Guo Shengxin:5.11黄金原油最新行情涨跌趋势分析及晚间操作建...

　　goldLatest market trend analysis:

Analysis of gold news: Thursday(5month11day)亚市早盘，现货黄金延续反弹走势，金价刚刚突破2035dollar/盎司；周三美国CPI数据引发黄金市场大幅波动，金价一度飙升向2050dollar/盎司，但随后大跌逼近2020dollar/盎司。美国周三CPI数据出炉后，因美元走软，金价一度飙升至2048.20dollar/盎司，但随着美元收复失地，金价呈现“高台跳水”态势，金价最低触及2021.39dollar/盎司。随后金价再度强势反弹，周三收报2029.79dollar/盎司，日内下跌4.50USD or0.22%。周四亚市早盘，金价持续反弹至2035dollar/盎司上方。

　　在通胀数据公布后，投机兴趣迅速反映出美联储7月份加息的可能性较小。其结果是，美国股市出现反弹，美联储按兵不动意味着美国避免硬着陆的可能性更大。因此，美元在foreign exchange市场大幅下跌。美国股市周三以积极的基调开盘，但很快就改变方向，帮助美元收复此前对主要竞争对手的失地。美国国债收益率也出现同样的情况，在CPI数据发布后，美国国债收益率稳步上升，但已经跌至数据发布前的低点，维持在日波动区间的低端。4月通胀报告强化了美联储暂停加息的计划。4月通胀报告显示，价格压力并没有恶化，随着住宅租赁成本的缓慢增长影响到官方通胀指标，价格压力可能会很快放缓。文章称，尽管4月通胀数据并未显示出令人信服的放缓，但美联储主席鲍威尔半年前曾表示，官员并不一定认为一系列通胀数据放缓就是暂停加息的先决条件。市场将等待美国周四公布的4Monthly Producer Price Index(PPI)，寻找利率展望更多的蛛丝马迹。



　　黄金技术面分析：黄金昨日有所承压回修，晚盘前如预期回到2030Shake up and down, enjoy beautyCPIAffected by data, the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy are unclear, and gold experienced a brief upward trend, measuring pressure to2048After a significant retracement of gains, it fell to2020After the first line, there was a rebound and oscillation, and the daily line finally closed with a negative star line with up and down shadow lines5Near the daily line.

From the perspective of daily structure, although there is data impact, gold's performance yesterday did not exceed the technical range and surged to the upper edge of the range2048-50The pressure level falls back and eventually retracts5Near the daily line, there are up and down shadow lines, which not only indicate the current weakness of the bulls' uptrend, but also indicate that there is a stalemate between the long and short sides. From a technical perspective alone, there is still a possibility of continued adjustment in the short-term market. However, there are still significant uncertainties in gold at present. Firstly, at the daily level, technically, the daily moving average has crossed upwards. If there is no effective spatial retreat in the short term, the cross upward state of the moving average may strengthen bulls' confidence; Secondly, facing short positions in gold in the near future is also very unfavorable. If there is no bearish news in the short term to trigger a pullback in market space, then the confidence of bulls will gradually increase in the process of shock digestion. In terms of daily structure, gold may face significant selection risks today, and the upper part can focus on yesterday's high points and the upper edge of the range2047-50Under pressure, there will still be5Daily line2030-27As the key to short-term competition, you can continue to follow below10Daily line2020Nearby competition, if the market falls below10Daily line, then look below20Daily line2010-07Competition in the region, technically more inclined to fall back to the market20The volatility near the daily line provides support and consolidation, but the current bullish sentiment in the market is extreme, making it difficult to achieve this expectation in the short term.

