Guide Metallographer:3.16今日黄金走势分析，金价冲高回落再度收涨

Market Review:


InternationalgoldWednesday(3month15day)震荡走高再度收涨，开盘价1903.96dollar/Ounces, highest price1930.18dollar/Ounces, lowest price1885.52dollar/Ounces, closing price1926.97dollar/ounce.


Interpretation of the Golden News:


Wednesday's announcement of the United States2monthPPIMonthly rate recorded-0.1%, lower than market expectations0.3%, previous value is0.7%； U.S.A2monthPPIMonthly rate recorded4.6%, lower than market expectations5.4%, previous value is6%； U.S.A2Monthly retail sales rate recorded-0.4%, lower than market expectations-0.3%, previous value is3%； U.S.A3Recorded by the New York Fed Manufacturing Index for the month-24.6, lower than market expectations-8, previous value is-5.8.


Commentary states that the United States2月份零售额在上月飙升后出现下滑，这表明消费者支出虽然保持了增长，但仍受到高通胀的挑战。上个月，在13个零售品类中，有9个品类零售销售下降，其中家具和餐饮行业降幅最大。报告显示，2月份汽车销量下降1.8%，加油站的销售额下降了0.6%，可能都拖累了2月的整体数据。数据显示，消费者需求开始感受到持续通胀和美联储加息的压力。尽管劳动力市场的韧性让许多美国人得以继续消费，但仍有人依赖信用卡，难以维持收支平衡。尽管如此，从零售销售报告中很难得出具体结论，因为这些数据没有经过通胀调整，而且大多只反映了商品支出。


　　美联储“影子官员”、传声筒Nick Timiraos最新撰文称，目前有更多投资者预计，由于过去一周美国两家地区性银行倒闭引发更广泛的金融动荡，美联储的加息周期可能已经结束。摩根大通首席美国分析师Michael称，现在暂停加息，将发出有关美联储解决通胀问题严肃程度的错误信号，这也可能加剧人们的担忧，即美联储对加息犹豫不决。周三，市场认为美联储在年底前将利率降至4%以下的可能性接近70%。美联储官员们说，他们的政策主要是通过收紧金融环境来实施的，比如借贷成本上升、股价下跌和美元走强。但这些政策的效果不会马上显现出来，最重要的是，他们不希望金融状况收紧到失控的程度。如果包括买卖美国国债在内的融资市场出现更严重的崩溃，可能会使美联储未来的决策更加困难。总而言之，美联储正面临着一项棘手的任务，但同时又需要收紧政策以抗击通胀。


　　摩根资产管理首席投资官Bob Michele如今预计美联储下周将暂停加息。Michele表示，经济衰退是“不可避免的”，目前最好的投资策略是坚持持有高质量债券。他预计到8月美国国债收益率曲线将全线降至最低3%的水平。他还表示，利率可能已经见顶，因为通胀已是“昨日的战役”，如今维护金融稳定才应是美联储的首要任务。“那些长期、可变、累积且滞后的影响将进一步冲击市场。我认为这只是冰山角，"Michele周三表示，“我认为未来还会出现更多的整固。还有更多的痛苦尚未到来。


The world's largest goldETF--SPDR Gold TrustIncrease in position compared to the previous day1.45Tons, current position is914.72Tons.


According toCME“美联储观察”：美联储在3month22日政策会议上继续加息的概率已经低于50%，保持利率不变的概率为59.4%Interest rate hike25Bps to4.75%-5.00%The probability of the interval is40.6%Interest rate hike50Bps to5.00%-5.25%区间的概率继续保持为0%。


Today's Gold Data:


　　19:00英国预算责任办公室就英国财政预算做简报


　　20:30Canada1Monthly wholesale sales rate


　　20:30From the United States to3month11Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week


　　20:30U.S.A2Annualized total monthly construction of new houses


　　20:30U.S.A2Total monthly construction permits


　　20:30U.S.A3Monthly Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index


　　20:30U.S.A2Monthly Import Price Index Monthly Rate


　　21:15The European Central Bank Announces Interest Rate Resolutions


　　21:45European Central Bank President Lagarde Holds a Press Conference


Technical analysis of gold:


　　黄金昨日先承压震荡，欧盘时段因瑞士信贷暴雷，触发市场避险情绪再度升温，黄金因此被持续推高，基本与美指走势同向上涨，上方高点触及1937一线，但后半夜黄金明显有所回落，日线最终收得一带有上下影线的中阳。


　　单以日线结构来看，在周二阴线的影响下，市场避险情绪原本是有淡化的，昨日亚欧盘交接期，黄金也出现一定的回撤，回踩5日线的动作，但奈何美银行业危机波及到欧洲，市场短期避险情绪再度高涨，导致黄金再受避险买盘拉升走高。不过从后半夜黄金回撤的动作和幅度来看，市场避险情绪已经有淡化的可能，毕竟当前黄金持续上涨后没有经过回修调整，涨得太过突然，这种淡化情绪在今日早盘时段也有体现，加之目前美指有所反弹且略显偏强，所以日内或有可能会进一步的淡化避险情绪，黄金因此可能会进一步的回修调整，下方着重关注5Daily line1902-00附近测试。至于行情还是否会继续上涨，则依旧要依赖基本面的发酵，市场避险情绪的催化，而这种情绪无从预判和掌控，所以黄金多头面临的未知风险反倒会更大。


　　结合小时图走势，昨晚预期黄金后半夜可能会围绕1930-10区间震荡，后半夜行情也如期在此区域内运行，但整体结构重心却有下移，说明市场避险情绪已经有所淡化，这也导致今日亚盘时段开盘后也出现一波情绪化的跟随下跌，但目前依然未有效跌破1910，所以日内如果行情偏强，则需要守住1910进行震荡。而如果按照趋势结构，日内亚盘时段震荡一下，如果没有强势拉升，那么欧盘时段也可能会再有一波下修动作，届时下方着重关注1900附近争夺，但欧盘也充满不确定性风险，即需要关注相关基本面的影响，如果瑞士信贷暴雷问题得到解决，那么黄金也可能进一步扩大调整动作，但如果继续发酵升温，那么黄金也可能借着1900支撑再度回弹。


　　黄金近期受到风险事件影响走的波幅非常大请各位投资者一定注意风控，4小时级别走势上暂时维持在高位的震荡修复走势中，目前出现一定程度的背离倾向于在短期走势上还有延续的调整空间。尾盘在一波拉升之后的延续力度也并不是太好，小时级别走势上目前K线已经开始逐步承压短周期均线运行，在短线走势上大概率还有一定的下行空间，但是也不能排除宽幅震荡的走法，今日金价上方关注1930Suppress, follow below1900的支撑。今日开盘金价小幅回调，操作上还是延续昨晚的思路，等待回落做多。综合来看，今日黄金短线操作思路上指南金师建议回调做多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方短期重点关注1935-1937Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1905-1907Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm


　　3.16Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1930-1933Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1920-1910Nearby, break down and take a look1905frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1905-1908Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1920-1930Nearby, break down and take a look1940frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


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