inflation, the Central Bank of Türkiye insists on loose monetary policy, which runs counter to the international practice. The reason is that the whole of Türkiye is under the control of "Erdogan Economics". The professionals of Türkiye's Central Bank do not have independent decision-making power, and the central bank governor changes too quickly. There was an extreme situation of "changing four governors in two years". Under the influence of illogical monetary policy, it is expected that Türkiye's inflation rate will be difficult to recover to2%The level of health.


Türkiye's labor market is not performing well,3The latest unemployment rate for the month is10%, much higher than5%The level of health. Although from2020Since the beginning of the year, the unemployment rate has increased from14%The high point of the market began to decline, but the pace of decline was too slow to effectively improve investor confidence. In fact, the reason why Erdogan chose to maintain loose monetary policy in a high inflation environment is because he is worried about a large number of idle population after the unemployment rate loses control. As long as the unemployment rate remains relatively low, even if the inflation rate is high and the depreciation of the local currency is significant, extreme social events will not occur.

With high inflation rate and high unemployment rate, Türkiye's macro-economy under the rule of Erdogan is very bad, and it cannot win the new office of most voters. surplus3.6%The announcement may lead to Erdogan's49.35%The support rate is over half, but this is only the "pass line", and Erdogan is still far from being "expected". What needs to be recognized is that Erdogan is still the soul of Türkiye at this stage, because under his rule, Türkiye's international status has been rising, and the representative event is that Türkiye has become a key force in brokering the agreement between Russia and Ukraine on food transportation in the Black Sea.

Risk reminder, disclaimer, special statement:
There are risks in the market, and investment needs to be cautious. The above content only represents the analyst's personal views and does not constitute any operational suggestions. Please do not consider this report as the sole reference. At different times, analysts' perspectives may change, and updates will not be notified separately.

2023-05-15