Guide Metallographer:4.25Today's gold trend analysis shows that gold prices have bottomed out and rebounded or regained their upward trend

Market Review:


InternationalgoldMonday(4month24day)Volatile closing up, opening price1980.54dollar/Ounces, highest price1986.99dollar/Ounces, lowest price1973.92dollar/Ounces, closing price1984.61dollar/ounce.


Interpretation of the Golden News:


The United States announced on Monday4Monthly Dallas Fed Business Activity Index Record-23.4, lower than market expectations-11, previous value is-15.7.


The review stated that the performance of the first quarter was in line with expectations, with all markets weakening except for the automotive market. There are signs that inventory in the automotive industry is rapidly increasing, so it is expected that the growth of the automotive market will soon weaken. Apart from a significant macroeconomic slowdown, there is no concern about long-term demand. Overinventory is expected and usually takes three to six quarters to deplete to meet terminal demand. The economic growth has significantly slowed down, and new orders have almost stopped.


ECB Executive Director Schnabel stated that further interest rate hikes are clearly needed, but the magnitude of the hike will depend on the upcoming data and cannot be ruled out50The possibility of a basis point. So far, data shows that inflation is higher than expected and the economy is more resilient than expected. There is no reason to believe that an economic recession is imminent.


The European Central Bank's governing committee Villeruwa said that it may be necessary to further raise interest rates, but there must be some restrictions on the number and extent. The European Central Bank will maintain interest rates at peak levels whenever necessary. There are still no clear and consistent signs of potential inflation(trend)Changes occur.


European Central Bank Regulatory Commission Mahluf stated that based on current data, it is too early to start planning to suspend tightening policies. We will pay special attention to the upcoming data in our next policy decision. Based on the evidence we have so far, interest rates will need to remain at restrictive levels.


The world's largest goldETF--SPDR Gold TrustIncrease in position compared to the previous day3.75Tons, current position is927.43Tons.


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve5The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged on a monthly basis is1.1%Interest rate hike25The probability of a basis point is98.9%； reach6The probability of maintaining monthly interest rates at the current level is1%Accumulated interest rate increase25The probability of a basis point is90%Accumulated interest rate increase50The probability of a basis point is8.9%。


Today's Gold Data:


　　14:00Switzerland3Monthly trade account


　　18:00britain4monthCBIIndustrial order difference


　　21:00U.S.A2monthFHFAMonthly rate of housing price index


　　21:00U.S.A2monthS&P/CS20Annual rate of housing price index in major cities


　　22:00U.S.A3Annualized total monthly sales of new homes


　　22:00U.S.A4Monthly Conference Chamber Consumer Confidence Index


　　22:00U.S.A4Monthly Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index


Technical analysis of gold:


Monday's gold market is in a narrow range of shocks, and the high point is1987The first line is under pressure, and the low point is at1974The US dollar has stabilized. From the daily trend chart, gold prices have changed from2049After the decline, there has been no pattern of a big positive recovery, and the low level repeatedly fluctuates. This kind of oscillation intensifies after the big negative retreat, and there will be subsequent actions to break the low. Current Gold1990The strength of the bulls at the checkpoint is equal, and the bulls in the European market are slightly stronger. Currently, it seems that they are only slightly stronger, only rebounding to1987The checkpoint will retreat to the origin, and the lowest retreat from the opening of the Asian market will be1876After the first line, gold presents a form of shock and slow rise. If the current structure adjustment is continued, the reason will continue downward. Although it is not strong enough at present, it also belongs to a chronic upward trend, which is also a form of bottom stop.


From the trend pattern in the early stage, it can be seen that the continuous decline in the early stage is accompanied by a rebound, with the self shadow line falling and then rebounding upwards, and the secondary decline continues to rise and reach a high point2048On the first line, during the continuous fermentation stage of upright bulls, data news guided the gold high to fall back in one go and lead to a sharp decline. After the sharp decline, the market remained basically in a downward trend, without a second upward trend. Currently, gold relies on1970If the rebound cannot break through and fall for three consecutive times, then there is a high probability of technical rebound testing pressure. Now the market is starting to worry about the Federal Reserve's debt ceiling, and gold bulls are starting to stir up trouble again. Technically, the pressure is concentrated in areas with dense trading volume2008Position, daily moving average pressure2002Position, which means that the bulls will test again today2002reach2008Regional pressure, if the breakthrough here continues to challenge the previous high position, the rebound here cannot break through, and there is a trend of rising and falling at any time. Technical support moves up1980reach1985Area.


Today's operation is very simple, falling back1980reach1985Multiple stops in batches are the latest low1970That's fine, of course radical1988Regional participation means that the stop loss is slightly larger. After all, it is best for long and short stops to be close to the safe edge of the long and short top and bottom. This kind of rebound and bottom rubbing is normal, and it belongs to consuming the bottom bullish position. Once the bottom fluctuates, once it rises, there may be a big positive pull action. Overall, in today's gold short-term operation guidelines, the gold analyst suggests that the main focus should be on a pullback and long, supplemented by a rebound and short, and the short-term focus should be on the above2010-2012Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1980-1982Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　4.25Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds2008-2010Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target2000-1995Nearby, break down and take a look1985frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1983-1985Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1995-2005Nearby, break down and take a look2010frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


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