Guide Metallographer:4.26Today's gold trend analysis shows that gold prices remain volatile before interest rate hikes

　　goldMessage interpretation:


Looking Forward to Today Wednesday(4month26day)International gold market continues to encounter obstacles after a brief strengthening10The daily moving average resistance performance retreats, and the US dollar index continues to maintain its stable performance with a strong overnight momentum, with expectations of breaking through the daily chart's mid track resistance, which puts pressure on gold prices. However, US Treasury bonds10If the annual yield still tends to decline, it will limit the strength of gold price decline. In addition, recent data still suggests concerns about a slowdown in the US economic outlook, and subsequent data, including the USGDPAnd personal consumption expenses(PCE)The price index is expected to continue to weaken, which will bring some buyers back into the market. Therefore, overall, short-term gold prices still tend to be mainly volatile.


Focus on the United States within the day3The expected monthly rate of durable goods orders is biased towards bearish gold prices, which will exert some pressure on gold prices. At present, it is still mainly fluctuating.


In addition, it is also important to focus on the actual situation in the first quarter of the United States at the end of this weekGDPInitial value of annualized quarterly rate, from the United States to4month22The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits for the current week and the announcement of personal consumption expenses in the United States(PCE)Price index. Market expectations continue to lean towards bullish gold prices, but if they are stronger than expectedGDPThe positive impact of growth should have the opposite effect, pushing up the US dollar and suppressing gold prices. If inflation data also rises or falls again, it will cause fluctuations in gold prices. Overall5Before the policy meeting in June, the trend still tended to be mainly volatile.


Fundamentally, just one week before the next Fed interest rate meeting, the market is experiencing another surprise. The US banking crisis has reignited, and the US economic data is mixed. The Federal Reserve's interest rate swaps are no longer fully priced, and the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by mid year.


On Monday, United Nations Secretary General Guterres, along with the ambassadors of the United States, Britain, France, and Japan to the United Nations, condemned the Kremlin's invasion of Ukraine at the "Effective Multilateralism" meeting chaired by Foreign Minister Lavrov in Moscow. Some analysts believe that this is the beginning of the Kiev spring counterattack, and the world faces the real risk of major power conflicts. The tense relationship between major powers is at a historical high.


The risk of conflicts arising from accidents or miscalculations is also increasing, and world tensions are heating up... It is very likely that Russia is on the brink of a new world war. Former President and Prime Minister of Russia and current Vice Chairman of the Kremlin Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, warned at a meeting in Moscow that Russia will not avoid using nuclear weapons to combat "aggression".


Due to the Federal Reserve5There is still uncertainty about the next steps after the month, and gold is still trapped in a tricky range. The market now expects US interest rates to peak in the summer and12The interest rate cut before the month, in the long run, gold is still likely to rise again.


Today's Gold Data:


　　09:30Australia Q1CPIthe annual rate


　　09:30Australia3Monthly and quarterly adjustmentsCPIthe annual rate


　　14:00Germany5monthGfkConsumer confidence index


　　16:00Switzerland4monthZEWInvestor confidence index


　　18:00britain4monthCBIRetail sales difference


　　20:30U.S.A3Monthly rate of durable goods orders


Technical analysis of gold:


Gold rebounded and measured its pressure yesterday2000On the first line, the market continued to fall under pressure, and before late trading, the market fell to1976Nearby, the US market rebounded and pulled up during the trading session. Later in the night, due to market speculation on risk aversion, gold also benefited from a rebound, and the high point was measured to2003On the first line, the daily line receives a small yang.


In terms of daily structure, although gold closed positive yesterday, changing the continuous Yin Yang interlocking situation for many days, the direction is in the same direction as the US index. The state of rising at the same time indicates that the main reason for this rise is due to the rise of risk aversion, and it is technically abnormal to break out of this trend. Although the gold market closed positive, it still did not stand firmly above the moving average band in terms of technology, leaving technical adjustment risks. However, the time required for further downward adjustments may be extended. Still paying close attention to gold during the day10Daily and Trend Lines2000-03Nearby competition, if the risk aversion sentiment within the day does not fade, then gold is allowed to sprint once2010However, this trend is still beyond the expectation of the technical structure. After all, it is also affected by market sentiment, which is difficult to control. Therefore, we only keep this expectation, but there is no need to follow this emotional trend. Technically, it is still advisable to adjust expectations, but it will take some time to digest the current risk aversion sentiment. Therefore, there may not be much room for gold to retreat in the short term. Let's continue to pay attention below5Daily line1990Competition, important short-term support, still paying attention to the trend line below1980-76One area.


Based on the hourly chart, although there is a technical need for the overnight gold's downward recovery, the continuous rebound in the end is still quite unexpected. At present, gold is still fluctuating within the hourly chart level range, but the short-term structure has been lifted by the overnight rebound. The intraday market may have a certain continuation of strong performance, and the upper part of the day can continue to pay attention2000-03If there is pressure in the area, if it breaks through, you can measure it up and see again2010Nearby pressure testing. Follow below in the day1993-90Step back test in the area, if the market falls back within the day1990Below, it is expected to return to a technically weak state in the short term, which can still be seen in the later stage1980-76Belt testing. Overall, today's gold short-term operation strategy is guided by the guidance of gold analysts, who suggest that the main focus is to rebound and short, supplemented by a pullback and long, with a focus on the short-term above2000-2003Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1976-1980Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　4.26Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds2000-2003Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1990-1985Nearby, break down and take a look1980frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1976-1980Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1985-1990Nearby, break down and take a look1995frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


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