Gold4The hour chart is accompanied by a rising and falling trend, with a longer upper shadow crossing the shadeKLine, but the end of the day still closed at2030Neutral position, no further breakdown due to any downward movement2000Gateway.4Houbulin Road is still closing in, and to further decline, the prerequisite is to have the momentum to break through2000At the checkpoint, we can further see the downward space. Currently, we are repeatedly organizing, but we are still stabilizing2000Above the integer level, the market is still volatile above this level, and in the short term, it may be accompanied by repeated highs and lows to accumulate momentum and move forward. The uncertain weather of the US dollar and insufficient sustainability of bullish and bearish positions make it difficult for gold to move unilaterally for the time being. Waiting for the momentum to break. Follow above in the day2040Nearby short pressure, hourly chart level range, upper edge pressure level, lower attention2020Competition, the middle zone of the hour chart interval, followed by attention below2013-10The lower edge of the hour chart interval. Technically speaking, the market may be more inclined towards correction and adjustment, but this week's performance is still bullish and emotional, which is also a key factor hindering the normal operation of the market. The key is whether it can open up space when falling from the upper track to the lower track2000整数关口的得与失，不破则维持区间看拉锯震荡。综合来看，今日黄金短线操作思路上郭晟鑫建议反弹做空为主，回调做多为辅，上方短期重点关注2043-2048Frontline resistance, short-term focus below2020-2015Frontline support.

　　crude oilLatest market trend analysis:

Analysis of crude oil message surface:5month11At the beginning of the Asian market on Thursday, US crude oil was trading at72.83dollar/Near the barrel; Oil prices fell on Wednesday, ending three consecutive days of upward trend. Economic data was mixed and did not provide a clear interest rate path for the Federal Reserve. However, inflation data suggests that the Federal Reserve may continue to raise interest rates; The US crude oil inventory unexpectedly increased, and the US debt ceiling impasse triggered economic concerns, dragging down oil prices. US Energy Information Administration(EIA)On Wednesday, it was announced that due to the re release of national reserves and a decline in exports, US crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased last week, while the decline in gasoline inventories exceeded expectations due to a jump in demand. Analysts said: 'Oil prices are under pressure due to economic growth concerns related to the banking crisis and normal seasonal weakness caused by slower energy demand in spring. Oil buyers in Asia and Europe have had to pay high prices for lower quality and heavily polluting crude oil due to sanctions against Russia andOPEC+The reduction in production has reduced the supply of these grades of crude oil. On the whole, oil prices are affected by higher inflation data, and the unexpected increase of US crude oil inventory, and the US debt ceiling impasse has further triggered economic concerns, and the increase of oil prices may be limited; Key focus for the dayOPECMonthly report.

Technical analysis of crude oil: crude oil reached a high yesterday, fell back and leveled off, with a slight negative daily trendKThe physical size of the line is not large, and there is a slight lack of kinetic energy in some areas after the rebound of the continuous yang. Yesterday, it only reached a high point due to inertia and still fell and closed down, reaching its highest point73.80Back testing of the rear endplate to71.80.The walking method of sawing and washing dishes back and forth shows that the short-term single sided bull head lacks kinetic energy, and the walking method of sorting and accumulating momentum while stepping back.4After stabilizing at the mid track, the hourly chart rebounded and the upper track still fell under pressure. Currently, Bollinger Road is beginning to contract. The interval is slightly smaller, and with the addition of previous data from the bottom63.63Since the rebound, we have approached0.5And the golden point0.618Heavy resistance. During the first rebound, the short term will be accompanied by repeated detours to consolidate and accumulate momentum. At the same time, it is also a stage of choosing a new direction. Will it be a rebound that comes under pressure and leads back down, or will it be a strong rebound with a double bottom? Currently rebounding in the range83.50-63.60Choose between neutral values, and the short-term should be based on the intraday form, while the ultra short-term should respond. Overall, Guo Shengxin suggests that the short-term operation strategy for crude oil today should mainly focus on a pullback to lower levels, supplemented by a rebound to higher levels, with a focus on short-term operations above74.5-75.0Frontline resistance, short-term focus below71.7-71.2Frontline support.