Guide Metallographer:4.19Today's gold trend analysis, gold fluctuates and adjusts, with similar trends...

　　goldMessage interpretation:


Wednesday(4month19day)The international gold price has fallen again, and the US dollar index is trying to regain ground. But market participants continue to evaluate the Federal Reserve's5The possibility of raising interest rates again in the month and then suspending them. Given the increase in financing costs and the tightening of credit conditions by US commercial banks, the Federal Reserve is not expected to further extend interest rate hikes


Due to rising short-term inflation expectations, the Federal Reserve is expected to continue raising interest rates. This, combined with the positive tone of the stock market, may prevent traders from making aggressive bullish bets on gold.


　　COMEXgoldfuturesOvernight open positions in the market are nearing growth300Share, end two consecutive drops. On the contrary, trading volume has shrunk for the second consecutive day and is currently declining by more than10.5Ten thousand contracts. The rise in gold prices coincided with a slight increase in open positions and a significant decrease in trading volume, opening the door for short-term price consolidation.


The University of Michigan survey released last week showed that,4The one-year inflation expectation for the month has increased by a full percentage point compared to the previous value4.6%。 In addition, the New York Federal Reserve reported on Monday that its manufacturing activity showed growth for the first time in five months. This in turn increases people's awareness of5Raise interest rates again at the next Federal Reserve meeting in the month25A basis point bet.


Federal Reserve officials will withdraw4month22Starting from the day of entry5Silence period before the monthly meeting.CMEThe latest data from the "Federal Reserve Observation" tool shows that the Federal Reserve5Monthly interest rate hike25The probability of a basis point is86.6%Then pause the interest rate hike cycle, expected to11Interest rates will begin to decrease in January.


The prospect of further tightening by the Federal Reserve has kept the yield of US treasury bond bonds at a high level, which in turn has restricted the price rise of gold, a non yield asset. At the same time, China's better than expected economic growth has eased concerns about global economic recession and boosted investor confidence.


According to data released on Tuesday, the Chinese economy grew in the first quarter of this year4.5%Much higher than expected and also much higher than the previous quarter's2.9%。 This in turn weakens the demand for traditional safe haven assets and limits the further rise of gold.


Due to the Federal Reserve's expected5Raising interest rates in the month seems feasible in the short term to meet the demand for the US dollar. At the same time, as financing costs increase and US commercial banks tighten credit conditions, household retail demand has also decreased. The Federal Reserve will not further extend interest rate hikes to avoid indulging the economy into a recession.


　　IGMarket analystYeap Jun RongRepresent:“5Monthly interest rate increase25The expectation of basis points has been reflected in market pricing, so the main focus is on whether the Federal Reserve will issue a signal to suspend interest rate hikes in the future. Although this may provide support for gold prices, considering the recent rebound and technical correction demand, after the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook is confirmed,(Gold price multiple orders)The possibility of some liquidation still exists


Today's Gold Data:


　　14:00britain3monthCPIMonthly rate


　　14:00britain3Monthly Retail Price Index Monthly Rate


　　16:00eurozone2Monthly adjusted current account


　　17:00eurozone3monthCPIAnnual rate final value and monthly rate


The next day02:00Federal Reserve Announces Economic Situation Brown Book


The next day05:30Federal Reserve Gullsby delivers a speech


Technical analysis of gold:


The recent trend of gold prices has been quite demonic, and both long and short positions are not continuous30-40The amplitude of a single point, yesterday's bullish market, although there was a correction at midnight2003But it did not break the range, hitting the lowest point once1987Bounce to1994The first line has been sold out, and now it has broken through. The lowest quotation1969On the first line, it directly pierced the volatile market range, and from the hourly line, it touched three times1981If four is less than three, then the third time this time it will directly break through, and the support below is the early stage1972Low opening to1964One line, falling to1950Starting to stabilize and rise to1964Directly recovered the decline,1964Resistance becomes support,1964Also, the support is relatively strong. Careful students, please take a look3month28Okay, that night, from1982fall to1966After stabilizing, it began to rise and continued to rise to2003This is also a rising point. So the low point for this time is temporarily set at1964On the first line, so if the European market gives a rebound, we can short it, while the US market continues. The specific strategy is as follows:


　　1Rebound1985Short selling,1990Stop loss1996, look at the goal1964Break the position to see1950


　　2First contact1964Long, stop loss1958, look at the goal1973-1976, then continue to be empty, stop loss default7Point15-20Points