Guide Metallographer:3.23今日黄金走势分析，加息落地黄金大扫荡

Market Review:


InternationalgoldWednesday(3month22day)触底反弹大幅收涨，开盘价1947.95dollar/Ounces, highest price1951.75dollar/Ounces, lowest price1934.08dollar/Ounces, closing price1947.07dollar/ounce.


Interpretation of the Golden News:


The US to3month22日美联储利率决定上限为5%, in line with market expectations, with a previous value of4.75%。


Federal ReserveFOMC声明显示，将基准、储备金和贴现利率上调25个基点、一些额外的政策收紧是合适的、决定获票委一致通过、考虑过暂停加息。美国银行体系是健全和有韧性的，最近的事态发展可能导致信贷条件收紧，影响程度尚不确定、支持加强相关监管。信贷紧缩可能意味着在利率政策方面的工作可以减少、保持在2023年底利率中值为5.1%的预期不变、今年降息不是基线预期、如有必要会加息至更高。较高的利率和较慢的增长正在拖累企业、预计2023年美国经济增长0.4%、有通往软着陆的道路。通胀仍处于高位、上调今年PCEAnd the corePCE通胀预期、删除“近期通胀有所缓和”措辞。就业有所增长且增速强劲，失业率保持在较低水平、对今年失业率的估计是高度不确定的。


　　美联储主席鲍威尔表示，在硅谷银行(SVB)倒闭后，美联储大幅逆转缩减资产负债表规模的努力，并不意味着正在利用所持资产为经济提供新的刺激。鲍威尔在FOMC新闻发布会上说，“资产负债表的扩张实际上是对银行的临时借贷，并没有直接改变货币政策立场的意图。”银行借贷上周激增，最明显的是通过贴现窗口发放创纪录的1530亿美元贷款，导致美联储的整体现金和债券储备从3month8Of8.4万亿美元跃升至一周前的8.7万亿美元。这让美联储数月来为减少在债券市场的影响所做的努力付诸东流。“我们还没有真正讨论过改变资产负债表的实施情况，”鲍威尔说，不过他补充道，“如果我们认为改变是合适的，就总是会愿意做出改变。”


　　美财长耶伦表示，与金融稳定监督委员会合作，恢复将非银行金融机构列为系统性金融机构的能力，使其接受监管。不考虑为所有未受保的存款提供保险。


Federal Reserve SpeakerNick Timiraos写到，美联储再次加息25个基点，但暗示银行系统的动荡可能比两周前预期的更早地结束其加息行动。美联储官员们在会后的政策声明中暗示，他们可能很快就会停止加息。委员会预计，一些额外的政策收紧可能是合适的。他们放弃了在前八份声明中使用的措辞，即委员会预计“持续加息”将是合适的。


　　据《巴伦周刊》报道，美联储加息25个基点的决定可能有助于将美国抵押贷款利率维持在近期高点以下。抵押贷款银行家协会首席经济学家Mike Fratantoni表示，此次加息是“鸽派加息”。美联储的声明和经济预测表明，美联储可能已经处于或接近本加息周期的利率峰值。今年的购房者已经表明他们对抵押贷款利率的任何变化都非常敏感。由于货币政策收紧，房地产市场是第一个放缓的领域。而随着加息放缓并最终停止，房地产市场应该是第一个受益的领域。预计2023年第四季度30年期固定利率的抵押贷款平均利率将为5.3%，低于第一季度预期的6.4%。


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve5The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged on a monthly basis is38.8%Interest rate hike25Bps to5.00%-5.25%The probability of the interval is61.2%； reach6Monthly interest rate reduction25The probability of a basis point is22.1%The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged is51.5%Accumulated interest rate increase25The probability of a basis point is26.4%。


Today's Gold Data:


　　16:30Swiss Central Bank Announces Interest Rate Resolution


　　17:00Swiss Central Bank Governor Jordan Holds a Press Conference


　　20:00Bank of England Announces Interest Rate Resolutions and Meeting Minutes


　　20:30From the United States to3month18Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week


　　20:30Fourth quarter US current account


　　22:00U.S.A2Annualized total monthly sales of new homes


　　今日技术面分析：


　　昨天日内窄幅震荡，黄金市场早盘开盘在1939The position of the market has slightly increased and given1946After the market fluctuated and fell, the daily line reached its lowest point1933的位置后行情拉升，凌晨时段行情受到美联储鸽派决议和讲话影响强势拉升，日线最高触及到了1978的位置后行情宽幅整理日线最终收线在了1969的位置后行情以一根上影线长于下影线的大阳线收线，而这样的形态收尾后，日线回踩确认完成，利空出尽背景下今日的行情延续多。


　　日线周期于阶段性高点2009附近录得黄昏之星形态后，现局部再次录得大阳，但行情仍处于黄昏之星形态之中，后市仍可继续看下行，4小时周期录得大阳构筑塔形底部形态，后续录得小阴且行情处于中轨，同时行情仍处于强阻力位1984下方，后市需重点关注1984这一点位的得失情况，高位谨慎追多。1小时周期的行情局部站稳于由1935and1937组成的支撑趋势线之上，后续录得大阳破位1960一线，目前局部再次录得长下影线的十字线和小阴，短线有滞涨迹象，上方可关注1980-84区间阻力得失。


Currently1Hourly cyclema均线交叉向上指向看涨，但如晟富之前所说：ma均线并不具备摸顶功能，故建议高位谨慎追多。1Hourly cycleKDJ交叉向上指向看涨，15Minute cycleKDJ交叉向下指向看跌，信号矛盾，可暂时观望。1Hourly cycleRSI并未随行情新高而创新高，呈顶背离，后市可看回落。综合来看，今日黄金短线操作思路上指南金师建议回调做多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方短期重点关注1980-1984Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1955-1960Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　3.23Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1980-1982Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1970-1965Nearby, break down and take a look1960frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1960-1962Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1970-1980Nearby, break down and take a look1985frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


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