Guo Shengxin:5.10What is the trend of gold's rise and fall today? Gold and crude oil market forecast

The meeting held was "productive", and in addition, the Federal Reserve's "number three" and New York Fed Chairman Williams stated that inflation remains high, making it premature to judge whether the interest rate hike is over. This also provides support for the US dollar index and US bond yields, with the US dollar index rebounding for two consecutive trading days,10The yield of one-year US Treasury bonds also maintained the gains of the previous two trading days, leading togoldBulls have concerns. Overall, due to the risk of debt default, banking turmoil, and international geopolitical turmoil in the United States, gold prices are still supported by safe haven buying. The expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut this year is also supporting gold prices in the medium to long term. However, in the short term, the US dollar and US bond yields have rebounded steadily, and US inflation remains high,CPIThe data may dampen the Federal Reserve's expectation of a significant interest rate cut this year, which may bring some downward pressure on gold prices in the short term.

Technical analysis of gold; Gold rebounded from the small positive line yesterday and stabilized at2000The integer level has rebounded, but the key support level has not been missed in the short term, making the sustainability of the space weak. The short-term uncertainty of the US dollar is uncertain, and the changes in yin and yang have temporarily prevented gold from moving out of one side. Whether it is currently confirming resistance by touching high or a strong recovery of lost ground remains to be confirmed. In the process of market consolidation, there are often times when there is a double dip, with the focus on whether to recover the high point or break down after reaching the high point2000Pass, construct a daily level two wave decline. At present, it is still in the process of morphological construction, and before breaking through in operation, it is treated with a high level oscillation approach.4The hour chart is stable2000Slowly rebounding and recovering above the level, there are signs of testing high points again in the short term. Looking back at the bullish and bearish changes in the form, will the pressure continue to accumulate momentum after reaching higher or will it continue to rise further. The short term may be accompanied by volatility, and the uncertain strength of the US dollar also makes it more difficult for gold to choose its direction in the short term. It will accompany the way of washing dishes and sawing. Breaking high up2078There is still a certain distance left, and we are currently breaking down2000There is also a certain distance, with the short line sweeping back and forth between neutral positions. Pay attention to the rhythm of the washing period and grasp the high altitude and low altitude within the interval. Overall, in terms of the short-term operation strategy for gold today, Guo Shengxin suggests that the main focus should be on a pullback and a long run, supplemented by a rebound in high altitude, with a focus on short-term operations above2045-2050Frontline resistance, short-term focus below2015-2010Frontline support. Real time market changes,

　　crude oilMarket trend analysis;

　　5month10On Wednesday, US crude oil was trading at72.48dollar/Near the barrel; Oil prices rose on Tuesday, rebounding from earlier intraday gains of over2%The decline was due to the market balancing the US government's plan to replenish the country's emergency oil reserves with the expected seasonal increase in demand. The Energy Minister of the United Arab Emirates, Mazruyi, stated on Monday that,OPEC+The additional voluntary production cuts implemented by oil producing countries are aimed at balancing the oil market. Mazruyi told reporters during the World Public Works Conference that he is concerned that low investment will lead to future supply shortages. I am not very concerned about very short-term issues, and I believe we can try to balance supply and demand. I am more concerned about the level of investment required in the coming years. US Energy Information Administration(EIA)Tuesday forecast,2023US crude oil production will increase by approximately5%Fuel demand will increase1%The agency also lowered its forecast for Brent crude oil and US crude oil prices.EIAThe total amount of oil consumption will be2023Annual increase nearly1%, reaching2,05010000 barrels/Day,2024Annual material increase1.4%, reaching208010000 barrels/Day. The growth of energy demand will drive the global oil market to2023Third quarter of the year and2024Achieve a balanced state between the first quarter of the year. Overall, despite the increase in US crude oil inventories last week, andEIAestimate2023US oil production will increase by approximately5%Bearish oil prices, but short-term oil prices may benefit more from the Biden administration's plan to repurchase oil later this year and rise; Oil prices are expected to rise within the day75dollar/Barrel gate.

Technical analysis of crude oil; Crude oil further rebounded upwards yesterday, with a strong four consecutive positive rebound at the bottom of the daily line and a downward trend yesterday71.30After stabilizing on the first line, it further recovered and rose, closing at a high level. The daily line combines with the previous bottom crossKThe double bottoms are currently confirmed to continue rebounding towards the neckline.4The hour chart points to the middle track, which was emphasized yesterday,4The hour chart structure rebounds and rises in a wave shape. After stepping back, pay attention to the shape of the stable track and then push the second wave up. Yesterday, after stepping back, it quickly turned positive and recovered, while breaking the downward trend line.4The hourly chart is in the process of organizing and accumulating momentum to further rebound upwards. Previously, oil prices rebounded for four consecutive trading days, but still suffered from previous declines50%Withdrawal position and4month28The dual resistance suppression of daily lows,MACDThe dead cross signal continues, and short-term oil prices face certain pullback risks, with initial support at10Daily moving average72.61Nearby,5The daily moving average is supported by71.85Nearby, if the position is missed, add a short-term bearish signal; However,KDJThe golden fork runs well,KThe line shape is already preliminaryVForm reversal, in the process of falling behind5Recently, oil prices still tend to fluctuate upwards in the future, if they can break through4month28Daily low point73.92Nearby resistance is expected to be further explored21Daily moving average76.21Nearby resistance, early decline61.8%The resistance to retreat is also near this position. If it can further break up, it will increase the bullish signal of the midline; Overall, Guo Shengxin suggests focusing on short-term operations for crude oil today74.5-75.0Frontline resistance, short-term focus below71.0-70.5Frontline support. Real time market changes,