Guide Metallographer:3.20Today's gold trend analysis shows that gold prices have broken through and continued to rise

Market Review:


InternationalgoldFriday(3month17day)Significant increase in closing price1918.51dollar/Ounces, highest price1964.75dollar/Ounces, lowest price1914.19dollar/Ounces, closing price1959.11dollar/ounce.


Interpretation of the Golden News:


The United States announced on Friday3月一年期通胀率预期为3.8%, lower than market expectations4.1%, previous value is4.1%； U.S.A3The initial value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for the month was recorded63.4%, lower than market expectations67, previous value is67。


　　密歇根大学消费者调查主任Joanne Hsu表示，消费者信心指数四个月来首次下降，比2月份低5%左右，但仍比去年同期高7%。密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值的报告在硅谷银行破产之前就已经完成了85%。信心下降主要集中在收入较低、受教育程度较低和较年轻的消费者，以及持有股票最多的消费者。总体而言，该指数所有组成部分的降幅相对平均，主要是物价持续高企叠加金融动荡担忧对市场情绪造成了下行动力。


　　华尔街日报记者Nick TimiraoAcceptingCNBC采访时表示，美联储下周的决定可能取决于未来几天的市场反应，选择加息25个基点是因为市场状况将改善；而暂停加息的话是因为担忧信贷问题会加剧，最好是慢慢行动。我们从美联储听到的一切都是，美联储拥有解决金融稳定问题的工具，因此可以专注于恢复物价稳定的目标。


　　美国联邦储蓄保险公司前副主席托马斯·霍尼格表示，用点时间想想，我们有个20万亿美元的产业，有个3千亿美元的银行突然崩盘，这是系统性的问题。以前没人以为这是真的，记住这点，我们正在经历一场冲击，我们的国家在不到一年的时间里把利率提高了20倍，这会冲击整个银行业。经济学家朱迪·谢尔顿表示，我认为他(Chairman of the Federal Reserve)应该停止加息，美联储应该停下加息脚步。因为在过去的一年里，他们眨眼间就将加息常态化，但是美联储持续加息并不是有效降低通胀率的最优解。美联储应该检查一下他们的分析模型输出的假设，他们的分析模型不能把“利率越高通胀越低”奉为真理，用习惯性不可逆的加息或降息去指导经济，这种做法只会令经济蒙受损失。


　　花旗经济学家在一份报告中表示，美国消费者信心指数3月初有所下降，但降幅不大，与近期其它信心指标相符，这表明近期市场动荡的影响目前还不大。密歇根大学消费者信心指数终值可能会进一步下降，但如果未来几周形势进一步企稳，消费者信心应该会继续得到支撑。消费者对银行危机的新闻报道很敏感，但如果没有新的进展，这些报道的影响可能会逐渐减弱，同时消费者对股票投资波动等因素也很敏感，到目前为止，股市仍然受到支撑，甚至高于2022年底的水平。


　　道富环球投资管理(SSgA)Chief Economist ofSimona Mocuta称，如果美联储下周不加息，投资者可能会更加恐慌，他们会立即开始猜测美联储等监管机构是否在隐藏什么，“在这个混乱的时刻，继续加息能给人一种政策连续的感觉。这有点像一个稳定市场的锚，决策者在这样的时刻应该这么做。”


The world's largest goldETF--SPDR Gold TrustIncrease in position compared to the previous day6.36Tons, current position is921.08Tons.


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve3The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged on a monthly basis is34.3%Interest rate hike25Bps to4.75%-5.00%The probability of the interval is65.7%； reach5The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged on a monthly basis is26.1%Accumulated interest rate increase25The probability of a basis point is58.2%Accumulated interest rate increase50The probability of a basis point is15.8%。


Today's Gold Data:


　　15:00Germany2monthPPIMonthly rate


　　18:00eurozone1Monthly adjusted trade account


　　22:00European Central Bank President Lagarde delivers a speech


Technical analysis of gold:


　　目前市场最为关注点是市场消息面避险情绪淡化之后，黄金高位是否有效回落，而且是否有大跌的预期可能。其次是短期上行到高点，破位前高，那么是否有延续性动作，方向上如何确定。那么按照这样的走势预期，涨幅是否有效破位2000点也是较为关键点。那么针对这样的行情走势，首先一旦确立了涨幅走高，目前的形态也较为明显，涨幅持续性形态，那么要逆向下跌看待短期不会轻易改变，其次是涨幅之后破位说明强势多头力量较足，未能有较大的削弱多头力度的情况下，短期结构依旧保持多头预期。如若改变多头上行预期，需较大的反向运行或者明显的市场消息面影响，故而短期结构依旧保持多头预期看待，在没有明确的空头信号之前，不轻易改变趋势结构方向。


　　从日线结构来看，黄金技术上是已经是严重超买的状态，但实际走势并不迎合技术走势需要，目前情绪基本已经是失控状态，技术分析的有效性大大降低。之所以能够如此极端上涨，主因还是多头借着市场避险情绪在操控，单从上周五的走势上便可看出。上周五亚盘时段，市场尚且还在常规的震荡，然欧盘时段起，黄金逐步抬升结构重心，市场炒作欧美银行业危机，避险情绪再度升温，而在周五后半夜，可能因担忧周末再出突发消息，避险情绪发疯似的升温，多头无节制的拉升，使得行情突破1960测压至1988frontline.


　　4小时图属于单边上涨当中，当然是受到消息面的刺激，回调空间较小，以横盘整理代替了回踩修正，同时消息面提振加速了黄金的上涨空间。而波动基数也加大。本周短线或许会加剧这种洗盘的震荡，周初先延续涨势。但会伴随一步一回头的冲高回落走法，波动基数大。短线就有更多机会，重点在于卡点操作。15-20美元是一个小波段级别的行情。均线指标依旧多头发散，加上周线和日K线的强势收高。周初回踩以多为主。亚盘回踩欧盘上涨。具体点位结合盘中小时图级别的形态临盘安排。综合来看，今日黄金短线操作思路上指南金师建议回调做多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方短期重点关注2005-2010Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1965-1970Frontline support.


　　3.20Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds2005-2010Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1995-1985Nearby, break down and take a look1965frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1968-1970Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1980-1990Nearby, break down and take a look2000frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


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