Guide Metallographer:4.6Today's gold trend analysis, USADPEmployment data below expectations

Market Review:


InternationalgoldWednesday(4month5day)Rise and fall, opening price2020.07dollar/Ounces, highest price2031.88dollar/Ounces, lowest price2009.85dollar/Ounces, closing price2021.50dollar/ounce.


Interpretation of the Golden News:


Wednesday's announcement of the United States3monthADPEmployment records14.510000 people, lower than market expectations2010000 people, the former value is24.210000 people.


Commentary states that private enterprises in the United States3The number of employees hired in the month is much lower than expected, indicating that the labor market is cooling down. Data released on Wednesday showed that the number of private sector employment increased last month14.5Ten thousand people. Previously, the market was expected to increase20Ten thousand people. Due to the rise in borrowing costs suppressing economic demand, the labor market is slowing down. The government's report on Tuesday stated that,2At the end of the month990Ten thousand job vacancies. however,2The ratio of monthly job vacancies to the number of unemployed people is1.7than1This proves the tension in the labor market.


Wednesday's announcement of the United States3monthISMNon manufacturingPMIRecorded51.2, lower than market expectations54.5, previous value is55.1； U.S.A3monthMarkitService industryPMIFinal value recorded52.6, lower than market expectations53.8, previous value is53.8。


　　IHS MarkitSenior EconomistSiân JonesThe comment states that,3In January, the expansion of commercial activities in the entire service industry accelerated, and the resumption of growth in new orders provided a boost to the US economy. Private sector output in the United States has increased since last year6The fastest growth since the beginning of the month. The improvement in consumer spending in the service industry has offset another decline in manufacturing sales. However, concerns about the impact of inflation and high interest rates on consumer spending remain clear. Due to rising cost pressures, the optimistic sentiment of commodity producers and service providers has shifted from2There has been a decrease since the beginning of the month. Nevertheless, due to more relaxed demand conditions, the increase in sales prices has once again accelerated. The significant increase in fees is in stark contrast to the trend of input prices, with the growth rate of input prices being2020year10The second slowest since the beginning of the month.


Commentary states that the United States3The slowdown in monthly service industry growth exceeded expectations due to a cooling demand and a drop in indicators measuring payment prices for service companies to their lowest level in nearly three years, providing a boost to the Federal Reserve's measures to combat inflation. The data released today shows that,ISMNon manufacturing index from55.1lower51.2。 The shift of consumers from purchasing goods to consumption has supported the growth of the service industry. As demand cools, service industry inflation continues to decline, but remains at a high level. The service industry is currently at the core of fighting inflation, as service prices are often more sticky and have a weaker response to interest rate hikes.


The Federal Reserve's Meister said they will have to go a little higher than the current interest rates and then maintain this level for a period of time to ensure that inflation falls on a sustainable downward path2%。 But Meister said that this does not mean that policymakers will continue to raise interest rates until inflation reaches their target. She expected2023There will be "some significant progress" in curbing price pressure in the year, and it is estimated that a closely monitored inflation indicator will be reached by the end of this year3.75%。 But she believes that inflation is coming2025It will only return to the Federal Reserve's target level in. She stated that interest rates should rise5%Above and maintain for a period of time.


The report shows that the banks that are the most severely shorted in the world are not in Switzerland or Silicon Valley, but in the relatively calm financial center of Canada. according toS3 PartnersAnalysis shows that in recent weeks, short positions have increased their bets on Toronto Dominic Bank, with a total value of approximately37Billion US dollars, ranking first among global financial institutions, surpassing BNP Paribas, Bank of America, and others. This is to some extent related to the current market's overall anxiety towards the banking industry, with almost no indication that Canadian banks have any liquidity issues of concern to investors. However, analysts pointed out that investors were worried about TD Bank's risk exposure in the slowing real estate market, its connection with the US market, and the proposed acquisition of regional banks.


The world's largest goldETF--SPDR Gold TrustIncrease in position compared to the previous day0.87Tons, current position is930.91Tons.


