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goldMessage interpretation:
这两天第一共和银行的存款逃离危机还在持续,市场担忧情绪重新打压美联储加息定价,6The monthly Federal Reserve interest rate swap contract currently reflects that the central bank's benchmark interest rate is only higher than the current effective federal funds rate20A basis point, which implies two future occurrencesFOMCThe possibility of an interest rate hike during the meeting is approximately80%,也就是说,5月加息结束后,可能就真的不会再有加息的动作了。
这让人想到了3月份也是在加息前爆出了硅谷银行的挤兑事件,差点让美联储停止加息的步伐,这如出一辙的手法目的也很明显,就是给下周即将召开的议息会议施压,好让华尔街有充分的时间跑出手中的筹码。所谓的“危机”只是一个被操纵的提线木偶而已。
With5month3日加息的临近,美国的债务上限距离到期也越来越近,昨日财政部长耶伦表示,美国债务违约对经济来说将是灾难性的,因为这会引发大规模失业、财政支出停摆和利率“永久”上升。耶伦周二在华盛顿的一次会议上表示:“自1789年以来,美国政府从未出现债务违约,这种情况应该保持下去。”(这种两党之间的博弈游戏究竟以什么结局收场也是值得关注的!!)
Today's Gold Data:
09:30Australia Q1CPIthe annual rate
09:30Australia3Monthly and quarterly adjustmentsCPIthe annual rate
14:00Germany5monthGfkConsumer confidence index
16:00Switzerland4monthZEWInvestor confidence index
18:00britain4monthCBIRetail sales difference
20:30U.S.A3Monthly rate of durable goods orders
Technical analysis of gold:
Gold rebounded and measured its pressure yesterday2000On the first line, the market continued to fall under pressure, and before late trading, the market fell to1976Nearby, the US market rebounded and pulled up during the trading session. Later in the night, due to market speculation on risk aversion, gold also benefited from a rebound, and the high point was measured to2003On the first line, the daily line receives a small yang.
In terms of daily structure, although gold closed positive yesterday, changing the continuous Yin Yang interlocking situation for many days, the direction is in the same direction as the US index. The state of rising at the same time indicates that the main reason for this rise is due to the rise of risk aversion, and it is technically abnormal to break out of this trend. Although the gold market closed positive, it still did not stand firmly above the moving average band in terms of technology, leaving technical adjustment risks. However, the time required for further downward adjustments may be extended. Still paying close attention to gold during the day10Daily and Trend Lines2000-03Nearby competition, if the risk aversion sentiment within the day does not fade, then gold is allowed to sprint once2010However, this trend is still beyond the expectation of the technical structure. After all, it is also affected by market sentiment, which is difficult to control. Therefore, we only keep this expectation, but there is no need to follow this emotional trend. Technically, it is still advisable to adjust expectations, but it will take some time to digest the current risk aversion sentiment. Therefore, there may not be much room for gold to retreat in the short term. Let's continue to pay attention below5Daily line1990Competition, important short-term support, still paying attention to the trend line below1980-76One area.
Based on the hourly chart, although there is a technical need for the overnight gold's downward recovery, the continuous rebound in the end is still quite unexpected. At present, gold is still fluctuating within the hourly chart level range, but the short-term structure has been lifted by the overnight rebound. The intraday market may have a certain continuation of strong performance, and the upper part of the day can continue to pay attention2000-03If there is pressure in the area, if it breaks through, you can measure it up and see again2010Nearby pressure testing. Follow below in the day1993-90Step back test in the area, if the market falls back within the day1990Below, it is expected to return to a technically weak state in the short term, which can still be seen in the later stage1980-76Belt testing. Overall, today's gold short-term operation strategy is guided by the guidance of gold analysts, who suggest that the main focus is to rebound and short, supplemented by a pullback and long, with a focus on the short-term above2000-2003Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1976-1980Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.
4.26Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:
Empty order strategy:
Strategy 1: Gold rebounds2000-2003Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1990-1985Nearby, break down and take a look1980frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)
Multiple order strategy:
Strategy 2: Gold Callback1976-1980Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1985-1990Nearby, break down and take a look1995frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)
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