Guide Metallographer:3.21今日黄金走势分析，金价冲高回落加剧震荡

Market Review:


InternationalgoldMonday(3month20day)Volatile closing price1984.45dollar/Ounces, highest price2009.58dollar/Ounces, lowest price1965.66dollar/Ounces, closing price1973.64dollar/ounce.


Interpretation of the Golden News:


Federal Reserve SpeakerNick Timiraos撰文称，在当前的情形下，美联储面临是否加息的艰难决定，美联储官员们必须在通胀担忧与对银行业动荡溢出效应的新担忧之间取得平衡。Timiraos认为，美联储是否继续加息25个基点的决定可能部分取决于市场如何消化瑞银收购瑞信的消息，以及美国和其他经济体采取的平息市场对银行业担忧的举措是否奏效。而在2018Year to2022年期间曾担任美联储副主席的克拉里达表示，建议美联储继续进行25个基点的加息。如果美联储暂停加息，市场可能会讨论，是不是他们“隐瞒了”一些市场不知道的真相。


　　华尔街日报报道显示，在美联储的政策会议之前，交易员们仍认为，美联储更有可能上调利率，而不是维持利率不变。银行业的动荡导致交易员们对强劲的经济数据将鼓励美联储将其基准利率提高50个基点的押注进行了调整。据CME美联储观察，交易员目前认为美联储加息25个基点的概率略低于五分之三，而在周三会议结束时，美联储维持利率在4.5-4.75%区间不变的可能性略高于五分之二。


　　惠誉分析，将瑞银集团展望从“稳定”下调至“负面”，评级为“A-”。美联储的紧缩政策今年很可能会对流向新兴市场的净资本流动产生沉重的压力，但我们预计资本流动将在2024年恢复。新兴市场净资本流动将在2024年显著改善，占新兴市场9countryGDPof2%，随着美联储开始降息，新兴市场与新兴市场之间的增长差异将有所改善。近期银行压力尚未与风险厌恶的急剧上升有关，但银行流动性是新兴市场资本流动中更为波动的部分之一。


　　德意志银行首席国际策略师AlanRuskin表示，急于向货币体系注入流动性是金融压力“最明显的迹象”，且显然不利于美元。“美联储扩张资产负债表但解决潜在金融问题却速度缓慢，这是美元面临的最糟糕结果之一，”Ruskin表示。此前美联储和其他五家央行周日宣布采取协调行动，以增强美元流动性供应，缓解全球金融体系中日益加剧的压力。“鉴于硅谷银行问题引发了信任危机，将对美国的银行体系造成长期的结构性影响，我们倾向于采取看空美元的立场，”


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve3The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged on a monthly basis is23.2%Interest rate hike25Bps to4.75%-5.00%The probability of the interval is76.8%； reach5Monthly interest rate reduction25The probability of a basis point is5.4%The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged is35.6%Accumulated interest rate increase25The probability of a basis point is59.0%。


Today's Gold Data:


　　15:00Switzerland2Monthly trade account


　　18:00Germany3monthZEWEconomic Sentiment Index


　　18:00eurozone3monthZEWEconomic Sentiment Index


　　20:30Canada2monthCPIMonthly rate


　　20:30European Central Bank President Lagarde delivers a speech


　　22:00U.S.A2Annualized total monthly housing sales


Technical analysis of gold:


　　黄金周一探高回落，日线在放量冲高后转换回踩。高低点都集中在欧美盘时段，伴随冲高回落的震荡修正，连续放量之后，局部上行力度有所放缓，短线目前暂时也只是看修正。是否见顶还言时过早，形态上还不支持。周线和日线依旧强阳上升结构当中，局部回踩也大概率是为了蓄势。不过随着消息面的平稳之后，短线或许也会归于平稳，开始收缩区间。日图十字K线显示上行放缓，短线或许会进入高位反复迂回，而因为波动基数大，短线的机会也就加大，不必执着于单边方向，多空都有机会。


　　4小时图二浪上涨进行放缓，从空间上来看，有点一步释放到位的迹象。后面再往上可能伴随一步一回头的走法。空间上从1885二浪低点强势放量至2009.69高位。与一浪的空间不相上下。形态上昨日首次出现探高回落，短线有回调修正之可能。当然不是直接拐头向下的走法，而是伴随反复的冲高回撤是主格调，毕竟趋势属于上升当中。1小时图快速的冲高回落带动MACD指标顶部背离有待消化，技术结构上显示短线上行有所力竭，待局部修正后再蓄动能上扬。操作上日内短线以区间震荡对待，高空低多卡点操作。结合形态临盘安排，波动基数大更考验进场点位。综合来看，今日黄金短线操作思路上指南金师建议回调做多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方短期重点关注1998-2000Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1965-1968Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　3.21Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1998-2000Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1985-1975Nearby, break down and take a look1965frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1965-1968Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1980-1990Nearby, break down and take a look2000frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


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