Guide to Gold Economist: Analysis of Gold Trends, Unemployment Rate Facing a Decline, Expectations for Interest Rate hikes Further Increase

　　goldMessage interpretation:


Last Friday(4month7day)晚间，美国劳工部公布了3月非农数据。数据显示，非农就业人口新增23.6万人，基本符合市场预期的23.910000 people.3月份美国失业率录得3.5%，低于前值以及市场预期的3.6%。此前，美国2monthJOLTs职位空缺人数迎来大幅减少，市场认为这是由于经济衰退所导致的整体职位数量的减少，从而增加了避险买盘，使得黄金于数据公布后迎来大涨。但失业率的下降说明此前职位空缺数的减少主要是由于劳动者填补了空缺岗位，这是经济向好的表现。这也使得美元指数于今日早间迎来跳空高开。但非农数据亦显示，当前美国就业或基本达到饱和，后续将迎来新的挑战。这也再次限制了黄金的下行空间。


　　此外，根据CMEFederal Reserve observation shows that the Federal Reserve5The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged on a monthly basis is43.2%Interest rate hike25Bps to5%-5.25%The probability of the interval is56.8%. And in the3month30Day, Federal Reserve5The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged on a monthly basis is62.4%Interest rate hike25The probability of a basis point is37.8%。近日较好的经济数据再次增加了市场对于美联储的加息预期，此前由于银行业风险所带来的避险情绪有所下降。这也再次限制了黄金的上行空间。


Today's Gold Data:


　　22:00U.S.A2Monthly wholesale sales rate


The next day04:15美联储威廉姆斯参加讨论会


Technical analysis of gold:


　　上周五是耶稣受难日，黄金市场休市，周一金价补跌。不过，周一欧洲多数国家因为复活节假期休市，市场交投仍受到限制。上周五大家都憋了一口气，但市场的表现来说，基本没啥大的变化，早间低开反抽，二次回撤，小幅破早间低点，日线再一次破高后回落，回调的连续性不够，同时也没有出现加速，因此这就代表顶还没有出现，同时，从上升的时间周期来说，现在的时间周期还偏短，这就意味着上升的空间还有。虽然非农全天停盘休市，但是还是动摇不了空军回落的决心。今日早间跳空低开，一度跌破2000大关下行，日线高位黄昏星明确，布林带上轨开始缩口，有短期见顶信号，但是真正下跌可能还需要时间，毕竟多头强势格局。


　　4小时周期局部录得一根大阳后再录得一根大阴，多空不定，但行情整体处于中轨之下，后市需关注中轨的阻力情况。目前1小时走势呈震荡下行，从均线系统上来看，金价第一道压力在2006美元，第二道压力在2010美元。支撑在1988USD,1988美元也是此前三角形上边压力所形成的反支撑位置。而1988一但有效跌破，则“黄昏十字星”组合就可以得到确认。不破1988一线建议谨慎追空。1Hour cycle and15Minute cycleKDJ交叉向上指向看涨，短线可看反弹，但目前15Minute cycleKDJ已处于超卖状态，欧盘需关注其超买状态的解除方式（收阴缓解or震荡缓解）。1Hourly cycleRSI并未随行情新低而创新低，呈底背离，短线可看反弹！综合来看，今日黄金短线操作思路上指南金师建议回调做多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方短期重点关注2013-2015Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1988-1990Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　4.10Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds2013-2015Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target2005-1995Nearby, break down and take a look1990frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1988-1990Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target2000-2010Nearby, break down and take a look2015frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


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