Guide Metallographer:4.19Today's Gold Trend Analysis, Expectations for Fed Rate hikes Continuously Fermented

Market Review:


InternationalgoldTuesday(4month18day)Volatile closing up, opening price1989.79dollar/Ounces, highest price2011.64dollar/Ounces, lowest price1987.11dollar/Ounces, closing price2008.28dollar/ounce.


Interpretation of the Golden News:


The United States announced on Tuesday3Annual record of total monthly construction of new houses14210000 households, higher than market expectations140Ten thousand households, with a previous value of145万户；美国3Total monthly construction permits recorded141.3万户，低于市场预期145.5Ten thousand households, with a previous value of152.4Ten thousand households.


Commentary states that the United States3月份单户住宅建设增加，而未来的建筑许可激增，这表明住房市场最糟糕的低迷时期可能已经过去。美国商务部周二表示，占住房建设大部分的单户住房开工率上升了2.7%，经季节性调整后，上个月为86.1万套。2月份的数据被修正得更高，显示单户住宅建设速度上升到83.8万套，而不是之前报告的83万套速度。美联储激进的加息已经将住房市场推入衰退，住宅投资连续七个季度收缩，这是2008年金融危机引发的住房泡沫破裂以来最长的一次。然而，有迹象表明，美国住房市场正在非常低迷的水平上稳定下来。全国住房建筑商协会的住房市场指数在4月份攀升至七个月高点。抵押贷款利率已经从去年的高点回落。


　　美联储官员博斯蒂克表示，经济需要放缓以帮助降低通胀水平。经济表现强劲，超出预期。预计加息结束后，美联储将在相当一段时间维持利率不变。基线预测是在下次加息后保持利率不变。预计还会再加息一次；经济仍有大量动力，通胀过高。


　　美联储布拉德表示，美联储需要对夏天到秋天的一系列数据作出反应，不应该给出前瞻性指引说我们不会采取任何行动，以防到时通胀出现过热或更具粘性的状况。布拉德表示，一旦利率处于“足够限制性”的水平，他认为“利率将在更高位置保持更长时间"，以确保通胀完全得到控制。他认为，实现这一目标不需要大幅提高失业率。他称人们、企业和地方政府需要更多的时间来花掉他们在疫情时期的储蓄，而且，随着消费的放缓，企业之间的价格竞争将随着时间的推移而抑制通胀。布拉德说，对经济衰退的预测是来自那些“过于看重利率迅速上升的模型"。“通胀正在下降，但没有华尔街预期的那么快。”鉴于近期数据显示通胀仍在持续，而整体经济似乎有望继续增长，尽管是缓慢增长，美联储应会继续加息。他反驳了有关美国在不久的将来出现银行业危机或衰退，或两个危机一起来袭的观点，他说：“华尔街非常认同六个月后将出现衰退的观点，但这并不是解读经济扩张的真正方式。”“劳动力市场似乎非常非常强劲。传统观点认为，如果你有一个强劲的劳动力市场，那么它就会带动强劲的消费……这是经济的很大一部分·……现在预测2023年下半年会出现经济衰退似乎不太合适。”布拉德还表示，如果上个月两家美国银行的倒闭会引发一场危机，那么它很可能会在圣路易斯联邦储备银行的金融压力指数等指标上表现出来。但该指标很快就回到了正常水平。“就目前而言，看起来并没有发生太多事情。”


Bank of AmericaCEO表示，美国银行的存款保持良好，好于预期。预计下季度美银的净利息收入将录得亏损，但目前“感觉良好”。目前美国的银行系统已经恢复稳定。


　　高盛经济学家上调了对欧洲央行终端利率的预测，反映出金融市场紧张局势的缓解和持续强劲的潜在通胀。以Jari Stehn为首的分析师表示，料欧洲央行将在5Month6Month and7Monthly interest rate increase25个基点，下个月会议上加息25Basis points or50个基点的概率“很接近”。他们表示：“由于数据更为强劲，包括银行贷款状况不大可能进一步恶化的迹象，以及4月份通胀数据走强，加息50个基点是很有可能的。”他们称：“从现在开始，欧洲央行将以更渐进的速度收紧政策的原因包括，最近银行业面临的压力可能会对银行放贷产生一些影响。”“我们预计未来几个月核心通胀将有所降温，全球前景的不确定性已经上升。”


The world's largest goldETF--SPDR Gold TrustPosition decrease compared to the previous day1.44Tons, current position is924.26Tons.


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve5The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged on a monthly basis is18.4%Interest rate hike25The probability of a basis point is81.6%； reach6The probability of maintaining monthly interest rates at the current level is13.1%Accumulated interest rate increase25The probability of a basis point is63.3%Accumulated interest rate increase50The probability of a basis point is23.6%。


Today's Gold Data:


　　14:00britain3monthCPIMonthly rate


　　14:00britain3Monthly Retail Price Index Monthly Rate


　　16:00eurozone2Monthly adjusted current account


　　17:00eurozone3monthCPIAnnual rate final value and monthly rate


The next day02:00Federal Reserve Announces Economic Situation Brown Book


The next day05:30Federal Reserve Gullsby delivers a speech


Technical analysis of gold:


Yesterday's overall stabilization of gold technology1991The checkpoint is experiencing a bottoming out, recovery, and repair, with prices in Asia and Europe relying on1993The checkpoint slowly rose and rebounded, further rebounding in the afternoon and rising to2000Above the checkpoint, there continued to be lateral fluctuations, with prices slightly rising and piercing in the evening2005The checkpoint once again came under pressure and fell due to fluctuations, ultimately stabilizing the gold price1991The checkpoint ushers in a bottoming out and a deep reboundvRebound closing, daykThe online closing fluctuated and rebounded to a positive, with the overall price at1991Above, there is a form of support and stabilization, and there is still further upward impact in the Asian stock market today4Hourly opening and closing2015Expectations for the checkpoint, support and attention below today1997-1995Near, above pressure2015At the checkpoint, we will first rely on this range to see the long and wide range of fluctuations within the day. In the middle position, we will always look more and move less, and be cautious in pursuing orders. We will patiently wait for key points to enter, and the recent strong and weak divide between long and short will be marked2015At the checkpoint, the daily level is suppressed below this position to continue watching the oscillation;


Currently, from4Looking at the hourly chart, the early low point1981Unable to break, the current bearish trend has ended, and gold is starting a new upward trend. A long cross appears at the bottomKToday, I will emphasize not to chase the empty space. Currently10Moving average resistance2002There has been a breakthrough on the front line, and it is expected to further lift the upward trend in the evening, while the middle track2015It is an important obstacle for today's upward momentum. Only after passing can we strengthen and test the previous high. At present, the rhythm is also forcing upward momentum, combined with the medium track of the Bollinger Belt as the lifeline of short-term bulls. The medium track is not lost, and the short track may be reorganized and corrected. Strong support for multi head channels1981At this position, the trend of breaking the bull trend will not change. Today, we will step back on the channel support and move it up1997On the front line, it is currently stabilizing here. It is expected that after overnight market washing, the upward momentum will increase today, and focus on Monday's high2015Once the pressure is broken, it is easy to fluctuate and rise to2040-2050Qian Gao, as mentioned earlier, the current gold trend will not change due to last week's significant decline. Overall, today's gold short-term operation strategy is guided by the guidance of gold analysts, who suggest that the main focus is to rebound and short, supplemented by a lot of underperformance, with a focus on the short-term above2005-2010Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1981-1976Frontline support.


　　4.19Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds2005-2010Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1990-1985Nearby, break down and take a look1980frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1981-1976Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1995-2000Nearby, break down and take a look2005frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)