ATFX: Powell's speech shook the market, and the US dollar index approached106Gateway

Most Fed officials are2The beautiful non-farm employment report released at the beginning of the month cheered, and the market's expectation that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates became stronger and stronger. Yesterday, Powell mentioned in the Senate testimony that if the overall economic data continues to be strong, the Federal Reserve is ready to accelerate the pace of interest rate increase, and the terminal interest rate may be higher than previously expected. This hawkish statement ignited the market's bullish sentiment again, and the dollar pointed to a sharp rise1.3%, highest touch105.83, distance106整数关口仅一步之遥。但是，美联储不总是正确的，就像2021年下半年，美国CPI增速还在5%左右时，美联储主席鲍威尔坚定的认为那是“暂时性高通胀”，所以没有必要加息。2022yearCPI迅速升高，美联储不得不滞后性采取激进加息政策。2023年美国的通胀形势和劳动力市场形势如何，或许不一定会像鲍威尔所说的那样“持续强劲”。


As can be seen from the above figure,2月份的非农就业人口异常放大，严重缺乏连续性。2022year7month~12月份，美国的非农就业人口从新增56.8万人降低至新增26万人，每个月份减少一部分，数据趋势连续性较强。只有今年一月份数据异常放量、突然走高。这不得不让人怀疑1月份数据存在失真的情况。基于此种判断，本周五的非农就业报告显得至关重要。如果新增非农就业人口降低至20万人以下，表示一月份的非农数据只是短暂反弹，不具有持续性。如果本周五的新增非农业人口依旧维持在50万人高位，则大企业裁员和经济数据良好的矛盾将更为凸显。


值得注意的是，虽然美联储主席鲍威尔的讲话导致美元指数隔夜大幅上涨，但是十年期美债收益率的隔夜走势基本保持温和波动。债券市场是foreign exchange市场的定价锚，稳定的债券收益率意味着美元指数的上涨缺乏后劲，没有持续性。当然，也存在一些特殊情况，美元指数的变动会引导债券市场走势，但这种概率比较低，不能做常态化分析。


虽然从美联储货币政策和债券市场收益率角度都可以分析出美元指数的反弹走势不会持续太久，但是，美元指数的技术走势却给出相反的结论。在当前的反弹波段当中，中枢2已经深入到中枢1的区间之内，这是趋势转折的特征。最近的一次回调低点没有和中枢2重叠，意味着反弹走势仍将延续。叠加昨日长阳线突破回调波段的高点，所以技术角度看，美元指数延续涨势的概率较高。

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2023-03-08