Guide Metallographer:4.10Today's gold trend analysis, US employment data increases interest rate hike expectations

Market Review:


InternationalgoldThursday(4month6day)Volatile closing price2021.54dollar/Ounces, highest price2023.77dollar/Ounces, lowest price2000.68dollar/Ounces, closing price2011.02dollar/ounce.


Interpretation of the Golden News:


The United States announced on Friday3Record of non agricultural employment population after seasonal adjustment23.610000 people, lower than market expectations23.910000 people, the former value is31.1Ten thousand people; United States3Monthly unemployment rate recorded3.5%, lower than market expectations3.6%, previous value is3.6%。


　　评论称，总的来说，非农报告是一份相当不错的报告。总体数字超出了预期。报告仍然保持了市场所期待的良好的劳动力市场情况，这是整体数据连续第12个月超出预期。失业率下降了。薪资同比增长放缓，但这对美联储来说是个好消息。不过尽管如此，预计这些数据将使美联储在5Monthly interest rate hike25个基点。预计6月份也将会加息25个基点，这些数字符合这一要求。现在说信贷危机将对经济产生什么影响或已经造成了什么影响还为时过早。信贷紧缩只是暂时现象，实际不会产生巨大影响。


　　美国银行认为，3月份的就业报告使美联储有望在5Monthly interest rate hike25个基点。劳动力市场正在显示出降温的迹象，但仍然非常紧张。美国银行仍预计美联储将在5月会议后维持利率不变，这意味着最终利率将在5.0%-5.25%between.1月份之后经济数据的连续放缓，意味着第二季度经济将出现疲软，并造成本季度出现负增长的重大风险。到6月议息会议时，美联储将获得大量关于第二季度的数据，届时应该证明暂停加息是合理的。


　　穆迪分析公司经济学家Dante DeAntonio表示，尽管失业率仍然很低，但美联储有理由对劳动力市场感到乐观。整体就业增长的速度正在放缓，临时工服务增长和平均工作时长都在下降，这表明劳动力需求正在走软。3月份工资增长继续放缓，平均时薪同比增长降至2021年年中以来的最低水平。过去三个月的工资增速已降至3.5%以下，这或许是可持续的，也与(回到)2%的通胀目标相符。


　　英国伦敦政治经济学院欧洲研究所教授伊恩·贝格日前接受采访时表示，过去一年多来美联储和欧洲央行持续加息是导致此轮银行业动荡的重要原因。利率一旦上升，债券价格会随即下跌，欧美持续加息令那些持有债券资产比例较高的银行陷入困境。此次欧洲银行业风波中，像瑞士信贷银行和德意志银行这样的大型银行都受到了影响。贝格表示，目前这些银行的问题并不具有传染性，尚不会发展成金融危机，但如果利率继续上升，可能进一步暴露银行的脆弱性。


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve5The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged on a monthly basis is34.4%Interest rate hike25Bps to5.00%-5.25%The probability of the interval is65.6%； reach6The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged on a monthly basis is32.9%Accumulated interest rate increase25The probability of a basis point is64.3%Accumulated interest rate increase50The probability of a basis point is2.8%。


Today's Gold Data:


　　22:00U.S.A2Monthly wholesale sales rate


The next day04:15美联储威廉姆斯参加讨论会


Technical analysis of gold:


　　上周五市场休市，原因于黄金耶稣受难日金价休市，晚间非农数据照常公布。上周需要注意的是连续三日大涨基本消化非农预期，无论数据是好是坏，多头都要获利了结，非农本身就是一个重要的时间窗口，一定要防范变盘风险。


　　今日周一早间金价跳空低开于1989一线，短线低开高走反弹回踩企稳于2006下方。上周四早间金价最低下探2007一线后短线维持偏温和震荡走高，进入下午盘随着欧盘开盘金价最高上探2020一线后震荡回落，美盘时段金价最低下探2000一线后震荡走高，周五凌晨金价最高上探2014一线后震荡走低收盘于2007一线（金价高位震荡回落幅度逐步扩大形成对1953-2031上行区间中间价格回踩，带来阶段性震荡回归；短线金价低点1989一线快速走高企稳于压力位窄幅整理，自支撑位再度启动较为强劲上行延续，维持长期多头趋势，短期偏多震荡参考）。


　　那么本周的大趋势具体会怎么走？大趋势上，多头未跌破1990关口之前继续看涨，短线上，周尾震荡收尾，没有冲破高点，低点刺探也快速收回，那么本周周初指南金师认为大概率还是维持弱势震荡回调格局，即使冲高也走不远，下探也不会有强的力度。黄金4小时级别，在黄金突破了三角形整理形态之后，最高涨到了2031一线，随着行情的冲高后出现了回落，目前从4From an hourly perspective,MACDandKDJ形成死叉，即使日线的黄金并不是很配合黄金的见顶回落，但是回踩也是大概率事件。在走势上短周期均线由前期的向上发散逐步转为放平开始勾头向下，K线在高位震荡之后也有开始逐步击穿短周期均线的迹象在短线走势上可能还有一定程度的调整。


Currently1hourK线开始逐步击破短周期均线技术形态有开始逐步走弱的迹象短线关注下1990The support of the area.1On the trend of hourly levelK线跌破前期的高位震荡区间价格继续承压短周期均线运行，目前维持震荡下行走势。早盘一波低开之后的反弹力度和延续度都不算太大，短线金价触底反弹，小时线显示，当前金价企稳于小时线技术指标压力位价格下方，短期技术指标呈向下交叉排列形态，当前反弹面临技术指标压力位支撑转换1990参考，日内谨慎维持偏多区间操作思路。综合来看，今日黄金短线操作思路上指南金师建议回调做多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方短期重点关注2018-2020Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1988-1990Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　4.10Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds2013-2015Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target2005-1995Nearby, break down and take a look1990frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1988-1990Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target2000-2010Nearby, break down and take a look2015frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


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