Guide Metallographer:3.8今日黄金走势分析，鲍威尔展现“鹰派”预期

Market Review:


InternationalgoldTuesday(3month7day)Significantly lower, opening price1850.80dollar/Ounces, highest price1852.57dollar/Ounces, lowest price1815.46dollar/Ounces, closing price1817.81dollar/ounce.


Interpretation of the Golden News:


　　美联储主席鲍威尔表示，如果有必要，美联储准备加快加息步伐，终端利率或将高于预期。美联储很可能在下一次政策会议上调对加息周期终端利率的预期。到目前为止，我们看到的数据，而且我们还有其他数据要看，在会议之前我们还有重要的数据要看，这可能表明对终端利率的预期会高于我们去年12月做出的预测。到目前为止的数据表明，我们将在未来的经济摘要有一个更高的终端利率。住房服务通胀将在未来6-12个月回落。工资一直在放缓，但劳动力市场并未出现疲软。将继续根据即将发布的全部数据以及对增长和通胀前景的影响，逐次会议做出决定。最新经济数据强于预期。1月份的招聘、支出和通胀数据在一定程度上扭转了早些时候的疲软趋势。目前为止，除房地产外的核心服务领域几乎没有出现通胀回落的迹象。对前几个季度的修正幅度表明通胀高于预期。


　　高盛分析，再次上调对美联储利率的预期，目前预计峰值利率将达到5.5%-5.75%。目前预计，除了之前预期的3Month5Month and6月加息各加息25个基点外，7月也将加息25个基点。预计3月会议召开前的数据将喜忧参半，但总体不错，因此我们对3Monthly interest rate increase25个基点的预期可能会比较准，但也存在FOMCraise interest rates50个基点的风险，无论3月加息幅度有多大，美联储对2023年峰值利率的新预测中值都料将上升50Basis points, to5.5-5.75%。


　　分析称，鲍威尔指出，核心服务价格继续走高，没有看到任何通货紧缩的迹象。而机构认为，自上次会议以来，美联储官员发表的部分讲话在一定程度上已经有效地让市场意识到，也许美联储会加息至比预期略高的水平。这可能意味着，美联储不仅将在未来两次会议上各加息25个基点，还可能在未来三次会议上都加息25个基点，甚至加息50个基点也有可能。


The world's largest goldETF--SPDR Gold TrustPosition decrease compared to the previous day5.5Tons, current position is906.62Tons.


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve3Monthly interest rate increase25Bps to4.75%-5.00%The probability of the interval is29.5%Interest rate hike50Bps to5.00%-5.25%The probability of the interval is70.5%； reach5Monthly cumulative interest rate increase50The probability of a basis point is22.1%Accumulated interest rate increase75Bps to5.25%-5.50%The probability of the interval is60.3%Accumulated interest rate increase100Bps to5.50%-5.75%The probability of the interval is17.6%。


Today's Gold Data:


　　15:00Germany1Monthly industrial output rate after quarterly adjustment


　　18:00Eurozone Q4GDPAnnual rate final value


　　18:00Quarterly employment rate in the Eurozone after quarterly adjustment in the fourth quarter


　　18:00欧洲央行行长拉加德参加活动


　　21:15U.S.A2monthADPEmployment numbers


　　21:30U.S.A1Monthly trade account


　　23:00Bank of Canada Announces Interest Rate Resolution


　　23:00Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivers monetary policy testimony


The next day03:00Federal Reserve Announces Economic Situation Brown Book


Technical analysis of gold:


Gold Yesterday1850受阻回落，日线收取大阴线，预计行情今日还延续。现在的关注点在于前低1804是否能够支撑住，如果下破，我们需要继续关注1797-1787一线的支撑情况。如果1787不破，黄金有可能会出现一波反弹，但是如果有效下破，下方空间可能还有20-30美金左右。目前，黄金的上方阻力在1828附近，小周期阻力在1823附近，如果价格没有突破这一区域，我们可以考虑空单。行情如果走弱，也不排除1818先跌一波，不过不建议这么激进做空。


　　4小时级别走势上连续大幅下跌之后目前的背离稍微有些偏大，价格也基本触及到前期的支撑带附近，小周期走势上在连续的慢跌震荡之后技术形态有开始逐步开始修复的迹象，在短线走势上会有一定的反弹修复出现，但是力度还有待考量。总的来说，短期下挫之后下方依旧具备跌幅空间，关注跌幅的延续情况，其次参与参考反抽机会跟空，下方支撑前期低点参考1804Frontline, daily attention1818附近机会可空，若欧盘不见反抽可临盘跟空继续看回落！上方关注1820Resistance, pay attention below1800的支撑情况，综合来看，今日黄金短线操作思路上指南金师建议反弹做空为主，回调做多为辅，上方短期重点关注1820-1823Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1804-1800Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　3.8Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1820-1823Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1810-1805Nearby, break down and take a look1800frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1800-1803Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1810-1815Nearby, break down and take a look1820frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


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Solid Harvest Operation Plan:


　　1、5000The US dollar mini position is operated with a stable and conservative approach, with an expected return point of50%above


　　2、1-3A standard position of 10000 US dollars, operated through a combination of medium and short term operations, with expected revenue potential70%above


　　3、8Senior positions above $10000, supplemented by short-term and medium-term positions, with long-term positions as the main focus, with expected revenue potential90%above