Guo Shengxin:5.10今日黄金原油走势分析及趋势交易策略

【goldAnalysis of the Latest Market Trends



Wednesday(5month10day)The international gold price fluctuated narrowly. Traders are waiting for key US inflation data, which may determine the next direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Investors are also closely watching developments surrounding the US debt ceiling. Economists predict that gold will reach a historic high. The gold price has already reached2020dollar/The ounce level hovered around for several trading days, although below its historical high(2079.38dollar/ounce)But any signs of consumer price relaxation may have the potential to rewrite this record. In addition to the US inflation data, the progress of the US debt ceiling negotiations is also crucial for gold traders, especially in the case of the delay in reaching an agreement, the threat of a potential unprecedented US default worries the market. Analysts said that it was positive for the two sides to continue to meet, "but no matter how stressed, time is running out, and the risk of default due to mistakes is increasing day by day." Economists warned that the impact of the long-term default of the United States includes that the economy may fall into a deep recession, the unemployment rate will soar, and the stability of the global financial system based on American bonds will be damaged.



Gold daily level high volatility;MACDAdhesion after top deviation,KDJSlightly dead cross, after a signal similar to the "Twilight Star" peak appeared near the historical high, gold prices rebounded moderately, but failed to break the short-term peak signal. There is still a possibility of gold prices oscillating and building a peak, and preliminary support is in place10Daily moving average2016.50Nearby, pay attention to the middle track of the Bollinger Line2007.92Nearby support, if this support is missed, add a short-term bearish signal to further support the2000Near the integer level, last Friday's low point support was also near this position. If this position is missed, it means that the gold price is expected to further fall towards the lower track of the Bollinger Line1965.37Nearby, in the short term, last Tuesday's low point1978.39There is also some support nearby. However, the possibility of gold prices fluctuating upwards cannot be completely ruled out until the Bollinger Bands are lost. Please pay attention to the Bollinger Bands above2050.44Nearby resistance, if it can be overcome, it will increase the bullish signal in the future, and it means that gold prices may start a new round of upward trend. Further resistance can be referred to separately2060Gateway and2070Gateway. In the short term, intraday highs2038.10There are also some obstacles nearby. In summary, Guo Shengxin suggests that gold's trading strategy for today should focus on rebounding at high altitudes, supplemented by a pullback at low altitudes, with a focus on the upper level2037-2042Frontline resistance, short-term focus below2015-2010Frontline support.



　　【crude oilAnalysis of the Latest Market Trends



Wednesday(5month10day)，国际油价回落，有望结束过去三个交易日连涨势头，因美国石油库存意外增加引发需求担忧，NYMEX原油短线或回落到71.23美元。投资者等待日内稍后即将公布的美国通胀数据，以衡量这个最大石油消费国的下一次利率决定。分析师表示：“石油投资者应留意有关美国经济健康状况的线索。在我目前看来，美国经济状况看起来非常非常的暗淡。”市场还在等待定于北京时间周三20:30Published in the United States4Monthly Consumer Price Index(CPI)数据。纽约联储主席威廉姆斯周二(5month9day)表示，通胀仍然过高，央行将在必要时再次加息，尽管美联储放弃了对未来加息必要性的指引。市场也在等待石油输出国组织(OPEC)将于周四(5month11day)发布的月度石油报告，以寻找该组织及其盟友(OPEC+)是否需要再次减产以支撑价格的线索。



　　原油日线级别震荡下跌后反弹；此前油价连续四个交易日反弹，但仍受到前期跌势50%Withdrawal position and4month28The dual resistance suppression of daily lows,MACDThe dead cross signal continues, and short-term oil prices face certain pullback risks, with initial support at10Daily moving average72.61Nearby,5The daily moving average is supported by71.85附近，若失守该位置，则增加短线看空信号；进一步支撑在70关口附近。不过，KDJThe golden fork runs well,KThe line shape is already preliminaryVForm reversal, in the process of falling behind5Recently, oil prices still tend to fluctuate upwards in the future, if they can break through4month28Daily low point73.92Nearby resistance is expected to be further explored21Daily moving average76.21Nearby resistance, early decline61.8%回撤位阻力也在该位置附近，若能进一步上破，则增加中线看涨信号；短线的话，55Daily moving average75.42附近也还存在一定的阻力。综合来看，今日短线操作思路郭晟鑫建议以回调低多为主，反弹高空为辅，上方短期重点关注73.8-74.3Frontline resistance, short-term focus below71.5-71Frontline support. Real time market changes,