ATFX: RBA raised interest rates25Base point,AUDUSDShort-term sharp decline

This morning11:30The Federal Reserve of Australia announced the results of the latest interest rate resolution and raised interest rates25Base point, benchmark interest rate from3.35%Increase to3.6%。 After the message is released,AUDUSDShort-term sharp decline,20The market price will change from0.6740Down to0.6698, decline42Base point. Only a higher rate increase than expected can boost the Australian dollar. A rate increase that meets the expectation will only have a negative effect. This rule also applies to the interest rate decisions of the central banks of other countries. The monetary policy statement said that inflation will fall this year and next2025In the middle of the year3%左右，中期通胀预期仍很稳定；失业率保持在近50年来的最低水平。货币政策的目标是遏制高通，底线是失业率不提高。一旦失业率提高，则意味着宏观经济陷入衰退周期、高利率正在遏制制造、投资和消费市场的发展。这是各国中央银行最不希望看到的。


澳大利亚的通货膨胀率每个季度公布一次。去年四季度的CPIThe growth rate is7.8%，连续六个月走高。虽然货币政策声明当中提到中期通胀预期稳定，但短期内高通胀仍然主导澳大利亚宏观经济。反观美国，CPI增速已经连降八个月，高通胀问题早已经不是宏观经济的主要矛盾。从这一点来看，美联储停止加息的时间点一定会早于澳洲联储。在这种中长期预期影响之下，澳元兑美元存在持续的升值动力，AUDUSD中期看涨。


2022year5月份以来，澳大利亚十年期国债收益率处于宽幅震荡状态，2月份冲高至3.9050%后回落，下一阶段有可能以3.3890%为目标震荡回落。只有债市收益率表现强势，对应货币才能拥有升值潜力。受加息预期影响，德国十年期国债收益率正快速上行，EURUSD同期走高。澳大利亚和德国债市的不同表现，意味着在美元指数中期跌势下，欧元的升值幅度将远大于澳元。据此判断，澳元并不是2023年首选的“美联储停止加息预期”下的首选交易标的。


From a technical perspective,AUSUSD在二月份的跌幅过大，已经深入前一个整理中枢的内部，这是趋势转折的信号。上图中0.6585是重要支撑位，市场价格一旦跌破该价位，多头趋势将失去结构优势。美元指数的走势仍起到主导作用。2月份美元指数显著反弹，如果本周五非农就业报告数据表现不佳，美元指数的涨势将告一段落，澳元将获得升值动力。澳元是商品货币，受到铁矿石价格波动的影响。去年11月份以来，矿石价格持续上涨，累计涨幅近50%。澳大利亚铁矿石出口受益，这在一定程度上对澳元形成提振。

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There are risks in the market, and investment needs to be cautious. The above content only represents the analyst's personal views and does not constitute any operational suggestions. Please do not consider this report as the sole reference. At different times, analysts' perspectives may change, and updates will not be notified separately.
2023-03-07