Guide Metallographer:3.24今日黄金走势分析，美联储加息概率骤降

　　goldMessage interpretation:


Friday(3month24day)亚市盘中，现货黄金保持坚挺，金价现报1993dollar/盎司附近。分析师指出，黄金价格正寻求再度突破2000dollar/盎司。一旦有效攻克这一重要阻力，金价将瞄准2020year8Monthly high point2075.32dollar/ounce.


Spot gold closed Wednesday1992.56dollar/Ounces, significant increase22.92USD or1.16%The highest daily hit2003.35dollar/Ounces, lowest touch1964.56dollar/ounce.


　　FXStreetanalystSagar Dua表示，周四亚洲早盘黄金价格在1990-2000dollar/盎司之间窄幅震荡。黄金价格正努力突破心理阻力位2000dollar/盎司。随着美联储接近停止其政策紧缩周期，黄金上行前景似乎受到青睐。


　　美联储周三宣布加息25个基点，表达了对近期银行业危机的谨慎态度，并暗示加息即将结束。此次加息后，美国联邦基金基准利率的目标区间已升至4.75%-5%。


　　美联储会后声明称：“委员会将密切关注传入的信息并评估对货币政策的影响。委员会预计，为了实现足够限制性的政策立场、以使通胀率随着时间的推移恢复到2%，一些额外的政策收紧可能是适当的。”这一措辞背离了此前的声明，即“持续加息”将是降低通胀的合适方式。


　　美联储利率点阵图显示，联邦基金利率到2023年年末预将达到5.1%，与美联储官员12月的预测中值一致，暗示今年再加息一次后本轮加息将结束。


　　Dua指出，美国商业银行为避免不良资产增加而进一步收紧信贷条件，将导致通胀下降、需求降温和经济前景黯淡。


　　高盛将其12个月黄金价格目标从1950dollar/盎司上调至2050dollar/盎司，并将其描述为对冲金融风险的最佳方式。


　　香港时间周五20:30Investors will welcome the United States2月耐用品订单数据。


　　权威媒体调查显示，美国美国2月耐用品订单初值月率料上升0.6%Previously1月耐用品订单终值月率下降4.5%。


　　Dua表示，周五，投资者将密切关注美国耐用品订单数据。如果需求继续增长，美联储可能会继续加息。


　　香港时间周五21:45, USA3monthMarkitPurchasing Manager Index(PMI)将出炉。


According to authoritative media surveys, the United States3monthMarkitService industryPMI初值料为50.5Previously2The end of month value is50.6； U.S.A3monthMarkitmanufacturingPMI初值料为47.0，2The end of month value is47.3。


　　FXStreetanalystAnil Panchal表示，周五，美国PMI初值、耐用品订单数据对黄金交易者来说将是重要的，以获得新的交易指引。


Today's Gold Data:


　　08:01britain3monthGfkConsumer confidence index


　　15:00britain2Monthly retail sales rate after quarterly adjustment


　　16:15France3Monthly manufacturing industryPMIinitial value


　　16:30Germany3Monthly manufacturing industryPMIinitial value


　　17:00eurozone3Monthly manufacturing industryPMIinitial value


　　17:30britain3Monthly manufacturing industryPMI


　　17:30britain3Monthly service industryPMI


　　20:30Canada1Monthly retail sales rate


　　20:30U.S.A2Monthly rate of durable goods orders


　　21:30Fed Brad delivers a speech


　　21:45U.S.A3monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value


　　21:45U.S.A3monthMarkitService industryPMIinitial value


Technical analysis of gold:


　　黄金周四延续涨势，启稳1966一线回升收复失地，重新摸高2003.0高位，虽然尾盘收回之下，但日线双连阳收复了周初的回撤失地，如昨日日评一致，日线止跌震荡回升，重新进入涨势结构。昨日晚间初请数据利空，行情回调，但是没有延续性，并且快速拉升反抽回来，说明当下依旧是多头行情！昨日在下探启稳后，波动基数较大，更考验进场点位。亚欧盘整理，美盘放量。留意这种止跌启稳的节奏找机会切入。今日周线收官之作，周线大概率还是收高，就看能否突破2010高点进一步延伸空间，整体处于上升结构当中。


　　从当前盘面来看，价格在凌晨冲高回落，虽然是消息面所影响，但是明显看到有大量的抛盘，这也说明2000上仍将会反复的洗盘，后市只有重新站稳2005后会去上行三式的的边线去，目前价格过快均线跟不上，暂时还得修正，日内重点关注五日均线附近，而四小时昨天相当于是回落到二次开口，所以这波上涨很确定会强势，凌晨冲高回落，目前上方压制于加束线，下方支撑于上线这里，能量柱开始收缩，所以今天最不确定的就是四小时，因为2003yes2009.6下跌的第一个次高点，一旦四小时指引线再次下破上线，今天不排除会继续杀多，但是现在信号还没有出现，出现后要及时调整思路，在这个信号没出现之前，预期价格会先到小时图的短期均线这里，这里正好是昨天上涨的重合位，因此今天把握78之上看多，有效收在下方看空；


　　而目前很多人说行情可能见顶，但我不这么认为，之前金价上冲2009之后回撤1934，这个回撤的力度不小，而且金价也没有下破日线的MA10，所以上涨走势没有改变，当这一波再次起航时，就是另一个新高要出现了，所以继续保持强势看涨思路即可，只有靠近2077附近时我们就需要谨慎做多，毕竟是前期双顶的位置，能否上破，需要稳健观察，目前来看做多还是安全的。综合来看，今日黄金短线操作思路上指南金师建议回调做多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方短期重点关注2005-2010Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1985-1983Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm


　　3.24Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds2005-2010Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1995-1990Nearby, break down and take a look1985frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1983-1985Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1995-2005Nearby, break down and take a look2010frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


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