Guide Metallographer:5.12Today's Gold Trend Analysis, Eagle Sound Boosts US Dollar Strength

　　goldMessage interpretation:


Looking Forward to Today Friday(5month12day)International gold has shown some signs of stopping its decline at the beginning of trading, with the US dollar index slowing down and US bond yields weakening at a low opening, providing support. However, gold prices are still operating below the short-term moving average and are stabilizing in the rebound5There is still a risk of further decline above the daily moving average.


In addition, after a series of economic data prompted people to reassess the prospects of global monetary policy, traders sought refuge. The rise of the US dollar, which is also a safe haven asset, overshadowed the support for gold from the lingering economic risks. Therefore, in the short term, gold prices still face selling pressure.


Focus on the United States within the day4Monthly import price index rate, United States5Expectations for monthly and one-year inflation rates and the United States5Initial value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for the month. There is a high probability that the overall expectation is biased towards a favorable gold price, but based on recent data trends, there is still a high probability of a volatile pullback. Pay attention to the actual trend and market situation.


Fundamentally, although global economic uncertainty, ongoing debt ceiling debates, upcoming default periods, and banking crises will continue to support precious metals such as gold and silver.


But after the Bank of England further raised interest rates on Thursday and raised them2023The expected annual economic growth also indicates that there seems to be increasing confidence in avoiding an economic recession. In addition, the Federal Reserve has also shown a hawkish view, which has weakened concerns about a global economic recession and left global market interest rates still in a strong hawkish position. This has also weakened the positive outlook for gold prices as interest rates are about to peak and cut;


In addition, although the result of the continuous discussion on the debt ceiling is still postponed, looking back in history, the possibility of debt default is very small, and there is no chance. Yesterday, Yellen also said that the debt ceiling must be raised, so the fear of US debt default has also been reduced.


Furthermore, although the banking industry still remains fragile, there have been no new thunderstorms and risk aversion concerns have eased. In the short term, favorable factors have weakened, and gold prices are mainly under pressure due to volatility.


However, in the long run, gold prices still have the expectation of reopening a bull market2011The debt ceiling situation for the year; Although an agreement was ultimately reached, four days later, credit rating agency Standard&Poor's cancelled the US government debtAAARating. And push the price of gold to a new record.


Although the Federal Reserve remains hawkish, the fact that the peak interest rate is about to reach has not changed. After maintaining high interest rates for a period of time, the pace of interest rate cuts is bound to reach the market, without the support of gold prices. So, as gold prices enter the second half of the year or fourth quarter, I am still optimistic about the return of bullish investors. We only need to pay attention to the bearish pressure in the short and medium term, as well as the potential for technical adjustments.


Today's Gold Data:


　　14:00UK Q1GDPAnnual rate correction value


　　14:00britain3Three months in a monthGDPMonthly rate


　　14:00britain3Monthly manufacturing output rate


　　14:00britain3Commodity Trade Account after Monthly Adjustment


　　14:00britain3Monthly industrial output rate


　　14:45France4monthCPIMonthly rate


　　20:30U.S.A4Monthly Import Price Index Monthly Rate


　　22:00U.S.A5Expected monthly and one-year inflation rate


　　22:00U.S.A5Initial monthly University of Michigan consumer confidence index


Technical analysis of gold:


Yesterday, gold hit highs and fell, but closed lower. The main trend this week was volatility, but in the short term, it was accompanied by repeated highs and lows, continuing the previous day's saw saw saw and shake trend. The high and low points were concentrated in the US market period, rising first and then suppressing, and the overall trend remained volatile and falling, with the rebound high point moving downwards. Yesterday's highest rebound2041First line pressure. The conversion from high to low was in line with expectations, and yesterday's intraday trading was directly in line with expectations2040Short selling on the first line2018-2015Complete bagging. Daily double negative closing small negativeKThe line is still at a high level and there are signs of further downward pressure in some areas, but the short term is accompanied by repeated changes. Today, the week concludes. As it closed lower yesterday. The interval is moving down. Today's Focus2000The integer level gains and losses, and only by failing this position can we open up the downward space, otherwise the oscillation rhythm will not change.


　　4Hour cycle at periodic high point2048The above recorded Great Yin constructs a bearish engulfment form, gold4The single negative line of the hour chart fell, breaking the low point of the range at the beginning of the week2020-2022.This level is converted into a small level of resistance, and if it weakens further today, this level in the Asian and European markets will be the first resistance point and also today's empty point. See further potential to break through yesterday's low point and test it2000Gate, hourly chart confirmed by late night backdraft2022There are still obstacles nearby. But there was no further decline. Short line or oscillating rhythm.1Hour cycle at resistance level2040Nearby, a bearish swallow pattern was recorded in the Great Yin, with an overall dome shape. In the future, the overall trend can be seen as downward. Pay attention to the support trend line below1990Support position! Overall, today's gold short-term operation strategy is guided by the guidance of gold analysts, who suggest that the main focus is to rebound and short, supplemented by a pullback and long, with a focus on the short-term above2020-2023Frontline resistance, short-term focus below2000-1990Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　5.12Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds2018-2020Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target2010-2000Nearby, break down and take a look1990frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1990-1992Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target2000-2005Nearby, break down and take a look2010frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


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Solid Harvest Operation Plan:


　　1、5000The US dollar mini position is operated with a stable and conservative approach, with an expected return point of50%above


　　2、1-3A standard position of 10000 US dollars, operated through a combination of medium and short term operations, with expected revenue potential70%above


　　3、8Senior positions above $10000, supplemented by short-term and medium-term positions, with long-term positions as the main focus, with expected revenue potential90%above