Guide Metallographer:3.3Today's gold trend analysis shows that the gold price falls back and falls into a high level

Market Review:


InternationalgoldThursday(3month2day)Maintain a volatile trend, opening price1841.86dollar/Ounces, highest price1842.03dollar/Ounces, lowest price1829.83dollar/Ounces, closing price1836.48dollar/ounce.


Interpretation of the Golden News:


Thursday's announcement from the United States to2month24Record of initial claims for unemployment benefits for the current week1910000 people, lower than market expectations19.510000 people.


　　评论称，美国上周初请人数有所下降，仍处于历史低位，这是劳动力市场吃紧的最新迹象，表明多数企业不愿解雇员工。这些数据凸显了美国劳动力市场的持久强劲。虽然近几个月来，一些知名公司(主要是科技和金融领域的公司)宣布裁员，但整个经济领域的裁员人数仍处于历史低位。尽管如此，经济学家和投资者仍在密切关注初请数据，看是否有迹象表明劳动力市场在依然居高不下的通胀、高企的劳动力成本和美联储加息的重压下，有开始崩溃的些许迹象。也许下周将公布的数据，包括1月份的职位空缺和2月份的就业报告，将让人们进一步了解美国劳动力市场的状况。


　　美联储理事沃勒表示，即将公布的数据可能将显示经济活动和通胀恢复下降。通胀进展不及预期的情况既适用于整体通胀，也适用于核心通胀。有部分让人感到乐观的因素，比如租金上涨的急剧减速。最近的数据强调了这样一种观点，即将通胀率降至目标的这场斗争将比一两个月前许多人的预期要慢、要长。近期数据的强劲可能是暂时的。工资增长速度比过去几十年都要快，这可能导致通货膨胀率居高不下。过度紧张的劳动力市场使价格稳定的道路变得复杂。1月份的就业数据打消了我们在实现双重目标(就业和通胀)时可能面临双向风险的担忧。零售销售和支出数据表明，在减少需求方面的进展可能已经停滞。如果就业和通胀数据没有从1月份的强劲数据中回落，美联储可能需要提高利率，超过12month5.1-5.4%的“中央趋势”观点。


　　美联储博斯蒂克表示，他倾向于在3月政策会议上继续加息25个基点，但是还是要观察更新的经济数据；如果经济数据强于预期，就需要调整对未来利率走势的预期；离物价恢复稳定还有很长的路要走；他还表示，美联储可能在今年夏季中后期暂停加息。


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve3Monthly interest rate increase25Bps to4.75%-5.00%The probability of the interval is70.8%Interest rate hike50Bps to5.00%-5.25%The probability of the interval is29.2%； reach5Monthly cumulative interest rate increase25The probability of a basis point is0%Accumulated interest rate increase50The probability of a basis point is67.3%Accumulated interest rate increase75Bps to5.25%-5.50%The probability of the interval is31.2%Accumulated interest rate increase100Bps to5.50%-5.75%The probability of the interval is1.5%。


Today's Focus Data:


　　15:00Germany1Monthly adjusted trade account


　　15:45France1Monthly industrial output rate


　　16:50France2Monthly service industryPMIFinal value


　　16:55Germany2Monthly service industryPMIFinal value


　　17:00eurozone2Monthly service industryPMIFinal value


　　17:30britain2Monthly service industryPMI


　　18:00eurozone1monthPPIMonthly rate


　　22:45U.S.A2monthMarkitService industryPMIFinal value


　　23:00U.S.A2monthISMNon manufacturingPMI


　　24:00美联储洛根在一场活动上致开幕词


The next day04:00美联储理事鲍曼发表讲话


The next day05:45美联储巴尔金就通胀发表讲话


Technical analysis of gold:


Multiple tests every other day in gold1830The effectiveness of gateway support, followed by repeated surges1840Nearby, basically maintaining1830—1840The interval undergoes repeated oscillations. High this week1845Blocked fall back1830关口，和预期完全吻合，从当前走势来看短期可能见底，毕竟1800附近几番测试都没有跌破，现在四小时直接一根底部大阳放量拉升，从而打开布林上轨空间。加之1830关口支撑已经得到多次验证，要跌昨天就已经跌下去了，那么目前而且1830为多空分水岭，若是跌破那么跌势将快速延续。今日周五可能就会维持1830—1845The range undergoes oscillations and no major movements are expected unless it falls below1830Gateway.


　　4The current shape of the hour chart shows a slight passivation. After a bottom rebound at the beginning of the week, yesterday's space contraction was relatively small and did not go out of direction. See if the rebound hasn't broken through yet1845Looking back, there was no downward trend yesterday, and it remained at the mid track close, with a slightly higher position, resulting in insufficient short-term strength4The hourly form of long and irregular. The Asian market may still choose to wait and see, waiting for the European and American markets to break out of the appropriate range.1小时图此前一波小幅反弹之后，昨日进行回踩确认，但仍收稳在偏高的位置，使得今日并不算弱势。可能伴随冲高收低的走法。小周期形态多空来回转换当中，以临盘为准。综合来看，今日黄金短线操作思路上指南金师建议回调做多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方短期重点关注1845-1847Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1828-1830Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　3.3Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1843-1845Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1835-1830Nearby, break down and take a look1828frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1828-1830Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1835-1840Nearby, break down and take a look1845frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


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