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Guide Metallographer:3.21今日黄金走势分析,多空目光聚焦美联储决议

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  goldMessage interpretation:


  3month20日,景顺基金(Invesco)首席全球市场策略师Kristina Hooper在接受采访时表示,尽管金价可能在今年剩余时间里继续表现良好,但能否创出历史新高取决于当前全球银行业危机如何继续发展。


  Hooper表示,尽管银行危机得到解决,金价仍保持弹性。虽然她看好今年的金价,但目前的价格走势将取决于政策制定者是否能够控制住形势,并向金融市场和全球银行体系注入信心。


  她指出:“政府为消费者银行存款提供担保的计划在很大程度上平息了最初的担忧。需要一些时间来确定目前的措施是否足以增强信心。政策制定者有很多工具可以使用,因此这场危机是可以避免的。像这样的情况会让我们看到一个更有风险的环境。在这种环境下,黄金的表现可能不会那么好。但是,如果政策制定者不迅速采取行动,情况可能会变得更糟。”


  Hooper表示,尽管金价2000美元以上后不能持续取得突破,但除了银行业危机,还有其他因素将在今年剩余时间内为金价提供良好支撑。


  她指出,美联储可能会在周三货币政策会议后结束其激进的紧缩周期。这种货币政策的转变应该会削弱美元,为黄金提供助力。


  根据芝加哥商品交易所美联储观察工具(CME FedWatch Tool),目前市场认为美联储本周晚些时候维持利率不变的可能性约为28%。


Meanwhile,Hooper指出,即使银行业危机得到解决,市场也可能开始关注美国政府可能出现的违约,因为国会尚未提高债务上限。


  Hooper指出:“这不仅仅是当前的问题,而且我们即将就债务上限展开辩论,这也可能促使投资者转向黄金等避险资产类别。在这种压力重重的环境下,黄金表现良好的条件已经成熟。”


Today's Gold Data:


  15:00Switzerland2Monthly trade account


  18:00Germany3monthZEWEconomic Sentiment Index


  18:00eurozone3monthZEWEconomic Sentiment Index


  20:30Canada2monthCPIMonthly rate


  20:30European Central Bank President Lagarde delivers a speech


  22:00U.S.A2Annualized total monthly housing sales


Technical analysis of gold:


  黄金周一探高回落,日线在放量冲高后转换回踩。高低点都集中在欧美盘时段,伴随冲高回落的震荡修正,连续放量之后,局部上行力度有所放缓,短线目前暂时也只是看修正。是否见顶还言时过早,形态上还不支持。周线和日线依旧强阳上升结构当中,局部回踩也大概率是为了蓄势。不过随着消息面的平稳之后,短线或许也会归于平稳,开始收缩区间。日图十字K线显示上行放缓,短线或许会进入高位反复迂回,而因为波动基数大,短线的机会也就加大,不必执着于单边方向,多空都有机会。


  4小时图二浪上涨进行放缓,从空间上来看,有点一步释放到位的迹象。后面再往上可能伴随一步一回头的走法。空间上从1885二浪低点强势放量至2009.69高位。与一浪的空间不相上下。形态上昨日首次出现探高回落,短线有回调修正之可能。当然不是直接拐头向下的走法,而是伴随反复的冲高回撤是主格调,毕竟趋势属于上升当中。1小时图快速的冲高回落带动MACD指标顶部背离有待消化,技术结构上显示短线上行有所力竭,待局部修正后再蓄动能上扬。操作上日内短线以区间震荡对待,高空低多卡点操作。结合形态临盘安排,波动基数大更考验进场点位。综合来看,今日黄金短线操作思路上指南金师建议回调做多为主,反弹做空为辅,上方短期重点关注1998-2000Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1965-1968Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


  3.21Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1998-2000Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1985-1975Nearby, break down and take a look1965frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1965-1968Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1980-1990Nearby, break down and take a look2000frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


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