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve5The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged on a monthly basis is56.5%Interest rate hike25Bps to5.00%-5.25%The probability of the interval is43.5%； reach6Monthly cumulative interest rate reduction25The probability of a basis point is8%The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged is54.7%Accumulated interest rate increase25The probability of a basis point is37.4%。


Today's Gold Data:


　　13:45Switzerland3Unemployment rate after quarterly adjustment


　　14:00Germany2Monthly industrial output rate after quarterly adjustment


　　14:00britain3monthHalifaxMonthly rate of housing price index after quarterly adjustment


　　19:30U.S.A3Monthly Challenger Enterprise layoffs


　　20:30Canada3Monthly Employment Number


　　20:30From the United States to4month1Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week


　　22:00U.S.A3New York Fed Global Supply Chain Pressure Index


Technical analysis of gold:


Gold rose and fell yesterday, reaching its highest2032First line, lowest retreat to2010First line, closing at2020A relatively neutral position in the region, after such a trend, we can only judge that the strong bulls have slightly eased, without turning the trend, and the short term has shifted from strong to high volatility. The daily high level cross star appears in the high price range after continuous rise, which is a signal of turning from peak to trend. Currently, this peak signal still needs to be verified by actual trends, such as at least falling below2000Only through the level can we judge the top and strengthen it2030The effectiveness of this high point, reaching its peak, needs attention, but at least it can be judged that the trend is no longer strong today, and the daily level is weak and volatile. At present, the weekly level is still a bullish trend, but there are already shadow lines above, indicating the high weekly level in the early stageKBoth closed with hatches, twice2070The Week of the PassK,as well as3month2010High point weekKAll of them should be collected at least30The long shadow line of the knife, this weekKIt is also expected to receive a long shadow line, so gold can be bearish at that time1990/2000Region, while there will be non agricultural data tomorrow, but the market will be closed all day tomorrow. It is not ruled out that there will be panic selling in the market today, and gold will also weaken. Therefore, the weekly level is bearish on gold.


On a technical level, the daily chart shows that although the US dollar index rebounded strongly after Wednesday's announcement, the overall trend of gold prices remains relatively strong, as the market expects the Federal Reserve to suspend interest rate hikes and trigger safe haven buying. Gold is currently stable at2000The overall trend of the US dollar still tends to be bullish, despite being above the integer level,5Daily moving average and10The daily moving average crosses upwards and the upward momentum remains intact,KDas well asRSIThe indicators also continue to fluctuate upwards. However, the daily line closed with a cross star yesterday, and Bollinger showed signs of closing, indicating that the upward trend is not too strong, indicating that the upward space for gold may be limited and attention should be paid to the intraday decline2005-2000Support position.


　　4Hour chart Wednesday night high2032Fall back to2010Receive a big cross star, the short-term rise of gold is temporarily postponed, and it is now being tested10The moving average support, which is also from1976rebound2032Golden Section Withdrawal0.382Bit. At present, there are preliminary signs of a strong rebound in the US dollar index, as the market's risk aversion gradually cools down in the future.KDas well asRSIThe indicators are fluctuating downward, and the upward trend is gradually slowing down, indicating that gold is rising2032There is some pressure on the Bollinger Belt to go on the track, and there is a demand for correction in the short term of gold. The strength should be2000The checkpoint is stable, and if weak, it is not ruled out to step back1995-1990The Belt seeks support to stabilize and rise again, with a focus on the transformation of small cycle charts. The correction is also aimed at building momentum for bulls. Daily and4The hourly chart still tends to rise.1The previous high rise and low fall in the hour chart were at a lower position, driving the attached pictureMACDThe top of the indicator deviates. There are signs of a pullback in the small cycle chart. But the space needs to be determined by its form. Space can be large or small. Overall, today's gold short-term operation strategy is guided by the guidance of gold analysts, who suggest that the main focus is to rebound and short, supplemented by a pullback and long, with a focus on the short-term above2030-2032Frontline resistance, short-term focus below2008-2010Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　4.6Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds2025-2028Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target2015-2010Nearby, break down and take a look2005frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback2003-2005Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target2015-2020Nearby, break down and take a look2025frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)