Guide Metallographer:3.3今日黄金走势分析，金价涨势放缓或陷震荡

　　goldMessage interpretation:


Looking Forward to Today Friday(3month3day)：国际黄金开盘延续昨日后半段回升之力先行走强，美元指数及美债10年期收益率先行表现走弱，对其产生支撑。


　　整体来看，美元指数再度运行在中轨及短期均线上方，多头动力有再度转强之势，周图虽遇阻中轨阻力，但附图指标和主图动力仍暗示有突破的节奏，另外，美债收益率也保持着明显的看涨动力和趋势，周线走势也有望向上扩大动能，故此短中期看，将会对金价造成利空压力，金价虽也技术短期看涨，但也遭遇阻力，短期波动或陷入震荡盘整，之后则再度走强。


We will pay attention to the United States within the day2monthMarkitService industryPMIFinal value and the United States2monthISMNon manufacturingPMI，预期将利空金价，故此，今日或冲高回落收线。


　　那么，再展望下周，根据早间，美联储理事沃勒表示的，近期数据的强劲可能是暂时的来看，下周非农等数据，预期也将大概率从1月份的强劲数据中回落，而再度提振金价走强，因而再到3月份加息，大概率也将势25个基点了，那也就是继续反弹攀升了。


　　除非就业和通胀数据没有从1月份的强劲数据中回落，美联储可能需要提高利率，那么金价将会再度转为下行。


　　根据近期数据显示，劳动力市场非但没有放松，反而在收紧。美国上周初请人数再次下降，表明劳动力市场持续走强，这可能促使美联储继续加息。零售销售和支出数据也表明，需求也比较强劲，如果下周数据继续持强，金价则会再度持续回落，去触及周图或月图说到的支撑，目前也只是在日图的支撑位展开反弹，动力还有待确定。


　　长期来看，则市场观点基本一致；目前美联储利率峰值再度被推升，但这也会降低美国经济软着陆的几率。另外，利率的进一步上升最终也将导致大幅降息。如果美联储真的加息到6%，那只是意味着它可以在以后降息600个基点，这对黄金来说是非常有利的。未来将是持有黄金的好时机。


　　一旦美国加息周期明显结束，或转为降息政策，那么黄金的吸引力将更加显著。


　　如果要到美联储期望的2%目标，个人仍然预计会到2024年的下半年或者是2025年初，故此，降息预期也将放在2024Year or2025年。所以，今年仍然是偏震荡的一年，但也是长期看涨进行买入机会的一年，未来10年可长期持有，上看3500美元或更高都在预料之中。


Today's Focus Data:


　　15:00Germany1Monthly adjusted trade account


　　15:45France1Monthly industrial output rate


　　16:50France2Monthly service industryPMIFinal value


　　16:55Germany2Monthly service industryPMIFinal value


　　17:00eurozone2Monthly service industryPMIFinal value


　　17:30britain2Monthly service industryPMI


　　18:00eurozone1monthPPIMonthly rate


　　22:45U.S.A2monthMarkitService industryPMIFinal value


　　23:00U.S.A2monthISMNon manufacturingPMI


　　24:00美联储洛根在一场活动上致开幕词


The next day04:00美联储理事鲍曼发表讲话


The next day05:45美联储巴尔金就通胀发表讲话


Technical analysis of gold:


Multiple tests every other day in gold1830The effectiveness of gateway support, followed by repeated surges1840Nearby, basically maintaining1830—1840The interval undergoes repeated oscillations. High this week1845Blocked fall back1830关口，和预期完全吻合，从当前走势来看短期可能见底，毕竟1800附近几番测试都没有跌破，现在四小时直接一根底部大阳放量拉升，从而打开布林上轨空间。加之1830关口支撑已经得到多次验证，要跌昨天就已经跌下去了，那么目前而且1830为多空分水岭，若是跌破那么跌势将快速延续。今日周五可能就会维持1830—1845The range undergoes oscillations and no major movements are expected unless it falls below1830Gateway.


　　4The current shape of the hour chart shows a slight passivation. After a bottom rebound at the beginning of the week, yesterday's space contraction was relatively small and did not go out of direction. See if the rebound hasn't broken through yet1845Looking back, there was no downward trend yesterday, and it remained at the mid track close, with a slightly higher position, resulting in insufficient short-term strength4The hourly form of long and irregular. The Asian market may still choose to wait and see, waiting for the European and American markets to break out of the appropriate range.1小时图此前一波小幅反弹之后，昨日进行回踩确认，但仍收稳在偏高的位置，使得今日并不算弱势。可能伴随冲高收低的走法。小周期形态多空来回转换当中，以临盘为准。综合来看，今日黄金短线操作思路上指南金师建议回调做多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方短期重点关注1845-1847Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1828-1830Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　3.3Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1843-1845Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1835-1830Nearby, break down and take a look1828frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1828-1830Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1835-1840Nearby, break down and take a look1845frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


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Solid Harvest Operation Plan:


　　1、5000The US dollar mini position is operated with a stable and conservative approach, with an expected return point of50%above


　　2、1-3A standard position of 10000 US dollars, operated through a combination of medium and short term operations, with expected revenue potential70%above


　　3、8Senior positions above $10000, supplemented by short-term and medium-term positions, with long-term positions as the main focus, with expected revenue potential90%above