Guo Shengxin:5.12 黄金原油今日趋势怎么看

　　goldMarket trend analysis;

Friday（5month12日）欧市盘中，现货黄金窄幅震荡，目前交投于2013.22dollar/盎司附近。隔夜金价冲高回落，虽然美国初请数据弱于预期，PPI数据也暗示通胀将进一步放缓，市场对美联储将暂停加息的预期进一步强化，美债收益率下跌，再加上对美国债务违约担忧引发的避险支撑，金价一度冲高至2041美元附近，但随后金价很快由涨转跌，上周美国初请失业金人数跃升至一年半以来的最高水平，表明随着需求放缓，劳动力市场出现裂痕，这可能给美联储下个月暂停进一步加息留下了空间。随着需求降温，通胀压力也在减弱。劳工部周四公布的其他数据显示，4Monthly producer prices only slightly rebounded, with wholesale inflation hitting its lowest annual rate in over two years. These reports are considered to be in line with the expectations of most economists that the economy will fall into recession before the end of the year. In another report released on Thursday, the Labor Department stated that the final demand producer price index(PPI)stay3Monthly decline0.4%Afterwards,4Monthly rebound0.2%. As of4Of12Within months,PPIincrease2.3%, for2021year1The smallest year-on-year increase since the beginning of the month,3Monthly year-on-year growth2.7%. Service cost growth0.3%OccupyPPIMonth on month increase80%. Portfolio management fee growth4.1%Drive up overall service costs. Personal consumption expenditure(PCE)The calculation of the price index includes portfolio management fees, airfare prices, and healthcare costs. This is a major inflation indicator tracked by the Federal Reserve when formulating monetary policy. Overall, although risk aversion also provides support for gold prices, more funds are pouring into the US dollar. The strengthening of the US dollar index has significantly suppressed gold prices, and the short-term bullish signal of the US dollar has increased, which puts further downward pressure on gold prices in the short term. Although the market expects the Federal Reserve to6Interest rate hikes will be suspended in the month, but they have been largely digested by the market and may not provide further upward momentum for gold prices in the short term.

　　黄金技术面分析；黄金昨日探高回落收低，本周的节奏主势是震荡，不过短线则是伴随反复的冲高回落，延续前一日的拉锯震荡走法，高低点集中在美盘时段，先扬后抑，日线级别：高位震荡；MACD顶背离后出现绿色柱且初步死叉，KDJ粘合后初步死叉，金价连续两个交易日冲高回落，并跌至5Daily moving average and10日均线下方，短线看空信号有所增强，目前正试探布林线中轨2007.24附近支撑，如果失守该位置，则有望进一步跌向，布林线下轨1967.20附近，目前布林线轨道接近水平运行，中线走势参考布林线轨道1967.20-2047.27区域突破情况。短线的话，2000整数关口、5month2Daily low point1978.39附近也还分别存在一定的支撑。上方10Daily moving average resistance2021.30附近，在收复该位置前，后市偏向空头，进一步阻力参考2030关口，若能回升至该位置上方，则削弱短线看空信号。综合来看，今日黄金短线操作思路上郭晟鑫建议反弹做空为主，回调做多为辅，上方短期重点关注2030-2035Frontline resistance, short-term focus below2000-1995一线支撑，行情实时变化，

　　crude oilMarket trend analysis;

　　5month12日（周五）欧市盘中，美原油交投于70.31dollar/桶附近；油价周四下跌约2%至一周低点，因为美国债务上限的政治僵局激起了对全球最大石油消费国经济衰退的不安情绪，而美国初请失业金人数的增加和亚洲经济数据的疲软也对油价造成打击。美国财政部长耶伦敦促国会提高31.4万亿美元的联邦债务限额，并避免发生前所未有的违约，从而引发全球经济衰退。目前美国债务上限的不确定性，最近可能促使大部分石油行业出现信贷紧缩的银行业问题，以及出现经济衰退的持续强烈可能性，仍然是石油市场的重大障碍。总体来看，美国债务上限的不确定性增加油价上行压力，美国初请失业金人数升至一年半新高增加了经济衰退的担忧情绪，油价短线或承压；油价近期交易需要关注就美国债务上限问题下周将举行的会议，不确定性风险较大，投资者需谨慎。

　　原油昨日转换下跌，日线中阴线收低回落，久攻73.50-73.80突破未破，昨日承压转换回落，同时跌破了低点71.30.冲高回落蓄势破低，打破了持续性的反弹结构，日线级别：震荡下跌；MACD死叉信号延续，油价的低位反弹在50%回撤位附近受阻后承压，并回落至5Daily moving average10Daily moving average and38.2%回撤位下方，短线下行风险有所增加，若失守5month4日干69.80下方，可能会重新下探3Monthly low point64.10Nearby support; In the short term,23.6%Retreat position68.49、3month24Daily low point66.81附近也还分别存在一些支撑。由于KDJ金叉信号仍在，在失守69.80前，仍不能排除多头重拾反弹走势的可能性，上方10Daily moving average resistance71.62Nearby,5Daily moving average resistance72.18附近，若能收复该位置，则削弱短线看空信号，动能还需顶破4month28Daily low point73.92附近阻力，才能扭转短线下行风险。综合来看，今日原油短线操作思路上郭晟鑫建议反弹做空为主，回调做多为辅，上方短期重点关注72.5-73.0Frontline resistance, short-term focus below69.5-69.0一线支撑，　

This article is written by Guo ShengxinVX:gsx2567For reference only, I am reading online and analyzing in real-time every day. Due to network issues, the article can only provide you with temporary directions and ideas. As for the specific operations in the later stage, they will be provided in real-time in the group disk.