Guide Metallographer:3.24今日黄金走势分析，美联储暂停加息预期升温

Market Review:


InternationalgoldThursday(3month23day)再度收涨，开盘价1947.08dollar/Ounces, highest price1986.84dollar/Ounces, lowest price1944.84dollar/Ounces, closing price1983.87dollar/ounce.


Interpretation of the Golden News:


Thursday's announcement from the United States to3month18Record of initial claims for unemployment benefits for the current week19.110000 people, lower than market expectations19.710000 people, the former value is19.210000 people.


　　评论称，美国上周初请失业金人数小幅下降，目前还没有迹象显示，最近由两家地区性银行倒闭引起的金融市场动荡正在对经济产生影响。今年初请失业金人数在窄幅区间内反弹，按历史标准衡量仍处于非常低的水平，尽管大型科技公司纷纷裁员。1月份，每个失业人员对应1.9个职位空缺，雇主通常不愿解雇员工。经济学家预计，劳动力市场状况将有所松动，特别是在硅谷银行和签名银行倒闭之后。金融环境已经收紧，这可能导致银行在发放贷款方面变得更加严格，这可能会对家庭和小企业造成影响，而这些企业一直是就业增长的主要驱动力。


The United States announced on Thursday2Annualized total monthly sales of new homes64万户，低于市场预期65Ten thousand households, with a previous value of67Ten thousand households.


　　牛津经济研究院首席美国经济学家豪登在一份报告中说，美国新房销售近期的增长势头不太可能在未来几个月继续。她说，由于建筑商推出了降价和其他激励措施来鼓励销售，房屋销售一直相对坚挺。然而，经济放缓和劳动力市场疲软可能会拖累需求。她表示，由于部分房屋建设短期内不会完成，供应也可能继续低迷。“银行业的压力可能会对新屋建设构成压力，因为规模较小的银行在建筑贷款中所占的比例过高。”


　　荷兰合作银行认为，联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)昨天一致决定将联邦基金利率目标区间从4.50—4.75%up-regulation25Bps to4.75—5.00%。荷兰合作银行经济学家剔除其6Monthly interest rate hike25个基点的预期。不过，他们仍认为美联储将在今年剩余时间内维持利率不变：“接下来FOMC不希望加息太多，预计今年只会再加25Basis points.FOMC预计，银行收紧信贷将为央行完成其余的抗通胀工作。你能在美联储主席鲍威尔问答环节中意识到信贷紧缩是美联储的新货币政策工具。我们将联邦基金利率目标区间的预测从5.25—5.50%Down to5.00—5.25%，预计只会再加息25个基点一次。我们坚持FOMC今年不会转向的预测。”


The world's largest goldETF--SPDR Gold TrustIncrease in position compared to the previous day2.31Tons, current position is925.42Tons.


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve5月维持利率不变的概率大幅上升至64.7%Interest rate hike25Bps to5.00%-5.25%The probability of the interval is35.3%； reach6Monthly interest rate reduction25The probability of a basis point is27.8%The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged is52.1%Accumulated interest rate increase25The probability of a basis point is20.2%。


Today's Gold Data:


　　08:01britain3monthGfkConsumer confidence index


　　15:00britain2Monthly retail sales rate after quarterly adjustment


　　16:15France3Monthly manufacturing industryPMIinitial value


　　16:30Germany3Monthly manufacturing industryPMIinitial value


　　17:00eurozone3Monthly manufacturing industryPMIinitial value


　　17:30britain3Monthly manufacturing industryPMI


　　17:30britain3Monthly service industryPMI


　　20:30Canada1Monthly retail sales rate


　　20:30U.S.A2Monthly rate of durable goods orders


　　21:30Fed Brad delivers a speech


　　21:45U.S.A3monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value


　　21:45U.S.A3monthMarkitService industryPMIinitial value


Technical analysis of gold:


　　黄金周四延续涨势，启稳1966一线回升收复失地，重新摸高2003.0高位，虽然尾盘收回之下，但日线双连阳收复了周初的回撤失地，如昨日日评一致，日线止跌震荡回升，重新进入涨势结构。昨日晚间初请数据利空，行情回调，但是没有延续性，并且快速拉升反抽回来，说明当下依旧是多头行情！昨日在下探启稳后，波动基数较大，更考验进场点位。亚欧盘整理，美盘放量。留意这种止跌启稳的节奏找机会切入。今日周线收官之作，周线大概率还是收高，就看能否突破2010高点进一步延伸空间，整体处于上升结构当中。


　　从当前盘面来看，价格在凌晨冲高回落，虽然是消息面所影响，但是明显看到有大量的抛盘，这也说明2000上仍将会反复的洗盘，后市只有重新站稳2005后会去上行三式的的边线去，目前价格过快均线跟不上，暂时还得修正，日内重点关注五日均线附近，而四小时昨天相当于是回落到二次开口，所以这波上涨很确定会强势，凌晨冲高回落，目前上方压制于加束线，下方支撑于上线这里，能量柱开始收缩，所以今天最不确定的就是四小时，因为2003yes2009.6下跌的第一个次高点，一旦四小时指引线再次下破上线，今天不排除会继续杀多，但是现在信号还没有出现，出现后要及时调整思路，在这个信号没出现之前，预期价格会先到小时图的短期均线这里，这里正好是昨天上涨的重合位，因此今天把握78之上看多，有效收在下方看空；


　　而目前很多人说行情可能见顶，但我不这么认为，之前金价上冲2009之后回撤1934，这个回撤的力度不小，而且金价也没有下破日线的MA10，所以上涨走势没有改变，当这一波再次起航时，就是另一个新高要出现了，所以继续保持强势看涨思路即可，只有靠近2077附近时我们就需要谨慎做多，毕竟是前期双顶的位置，能否上破，需要稳健观察，目前来看做多还是安全的。综合来看，今日黄金短线操作思路上指南金师建议回调做多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方短期重点关注2005-2010Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1985-1983Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm


　　3.24Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds2005-2010Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1995-1990Nearby, break down and take a look1985frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1983-1985Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1995-2005Nearby, break down and take a look2010frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


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