ATFX: USACPIData Attacks, US Dollar Index Will Face Another Shock

U.S.A2Monthly and quarterly adjustmentsCPIAnnual growth rate, expected today20:30Published, the former value is6.4%, expected6%If the published value is less than the previous value, then the United StatesCPIThe growth rate will decrease for eight consecutive months. The core factor causing high inflation in the United States is the rise in oil and natural gas prices.2Yue Er Meicrude oilfuturesPrice slightly declined2.57 %The mid-term trend is a narrow range of fluctuations, which is no longer able to drive high inflation in the United States.2Natural gas prices slightly increased in the month2.43%The medium-term trend is a significant bear, which also cannot drive high inflation in the United States. After energy prices remain stable,CPIIt is difficult to surpass the previous growth rate. So we believe that tonight in the United StatesCPIThe data is likely to meet expectations.


CPIThe reason why data is being watched by the market is because it will affect the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Since the problem of high inflation has been significantly alleviated, there is no sufficient reason for the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates. Due to2The month's non farm employment report performed better than expected, leading to an irrational expectation in the market that the Federal Reserve will continue to maintain a pace of aggressive interest rate hikes. This is an irrational expectation because it is based on short-term economic data changes and does not have stability. So, in the3After the release of non farm employment data in January, this irrational expectation quickly declined. The collapse of Silicon Valley banks has sounded an alarm for the Federal Reserve: continuously rising interest rates will have a negative impact on the fragile banking industry in the United States.2020In, the Federal Reserve recklessly lowered interest rates, and commercial banks in the United States bought a large number of high priced US bonds.2022In, the Federal Reserve recklessly raised interest rates again, and the positions of American commercial banks in government bonds showed significant losses. For leading banks such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo, the impact of floating losses in the bond market may not be significant. But there are not only large banks in the United States, but also numerous small and medium-sized banks. If the Federal Reserve continues to push up interest rates to suppress bond prices, it is difficult to guarantee that these small and medium-sized banks will not experience a wave of bankruptcy like Silicon Valley banks.


The yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds is rapidly declining, and bond prices are rebounding, which can to some extent alleviate the pressure of floating losses on the US banking industry. The yield of treasury bond isforeign exchangeThe anchor of market pricing. The 10-year US Treasury bond yield has a clear peaked structure, indicating that the airdrop trend of the US dollar index will continue.


The US dollar index will face another shock. Last Friday, the US dollar index fell0.57%The US dollar index fell again this Monday 0.97%The US dollar index is highly likely to fall again today0.5%Above and completely stabilized at104Below the integer level. Benefiting from the weakening of the US dollar index,goldThe price has already taken up1900The US dollar barrier, and the euro has also approached against the US dollar1.07High order. We tend to believe that last Friday's non farm data and the collapse of Silicon Valley banks will be the turning points for the rebound of the US dollar index in February. In the first half of this year, the US dollar index is likely to fall below100Integer level. From a technical perspective, the US dollar index2month24The current pullback has evolved into a hub3Market prices hit the upper limit of Central IIS1This is a typical characteristic of trend turning.

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There are risks in the market, and investment needs to be cautious. The above content only represents the analyst's personal views and does not constitute any operational suggestions. Please do not consider this report as the sole reference. At different times, analysts' perspectives may change, and updates will not be notified separately.
2023-03-14