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ATFXExpectations of recession heating up, crude oil has broken through and plummeted in the past week

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经济周期分为四个状态:高通胀+高经济增速的过热期、低通胀+低经济增速的萧条期、高通胀+低经济增速的衰退期、低通胀+高经济增速的复苏期。在这四个阶段中,crude oil价格走势与通胀率保持一致,通胀高企时,原油价格持续上涨;反之,则不断下跌。过去一周,WTIPrice from77dollar/桶猛跌至64dollar/Barrel,75美元的支撑已不复存在,未来的潜在下跌空间巨大。美国的名义CPI增速已经连续八个月下降,GDP增速(2022年四季度年化)仅为0.9%,远低于健康水平。从经济周期模型看,美国经济正处于通胀下降+低增速的衰退至萧条的阶段。由于美国名义CPI增速虽然处于下降趋势,但绝对值仍高达6%,所以市场资金对于“衰退至萧条”的认定尚存在分歧。
ATFXExpectations of recession heating up, crude oil has broken through and plummeted in the past week429 / author:atfx2019 / PostsID:1717388

传统的美联储的货币政策了路径为:经济衰退,降息提供流动性;经济复苏,加息收回流动性。但是,2022年以来,随着美国高通胀问题越来越严重,美联储不得不采取激进的加息举措。显然,加息不可能一直持续下去,因为过高的终端利率会抑制投资和消费。何时停止加息变得尤为关键,过早会导致高通胀死灰复燃,过晚则会导致经济衰退。从近期原油市场的表现来看,美联储停止加息的时间点显然过于晚了。本周四美联储将公布利率决议结果,市场的普遍预期依旧为加息25基点。果真如此的话,当日的利率决议将再次对WTI价格形成冲击,导致其开启新一轮下跌。
ATFXExpectations of recession heating up, crude oil has broken through and plummeted in the past week540 / author:atfx2019 / PostsID:1717388

EIA原油库粗给出清晰的信号:库存正在快速上升,供应显著大于需求。石油属于大宗商品,所有大宗商品的价格都和库存水平紧密相关。无论是美联储的加息还是宏观经济衰退,所有因素的落脚点都在库存数据当中。        EIA库存最新值3791.2万桶,最近一年的低点为2133万桶,升幅77.74%,如此剧烈的升高,原油价格下跌是理所当然。需要提醒的是,OPEC和俄罗斯不希望看到原油价格疲软,两者可能在未来发出减产信号。如果减产规模超预期,WTI有可能由跌转升。
ATFXExpectations of recession heating up, crude oil has broken through and plummeted in the past week395 / author:atfx2019 / PostsID:1717388

From a technical perspective,WTI经过四个多月的震荡后,终于选择了向下突破。短期支撑位64.36预计不会存在多久,很快将会被跌破,时间点有可能就是周四美联储利率决议。由于本次突破震荡区间的力度较强,短线的反弹将难以回到区间之内,预计形成回踩动作后随即开始遇阻回落。

Risk reminder, disclaimer, special statement:
There are risks in the market, and investment needs to be cautious. The above content only represents the analyst's personal views and does not constitute any operational suggestions. Please do not consider this report as the sole reference. At different times, analysts' perspectives may change, and updates will not be notified separately.
2023-03-21

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