Guide Metallographer:4.18Today's gold trend analysis suggests that the short-term pullback in gold may continue

　　goldMessage interpretation:


Tuesday(4month18day)The international gold price has slightly increased, but investors hope that the Federal Reserve will provide a clearer stance on the future prospects of monetary policy. Federal Reserve officials will withdraw4month22Starting from the day of entry5The silence period before the monthly meeting, before which the United States will also announce4Monthly Purchasing Managers'Index.


Data released overnight shows that manufacturing activity in New York State has grown for the first time in five months, and the confidence of American single family residential builders has increased4For the fourth consecutive month in a row, the price of gold fell by about1%To the lowest point in the past two weeks1981.06dollar/Ounces, although the final decline was less than0.3%。


Due to the lack of belief among Fed policymakers in easing inflationary pressures, the upward trend in inflation has not yet subsided. Richmond Fed Chairman Barkin said during the overnight New York session that he hopes to see more inflation return2%Evidence of the target.


The combination of positive data and recent hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials has led to a decrease in the attractiveness of gold denominated in US dollars to overseas buyers, while10The yield of one-year US Treasury bonds has climbed to its highest point in nearly three weeks3.608%。CMEThe latest display of the "Federal Reserve Observation" tool shows that market pricing5Monthly interest rate increase25The probability of a basis point is87.1%The interest rate reduction within the year will not be earlier than9month.


A builder from Birmingham, AlabamaNAHBchairmanAlicia HueyIn a statement, the builder noted that mortgage interest rates have further decreased to6%The following will reflect further demand for housing. Nevertheless, the industry continues to be plagued by issues with building materials, including the inability to obtain power transformer equipment


　　华侨银行foreign exchangeStrategistChristopher WongGiven the significant fluctuations in gold prices before and the lack of significant economic data this week, we anticipate that gold prices will be1980-2020Consolidation within the US dollar range


　　OANDASenior market analyst Edward Moya stated in a report: "The market is facing too much geopolitical situation and uncertainty in central bank monetary policy, and the path for gold prices to move towards record breaking regions still exists


The rebound in manufacturing in New York State is an encouraging sign for national manufacturing activity, which has also been affected by the shift in spending from goods to services. Supply Management Association(ISM)Manufacturing industryPMIIt has been shrinking for five consecutive months, and all its sub items have been3All months are below50The threshold, this is from2009For the first time since.


Analysts at Daoming Securities stated that,4The S&P Purchasing Managers'Index at the beginning of this month will fully reflect the US economic situation after the bank turmoil for the first time. be careful,3The monthly data was not obviously affected by the bank turmoil, but it may be too early to reflect. At that time, the Purchasing Managers'Index of manufacturing and service industries both recorded the third consecutive growth, and the Purchasing Managers' Index of the service industry further entered the expansion range.


Today's Gold Data:


　　14:00britain2Three months in a monthILOunemployment rate


　　14:00britain3Monthly unemployment rate


　　14:00britain3Number of applicants for monthly unemployment benefits


　　17:00Germany4monthZEWEconomic Sentiment Index


　　17:00eurozone4monthZEWEconomic Sentiment Index


　　17:00eurozone2Monthly adjusted trade account


　　20:30Canada3monthCPIMonthly rate


　　20:30U.S.A3Total monthly construction permits


　　20:30U.S.A3Annualized total monthly construction of new houses


Technical analysis of gold:


The weekly chart is more obvious, with the triple tops all at short-term highs. After the tops appear, they should be corrected for fluctuations and fall back. However, the current trend happens to touch the shadow line of the previous high position, so whether to continue the downward trend after the current sharp drop is crucial. Pay attention to the high position of yesterday's rebound in the day, and secondly, if it cannot effectively rebound, continue to look for a downward trend.


Gold Yesterday's Daily Cross Small YinKThe close of the trading line is currently only a correction, combined with the short-term strong rebound of the US dollar, which limits the rise of gold prices and has been partially corrected through backtracking. Since it is a callback correction, the space can be deep or shallow. It depends on whether it is a strong correction or a weak correction.4The hourly chart shows a second correction, but its persistence is not strong, and the closing price remains stable at1981Above the low point. Make today's bulls face choices. It's in the1981Will the upper level stabilize and rebound, or will it break down1981.。 If it breaks down, it will further deepen the adjustment space and fall down, while if it stabilizes, it will rebound and regain lost ground. The strength of the Asian market is not obvious. You can place the operating point behind the European market and temporarily pay attention to yesterday's range in the short term2015-1981The breakthrough between them continues. The key point in the morning is to continue to rebound if there is no decline. If there is no effective decline around the afternoon of the day, you can directly follow the trend and continue to look up. If there is a continuous decline, the market is making adjustments!


Two points need to be noted now. Firstly, the confirmation of bearish positions in the large cycle daily chart is currently moving towards an insert downward trend. Secondly, there is a serious deviation from the four hour decline. Today, we will continue to focus on the second line, accelerating the downward trend and not breaking it1980It will form a triple bottom to correct. However, there has not been a weak bullish signal yet, just a deviation in the indicators. Therefore, we need to closely monitor short-term changes, as this signal can easily lead to a sub peak level market trend in the daily chart. Overall, in today's gold short-term operation guidelines, gold analysts suggest a pullback and long selling as the main approach, supplemented by a rebound and short selling, with a focus on short-term trading above2010-2015Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1990-1988Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　4.18Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds2010-2015Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target2000-1995Nearby, break down and take a look1990frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1990-1993Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target2005-2010Nearby, break down and take a look2015frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)