Guide Metallographer:3.7Today's gold trend analysis, pay attention to Powell's congressional testimony

　　goldMessage interpretation:


　　今天上午11:30，澳洲联储如期加息25个基点，将利率上调至3.60%, for2012year5月以来最高水平，自2022year4Accumulated interest rate hikes since the beginning of the month10次，共加息350Basis points.


　　澳洲联储表示，预计需要进一步收紧货币政策。全球通胀仍然很高。尽管许多经济体的服务价格通胀仍处于高位，但总体来看，通胀正在放缓。通胀率回到目标水平还需要一段时间。


　　这边澳联储结束，接着晚间我们将迎来又一个重磅事件，美联储主席鲍威尔在众议院的证词。


　　鲍威尔今晚的演讲有两点特殊之处：


　　首先是眼下距离鲍威尔上一次的公开露面，已经过去了整整一个月的时间，这一个月的时间里市场发生了翻天覆地的变化，随着美国通胀展现出出人意料的“粘性”，就业市场则依然火热，市场的加息预期正不断升温，投资者将急于从鲍威尔的口中寻找更多货币政策走向的线索。目前市场计价美国加息50bp的概率已经来到了30%，如果他还保持和上次一致的讲话论调，那么会被市场解读为鸽派，对美元来说就是一个打击。


　　另一个特殊之处则在于，本周是美联储3月议息会议前的最后一周，然而从联储迄今公开的日程安排看，官员讲话里却仅有主席鲍威尔一人将在本周公开谈论货币政策(周四美联储理事巴尔的演讲将主要涉及加密货币)。要么就是美联储在本月晚些时候的非农和CPI数据发布前，不想给市场太多的干扰信号，鲍威尔今晚也可能“打太极”；要么就是已经憋了整整一个月没亮相的鲍威尔相信，他本周的国会证词足以清晰梳理出美联储货币政策的下一步方向。


　　至于最终结果如何，我们不妨在今明两日拭目以待！


Today's Gold Data:


　　11:30Federal Reserve of Australia Announces Interest Rate Decision


　　14:45Switzerland2Unemployment rate after quarterly adjustment


　　15:00britain2monthHalifaxMonthly rate of housing price index after quarterly adjustment


　　16:00China2monthforeign exchangereserve


　　23:00U.S.A1Monthly wholesale sales rate


　　23:00Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivers monetary policy testimony


Technical analysis of gold:


Yesterday, gold rose and fell as scheduled, indicating significant upward pressure. Friday's gold tail sneaks into the closing bald positive line, basically breaking through1833The region, but the kinetic energy has not continued, indicating that the bullish market is starting to oscillate in the region again, waiting for guidance from non agricultural sectors. The technology is shifting from top to bottom1833Becoming the first support, which means encountering it earlier this week1833The region can still repeatedly go long. Since the breakthrough occurs in the middle of the night, there is still a second round of technical backtesting to verify the effectiveness of the breakthrough. This time1805Rebound, we also indicated that it was in place. Yesterday, we were approaching1860The region also indicates that the second round of short selling in the game will solidify the bottom.


The first wave of short selling signal on the daily chart1959fall1860Stabilizing and rebounding, so now the low rebound, which means this is the first pressure area, encountering still short shorts, followed by support1860The second highest point of rebound1881reach1890A regional high is a strong pressure, and as long as the rebound cannot break through, it is still a rebound. The flag shape of the daily line has not changed, so do not fluctuate in one day to change the outlook. So the pressure area should be the first to focus on1860Down the track, followed by up the track1881reach1890Area is sufficient. No breakthrough yesterday1860Starting to adjust, indicating significant pressure. Today, we will continue to focus on backtesting and consolidation1830Gains and losses.


The four hour, daily, and weekly charts are still in a bearish structure, but currently they are still in a short-term trend1805In terms of the rebound and the overall trend, I personally tend to be bearish towards gold, which is gold1805After the completion of the rise, there will be a sharp drop in the price. Gold since last week1805The bottom rebound has a certain degree of persistence, accompanied by a small period of breaking point. Currently, relying on the medium track, a wave of sustained rebound has emerged,4When looking at the hourly chart, the rebound critical point of the short line small step is1830. Overall, today's gold short-term operation strategy is guided by the guidance of gold analysts, who suggest that the main focus is to rebound and short, supplemented by a pullback and long, with a focus on the short-term above1855-1858Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1833-1830Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　3.7Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1850-1852Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1840-1835Nearby, break down and take a look1830frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1830-1833Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1840-1845Nearby, break down and take a look1850frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


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