Guide Metallographer:5.10Today's gold trend analysis, USCPI数据公布在即

Market Review:


InternationalgoldTuesday(5month9day)Volatile closing up, opening price2026.88dollar/Ounces, highest price2032.65dollar/Ounces, lowest price2019.26dollar/Ounces, closing price2026.71dollar/ounce.


Interpretation of the Golden News:


　　美联储官员威廉姆斯表示，看到紧缩的信贷条件影响经济的迹象。难以确定紧缩信贷将如何影响利率。部分信贷紧缩状况超出了美联储加息的(influence)范畴。货币政策侧重于经济，美联储的其他工具侧重于金融稳定。金融条件明显收紧，对整个银行系统没有担忧。预计今年通胀率将降至3.25%, to2025The year will decrease to2.0%。银行业压力的严重阶段可能已经结束。信贷紧缩可能会削弱美联储加息的力度。基准预测中不会出现经济衰退。今年没有理由降息。如果需要，美联储将再次加息。美联储尚未表示停止加息，通胀太高了。预计，今年美国经济将温和增长。


　　报道显示，美债务上限谈判，未取得任何进展。麦卡锡称其否定了将债务上限延长至9month30日的缓兵之计，需在下周前，原则上达成债务上限协议。拜登与麦卡锡双方定于12日再议，并可能在当地时间周二晚、周三继续会面。


　　惠誉分析，美国银行的存款挑战将在2023年对银行盈利能力、信贷和资本施加压力。预计2023年美国银行的财务表现将较弱。大多数美国银行在2023年时具有强大的盈利能力、资产质量和监管资本，这为应对短期挑战提供了评级余地。


　　分析称，虽然美联储降息预期“有点过于乐观和过早”，但金价短期内可能在1980-2060美元附近盘整。由于美联储将在6月份利率决定中考虑本周三(5month10day)公布的美国消费者价格指数(CPI)数据，目前市场处于“观望”模式。虽然信贷条件的收紧是由于美联储积极加息，而不是严重的银行业压力，助长了美国银行业不会走向更广泛的危机的希望，但信贷紧缩可能会持续下去，可能证明经济衰退的说法是合理的。如果有消息表明美国银行业进一步承压，将看到金价升向2100The level of the US dollar.


The world's largest goldETF--SPDR Gold TrustPosition decrease compared to the previous day2.6Tons, current position is934.95Tons.


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve6The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged on a monthly basis is81.1%Interest rate hike25The probability of a basis point is18.9%； reach7The probability of maintaining monthly interest rates at the current level is58.0%Accumulated interest rate reduction25The probability of a basis point is30.2%Accumulated interest rate increase25The probability of a basis point is11.9%。


Today's Gold Data:


　　14:00Germany4monthCPIMonthly rate final value


　　20:30U.S.A4Monthly and quarterly adjustmentsCPIthe annual rate


　　20:30U.S.A4After adjusting the roseCPIMonthly rate


　　20:30U.S.A4Monthly and quarterly adjustment coreCPIthe annual rate


Technical analysis of gold:


Yesterday's overall support for gold technology2020The level continues to fluctuate and recover from the bullish upward trend, while the Asia Europe market slightly rises to2028Under pressure at the checkpoint, it fell back and stabilized after a second dip in the afternoon2021The first line quickly rebounded, and the evening price rose again and pierced through2032The first line came under pressure again and fell, with prices rapidly falling before and after the US market2023Further rebound near the neck line of the first stable European market in the early morning, breaking through the high station2030First line closing, daykThe online closing fluctuated and rebounded to a mid day positive, with the overall price reaching a low point in non agricultural sectors last Friday2000整数关口后连续两个交易日迎来多头反弹回升修复，不过整体节奏上依旧处于多空震荡运行，近期价格大概率将延续以时间换空间宽幅震荡节奏，今日下方支撑关注2023-2020Near, above pressure2043-45附近，日内继续依托此区间高空低多循环参与看震荡；


　　日线周期局部录得大阴构筑黄昏之星形态，整体于2070附近构筑三山顶部形态，后市整体可看下行；现日线周期局部接连录得两根小阳，但行情仍处于黄昏之星形态之中，故反弹仍可继续接空。4小时周期整体于2060附近录得双顶形态，整体构筑平顶形态，后市整体可看下行；目前局部于支撑2000附近录得看涨吞没形态后，后续录得一系列的小实线和纺锤线呈震荡上行，短线并未见明显信号，但整体并未逾越大阴实体，故整体仍是看下行，可依托前市多空转折区间2038-2040跟进空单！


　　1小时图看，行情正处于关键节点，对于多头来说，如果不能再短时间内打破上方2045一线的阻力，那就是跟跳水前2050一线的横盘是一样的节奏了，上方不破，处于下行通道的k线就顺势下跌。操作上还是要高空为主。日线图看，k线有收到来自5Daily moving average2045一线的压制，也就是小时图上方压力的来源，话说回来，k线现在的形态是出于对前期行情下跌的技术反弹，所以中长线看来，还是要继续看回调。综合来看，今日黄金短线操作思路上指南金师建议反弹做空为主，回调做多为辅，上方短期重点关注2040-2045Frontline resistance, short-term focus below2020-2010Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　5.10Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds2038-2040Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target2030-2025Nearby, break down and take a look2020frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback2020-2022Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target2030-2040Nearby, break down and take a look2045frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)