Guide Metallographer:5.11Today's gold trend analysis shows that gold is still volatile despite its sharp rise and fall

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Interpretation of the Golden News:


Looking Forward to Today Thursday(5month11day)International gold starts to strengthen first, US dollar index and US bonds10The low opening and low strengthening of the annual yield have supported it, but the rebound and strength of the US dollar index after the low opening have limited the rebound momentum of gold prices. In addition, according to yesterday's closing pattern, there are also bearish pressures entering, so caution should be taken in daily operations;


Overall, the daily chart of the US dollar index is once again below the medium track, and the weekly chart is also below the medium track. Short positions still dominate, and there is a lot of room for bearish future prospects. In addition, the US bond yield is also the same. Therefore, for gold prices, the long-term bullish outlook remains optimistic.


Just in the short term, the US dollar index and US bond yields have not broken the recent low support, and bearish expectations have not been further opened, which is expected to maintain the risk of bottoming out in volatility, which will also cause gold prices to fluctuate and move forward.


We will focus on the Bank of England's interest rate resolution and meeting minutes for the day ahead. And Bank of England Governor Bailey held a press conference. Afterwards, we will focus on the United States to5month6Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week(ten thousand people), USA4monthPPIAnnual and monthly rates.


The former is expected to continue raising interest rates and remain hawkish, while exerting pressure on the US dollar and boosting gold prices. The latter's data is also expected to have a certain positive impact on gold prices, so the probability of gold prices strengthening and closing up today is high. Even if it is unexpectedly bearish, it can still be treated as volatile.


Fundamentally, the peak or peak of the Federal Reserve's interest rates combined with bank crises support the upward trend of gold. In the short term, there may be some decline due to emotional relief, but the probability of a downward trend is not high.


Although the United States4After adjusting the roseCPIThe significant increase in monthly rates has strengthened the market's view of the Federal Reserve peaking, but4Monthly OverallCPIThe slowdown slightly exceeds expectations, which will still keep the Federal Reserve high interest rates for a period of time. Therefore, for gold, although the rebound momentum slows down, it will not cause a sustained downward trend. Gold will need more basis for suspending interest rate hikes or further reducing interest rates in order to be positively reflected in prices and continue to rise and climb.


In addition, although economic concerns such as the possible default of the US debt ceiling continue to exist, but back in history, there is no possibility of default, and it is impossible to default, because the result of the default of the US debt is the day when the hegemony of the US dollar disappears completely. In addition, as long as the local currency is repaid, it is impossible to default. So, this is also the reason why gold has not continued to rise significantly at present.


But not defaulting does not mean that gold will not strengthen again2011The debt ceiling situation for the year; Although an agreement was ultimately reached, four days later, credit rating agency Standard&Poor's cancelled the US government debtAAARating. And push the gold price to a new record. So it is still possible for gold prices to reach2100Above or above the US dollar.


So, in the short term, the performance may fluctuate due to market factors, but in the medium to long term, gold prices will remain strong and continue to covet new historical highs.


Today's Gold Data:


　　19:00Bank of England Announces Interest Rate Resolutions and Meeting Minutes


　　19:30Bank of England Governor Bailey Holds a Press Conference


　　20:30From the United States to5month6Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week


　　20:30U.S.A4monthPPIAnnual and monthly rates


　　22:15Federal Reserve Governor Waller delivers a speech


Technical analysis of gold:


Gold returned under pressure yesterday and returned as expected before late trading2030Shake up and down, enjoy beautyCPIAffected by data, the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy are unclear, and gold experienced a brief upward trend, measuring pressure to2048After a significant retracement of gains, it fell to2020After the first line, there was a rebound and oscillation, and the daily line finally closed with a negative star line with up and down shadow lines5Near the daily line.


From the perspective of daily structure, although there is data impact, gold's performance yesterday did not exceed the technical range and surged to the upper edge of the range2048-50The pressure level falls back and eventually retracts5Near the daily line, there are up and down shadow lines, which not only indicate the current weakness of the bulls' uptrend, but also indicate that there is a stalemate between the long and short sides. From a technical perspective alone, there is still a possibility of continued adjustment in the short-term market. However, there are still significant uncertainties in gold at present. Firstly, at the daily level, technically, the daily moving average has crossed upwards. If there is no effective spatial retreat in the short term, the cross upward state of the moving average may strengthen bulls' confidence; Secondly, facing short positions in gold in the near future is also very unfavorable. If there is no bearish news in the short term to trigger a pullback in market space, then the confidence of bulls will gradually increase in the process of shock digestion. In terms of daily structure, gold may face significant selection risks today, and the upper part can focus on yesterday's high points and the upper edge of the range2047-50Under pressure, there will still be5Daily line2030-27As the key to short-term competition, you can continue to follow below10Daily line2020Nearby competition, if the market falls below10Daily line, then look below20Daily line2010-07Competition in the region, technically more inclined to fall back to the market20The volatility near the daily line provides support and consolidation, but the current bullish sentiment in the market is extreme, making it difficult to achieve this expectation in the short term.


Gold4The hour chart is accompanied by a rising and falling trend, with a longer upper shadow crossing the shadeKLine, but the end of the day still closed at2030Neutral position, no further breakdown due to any downward movement2000Gateway.4Houbulin Road is still closing in, and to further decline, the prerequisite is to have the momentum to break through2000At the checkpoint, we can further see the downward space. Currently, we are repeatedly organizing, but we are still stabilizing2000Above the integer level, the market is still volatile above this level, and in the short term, it may be accompanied by repeated highs and lows to accumulate momentum and move forward. The uncertain weather of the US dollar and insufficient sustainability of bullish and bearish positions make it difficult for gold to move unilaterally for the time being. Waiting for the momentum to break. Follow above in the day2040Nearby short pressure, hourly chart level range, upper edge pressure level, lower attention2020Competition, the middle zone of the hour chart interval, followed by attention below2013-10The lower edge of the hour chart interval. Technically speaking, the market may be more inclined towards correction and adjustment, but this week's performance is still bullish and emotional, which is also a key factor hindering the normal operation of the market. The key is whether it can open up space when falling from the upper track to the lower track2000The gains and losses of integer levels are maintained within a certain range to see fluctuations. Overall, today's gold short-term operation strategy is guided by the guidance of gold analysts, who suggest that the main focus is to rebound and short, supplemented by a pullback and long, with a focus on the short-term above2040-2045Frontline resistance, short-term focus below2010-13Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　5.11Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds2038-2040Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target2030-2020Nearby, break down and take a look2010frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback2010-2012Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target2020-2030Nearby, break down and take a look2035frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


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Solid Harvest Operation Plan:


　　1、5000The US dollar mini position is operated with a stable and conservative approach, with an expected return point of50%above


　　2、1-3A standard position of 10000 US dollars, operated through a combination of medium and short term operations, with expected revenue potential70%above


　　3、8Senior positions above $10000, supplemented by short-term and medium-term positions, with long-term positions as the main focus, with expected revenue potential90%above