Guo Shengxin:5.12黄金行情趋势分析黄金价格涨跌分析及操作建议

goldMarket trend analysis;





Friday（5month12日）欧市盘中，现货黄金窄幅震荡，目前交投于2004.22dollar/盎司附近。隔夜金价冲高回落，虽然美国初请数据弱于预期，PPI数据也暗示通胀将进一步放缓，市场对美联储将暂停加息的预期进一步强化，美债收益率下跌，再加上对美国债务违约担忧引发的避险支撑，金价一度冲高至2041美元附近，但随后金价很快由涨转跌，上周美国初请失业金人数跃升至一年半以来的最高水平，表明随着需求放缓，劳动力市场出现裂痕，这可能给美联储下个月暂停进一步加息留下了空间。随着需求降温，通胀压力也在减弱。劳工部周四公布的其他数据显示，4Monthly producer prices only slightly rebounded, with wholesale inflation hitting its lowest annual rate in over two years. These reports are considered to be in line with the expectations of most economists that the economy will fall into recession before the end of the year. In another report released on Thursday, the Labor Department stated that the final demand producer price index(PPI)stay3Monthly decline0.4%Afterwards,4Monthly rebound0.2%. As of4Of12Within months,PPIincrease2.3%, for2021year1The smallest year-on-year increase since the beginning of the month,3Monthly year-on-year growth2.7%. Service cost growth0.3%OccupyPPIMonth on month increase80%. Portfolio management fee growth4.1%Drive up overall service costs. Personal consumption expenditure(PCE)The calculation of the price index includes portfolio management fees, airfare prices, and healthcare costs. This is a major inflation indicator tracked by the Federal Reserve when formulating monetary policy. Overall, although risk aversion also provides support for gold prices, more funds are pouring into the US dollar. The strengthening of the US dollar index has significantly suppressed gold prices, and the short-term bullish signal of the US dollar has increased, which puts further downward pressure on gold prices in the short term. Although the market expects the Federal Reserve to6Interest rate hikes will be suspended in the month, but they have been largely digested by the market and may not provide further upward momentum for gold prices in the short term.





黄金技术面分析；黄金昨日探高回落收低，本周的节奏主势是震荡，不过短线则是伴随反复的冲高回落，延续前一日的拉锯震荡走法，高低点集中在美盘时段，先扬后抑，日线级别：高位震荡；MACD顶背离后出现绿色柱且初步死叉，KDJ粘合后初步死叉，金价连续两个交易日冲高回落，并跌至5Daily moving average and10日均线下方，短线看空信号有所增强，目前正试探布林线中轨2007.24附近支撑，如果失守该位置，则有望进一步跌向，布林线下轨1967.20附近，目前布林线轨道接近水平运行，中线走势参考布林线轨道1967.20-2047.27区域突破情况。短线的话，2000整数关口、5month2Daily low point1978.39附近也还分别存在一定的支撑。上方10Daily moving average resistance2021.30附近，在收复该位置前，后市偏向空头，进一步阻力参考2030关口，若能回升至该位置上方，则削弱短线看空信号。综合来看，今日黄金短线操作思路上郭晟鑫建议反弹做空为主，回调做多为辅，上方短期重点关注2030-2035Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1995-1990Frontline support.