Guide Metallographer:4.13Today's gold trend analysis, USCPIData below expectations

Market Review:


InternationalgoldWednesday(4month12day)Volatile closing up, opening price2003.93dollar/Ounces, highest price2028.14dollar/Ounces, lowest price2000.81dollar/Ounces, closing price2005.64dollar/ounce.


Interpretation of the Golden News:


Wednesday's announcement of the United States3After adjusting the roseCPIMonthly rate recorded0.1%, lower than market expectations0.2%, previous value is0.4%； U.S.A3Monthly and quarterly adjustmentsCPIAnnual rate recorded5%, lower than market expectations5.2%, previous value is6.00%； U.S.A3Monthly and quarterly adjustment coreCPIAnnual rate recorded5.6%, in line with market expectations, with a previous value of5.5%。


　　周四凌晨公布的美联储会议纪要显示，多位与会者指出，在政策审议中，他们考虑了在本次会议上保持利率目标区间稳定是否合适。他们指出，这样做将有更多时间来评估近期银行业发展和货币政策累计收紧的金融和经济影响。然而，这些与会者也注意到，美联储与其他政府机构协调采取的行动有助于稳定银行业的状况，降低经济活动和通货膨胀的近期风险。因此，鉴于通胀上升、近期经济数据强劲，以及他们致力于将通胀降至委员会2%的长期目标，这些与会者认为将利率目标区间上调25个基点是合适的。由于通货膨胀仍然处于不可接受的高水平，与会者预计实际国内生产总值将需要一段时间的低于趋势的增长，以使总需求与总供给更好地平衡，从而减轻通胀压力。许多与会者表示，在银行业压力开始之前的数据使他们认为利率的适当路径略高于他们在12月会议时的评估。在考虑到银行业的发展后，与会者表示，他们的政策利率预期(即今年底5.1%Interest rate)目前与去年12月基本持平。联储工作人员对美国经济的预测显示，美国今年的实际GDP增长放缓，劳动力市场也有所走软。鉴于他们对最近银行业发展的潜在经济影响的评估，美联储工作人员在3月会议时的预测包括，今年晚些时候开始出现温和衰退，随后两年将出现复苏。预计2024年的实际GDP增长仍将低于工作人员对潜在产出增长的估计，然后预计2025OfGDP增长将高于潜在增长。产品和劳动力市场的资源利用预期都远低于1月的预期。


　　美联储官员戴丽表示，减缓经济增长并不意味着经济衰退。最可能的情况是不会出现经济衰退。虽然还没有到达那一步，但我们正在看到劳动力市场的降温迹象。政策收紧已经到了一个点，我们不希望每次会议都继续提高利率。通胀预期已经稳定，这允许我们用几年时间来降低通胀。预计2023年底的通胀率将略高于3%。有充分理由认为美国在没有更多加息的情况下(Economics)会放缓。


Federal Reserve SpeakerNick Timiraos撰文表示，今日公布的美联储会议纪要显示，官员在上个月的会议上考虑过不加息，但最终认为监管机构已经缓解了银行业的压力，加息25个基点是合理的。会议纪要称，展望未来，官员们得出结论，鉴于价格压力和劳动力需求的强度，“他们预计一些额外的政策收紧可能是合适的”。几乎所有参加上个月会议的18名官员都预计，今年有必要再加息一次(即点阵图预期)。多数人预计，如果今年经济增长乏力，劳动力需求降温，美联储此后将维持利率不变。官员们表示，在考虑下一步行动时，他们将密切关注包括银行贷款状况在内的其他经济活动指标。但官员们亦暗示，上个月银行系统的压力加剧后，利率前景变得更加不确定。


　　蒙特利尔银行策略师IanLyngen评美联储会议纪要，FOMC3月会议纪要几乎没有带来影响市场的意外——尽管我们认为会议纪要的基调是鸽派的。美联储工作人员预计今年晚些时候将开始出现“温和衰退”，这与我们的预期是一致的，不过从政策制定者那里听到的消息更加巩固了这一预期。


　　高盛分析，不再预计美联储6月加息。仍预计美联储将在5Monthly interest rate hike25Basis points.


The world's largest goldETF--SPDR Gold TrustIncrease in position compared to the previous day1.15Tons, current position is934.08Tons.


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve5The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged on a monthly basis is33.2%Interest rate hike25The probability of a basis point is66.8%； reach6The probability of maintaining monthly interest rates at the current level is29.6%Accumulated interest rate increase25The probability of a basis point is63.1%Accumulated interest rate increase50The probability of a basis point is7.3%。


Today's Gold Data:


　　14:00Germany3monthCPIMonthly rate final value


　　14:00Germany2Monthly and quarterly adjustment of current account


　　14:00britain2Three months in a monthGDPMonthly rate


　　14:00britain2Monthly manufacturing output rate


　　14:00britain2Monthly industrial output rate


　　14:00britain2Commodity Trade Account after Monthly Adjustment


　　17:00eurozone2Monthly industrial output rate


　　20:30U.S.A3monthPPIAnnual and monthly rates


　　20:30From the United States to4month8Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week


Technical analysis of gold:


　　黄金日线级别来看，在CPI利多影响下黄金冲高2028一线回落，黄金再次承压前高2032与布林带上轨，整体黄金当前仍然是处于多头上涨结构走势中，5Daily moving average and10日均线支撑金价震荡走高，只要价格不跌破10日线，黄金就一直保持强势的多头格局不会改变。近期黄金持续的震荡上涨过程中，副图指标MACD目前快慢线在高位钝化，灵动指标已死叉向下发散，指标显示黄金有回落修正的需求，但随机强弱指标RSI勾头向上显示黄金下方支撑较强，目前黄金是上有阻力，下有支撑，预计后市黄金大概率是以高位横盘震荡来完成指标的修复再选择方向破位。日线暂时关注2030-1970区间运行。


Gold4小时级别黄金趋势较为明显，黄金运行的是低点抬高，高点创新高的多头走势，价格在上轨和下轨之间来回震荡走高，周三黄金再次冲高上轨回落，按照之前走势循环来看，行情接下来会进一步跌向下轨寻求支撑，目前黄金冲高2028回落仍企稳中轨之上，若2000一线中轨支撑不破，价格有望再次展开反弹，若下破黄金将扩大跌幅至下轨1988-85Near.1小时级别来看，短线金价逐步企稳于移动平均线技术指标支撑位价格上方，短线回踩技术指标支撑有效性得到积极体现，当前金价仍企稳于技术指标支撑位价格上方维持较为规整向上发散排列，短线回落仍面临较为密集技术指标支撑价格影响。日内谨慎维持偏区间操作思路。综合来看，今日黄金短线操作思路上指南金师建议回调做多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方短期重点关注2020-2022Frontline resistance, short-term focus below2000-2002Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　4.13Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds2020-2022Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target2010-2005Nearby, break down and take a look2000frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback2000-2002Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target2010-2015Nearby, break down and take a look2020frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


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