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goldMessage interpretation:
3month27Day Monday
本月最后一周,数据面上相对比较清淡,除了周末的美国PCE数据以外,没什么重大待公布新闻发生。当然黑天鹅除外,这种意外事件本身是不可预测的。消息面的稀少其实也意味着行情可能不会有太大的起伏。少了催化剂的加持,多数品种往往会无序震荡为主。
本周主要经济数据:
Monday(3month27day): UK3monthCBI零售销售差值,美国3Dallas Federal Reserve Business Activity Index for the month;
Tuesday(3month28day): USA1月房价指数,美国20座大城市房价指数,美国3月谘商会消费者信心指数,3Monthly Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index;
Wednesday(3month29day):美国至3month24Day and WeekAPIcrude oil库存,瑞士3monthZEW投资者信心指数,英国2Monthly central bank mortgage loan permit(10000 pieces), USA2月成屋签约销售指数,美国至3month24Day and WeekEIACrude oil inventory(10000 barrels),美国至3month24Day and WeekEIA战略石油储备库存(10000 barrels);
Thursday(3month30day)Eurozone3月消费者信心指数终值,欧元区3月经济景气指数,德国3monthCPI月率初值,美国至3month25Number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time in the current week(ten thousand people),美国第四季度实际GDP终值,PCE终值,美国至3month24Day and WeekEIANatural gas inventory;
Friday(3month31day): Japan2月失业率,中国3Monthly official manufacturingPMI,英国第四季度GDP终值,经常帐(Billion pounds)Eurozone3monthCPIEurozone2月失业率,美国2Monthly CorePCE物价指数,美国3Month ChicagoPMI, USA3月密歇根大学消费者信心指数终值,美国3月一年期通胀率预期;
Technical analysis of gold:
上周黄金居高位反复拉扯,先大幅下调,后又连续拉升,最终又表现有所承压,导致这种极端情况的主因还是受基本面的影响,市场情绪主导着行情的运行节奏。本周没有重大基本面预期,但对于欧美银行业危机给市场情绪带来的冲击依旧是关注的重点,这也是近期黄金能否继续保持居高甚至再回升的关键,如果此方面消息有所淡化,那么随着时间的推移,可能会导致黄金回吐此前避险情绪带来的买盘空间。
目前日线结构上,黄金依然还是居高的状态,技术上并无再回升的动能支持和技术预期支撑,导致这种偏激上涨的主因还是避险情绪的影响,所以本周主思路依旧根据避险情绪继续保留看涨预期,但是技术上存在的压力也不可不防,技术上也继续保留黄金可能进行承压回修的预期,下方可参考10Daily line1955附近支撑,如果10日线失守,则技术上黄金是会有向下扩展空间的可能性的,但能否进一步向下,则还是要看基本面是否配合,毕竟目前避险情绪是行情节奏的主导。
结合日线以及小时图结构,本周初市场避险情绪可能会有所淡化一些,而黄金也大概率会借机进行一定的回修,但避险情绪随时可能会因为一则消息而再度爆发,所以对此只是预期,切莫抱有太大的期待。周初根据小时图结构,上方可关注1980附近短压争夺,目前小时图有形成高位三角形的趋向,上方可将2000整数关口视作为三角上沿压力,下方则关注趋势线支撑以及前期交投密集点位1965附近测试,如果此位失守,那么黄金或将向着1950附近,甚至上周低点1937-35附近测试,但这种情况的出现需要基本面的配合,如果基本面没有利空配合,那么黄金大概率是会保留偏强预期的。综合来看,今日黄金短线操作思路上指南金师建议反弹做空为主,回调做多为辅,上方短期重点关注1978-1980Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1935-1937Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.
3.27Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:
Empty order strategy:
Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1970-1972Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1960-1950Nearby, break down and take a look1940frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)
Multiple order strategy:
Strategy 2: Gold Callback1935-1938Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1945-1955Nearby, break down and take a look1965frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)
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