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Guide Metallographer:3.3Today's gold trend analysis shows that the gold price has rebounded after shock

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  goldMessage interpretation:


Thursday(3month2day)亚洲时段,现货黄金震荡微跌,因为市场对美联储更高终端利率预期和更长时间维持高利率水平的预期继续给美债收益率提供上涨动能,10年期美债收益率刷新11month14The highest point since the beginning of the day4.028%,美元也小幅反弹,令金价承压。不过,技术面来看,金价连续三个交易日反弹后,后市下行风险有所缓解,若能守住5Daily moving average1824.87附近支撑,则后市存在进步反弹机会。本交易日将迎来美国初请失业金人数变动和美联储理事沃勒的讲话。


  尽管美国2monthISMmanufacturingPMI连续第四个月收缩,但已经从此前录得的逾2年半低点回升,有迹象表明工厂活动开始企稳。若将在周五(3month3day)Published in the United States2monthISMService industryPMI再次证实工资成本上升正在推动服务业价格压力加速上升,或预示下周公布的美国2月非农就业报告继续火热,黄金可能会进一步回落。明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡里周三重申,美国的通货膨胀率仍然很高,他们的工作是降低通货膨胀率。他补充说:“现在的工资增长太高,无法与2%的通胀保持一致。”他还指出,美联储迄今为止的加息并没有降低服务业通胀,这令人担忧。


  亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克在周三发表的一篇文章中表示,他仍然认为政策利率需要保持在5.00%-5.25%区间,并维持这一水平进入2024年。“一些评论人士认为,美联储应该考虑改变上调联邦基金利率的路线,以免我们走得太远,造成过度的经济困难。但历史告诉我们,如果我们在高通胀被彻底降服之前就放松政策,它可能会卷土重来。金价可能会窄幅震荡……许多人(正在)关注美联储本月开会时将做什么,以及他们是否会继续加息以及加息多少,这是关键问题。”


  黄金在整个1月份都处于上升趋势,市场对通胀放缓持乐观情绪,且美联储不断发表鸽派言论。在今年第一次美联储政策会议公布后,金价于2month2日创下近十个月新高,逼近1960美元。但随后公布的美国1月份非农就业报告证实美国劳动力市场出人意料的火爆,增加了超过50万个工作岗位,这改变了市场对美联储放松货币政策的预期,金价又急转直下回到了以前的态势。美联储政策制定者将在3month21-22日会议结束时提供对美联储货币政策路径的最新预测。货币市场预计,美国联邦基金利率将在9Monthly5.483%Peak value of.


Today's Gold Data:


  18:00eurozone2monthCPI年率初值及月率


  18:00eurozone1Monthly unemployment rate


  20:30Announced by the European Central Bank2Monthly Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes


  21:30From the United States to2month24Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week


The next day03:00美联储理事沃勒就美国经济前景发表讲话


  今日技术面分析:


  黄金昨天的走势和预期完全一致,拉高回落,目前受阻于1845附近后回撤,但今天并不是变盘的时间点,从短线走势来看,今天很可能是个震荡局,和昨天一样,而1845的回落在预期之内,所以我们在昨天给出了1841-1843附近做空的点位,昨天的走势是黄金不断拉高,美元不断回落,晚间美元反弹,黄金受阻回落,一切都是顺其自然。


  黄金目前虽然回落,但不宜追空,短线很可能还会再拉起来,而昨天是日线反弹第二天,加之4Hour levelMACD已经站上0轴上方,显示短线多头力度并不弱,所以1844受阻之后的回落仅仅是回调,而非下跌。当然,黄金接下来也不一定涨多高,但能量消耗需要时间,而这个时间,就是完成短线的强转弱的时间,也是黄金多头最后一冲的时间,上去了继续涨,反之就要开始跌了。


  4The hour chart has made its first bottom rebound and has reached a key resistance point1805From the perspective of rebound space, it has already been relatively large, breaking the pattern of weak and negative decline. In addition4小时二浪下跌的空间已释放完毕。目前进入中期多空抉择当中,小级别一浪反弹之后是重新转跌还是延续二浪反弹有待确认。就看今天亚欧盘的强弱转换,操作上依旧要把时间点卡到欧美盘,当然即使是向上反弹,也是震荡式的,而非单边多头。反弹过程中遇到阻力也会有所回落,操作上可以卡区间高空低多,把握震荡区间对待。综合来看,今日黄金短线操作思路上指南金师建议回调做多为主,反弹做空为辅,上方短期重点关注1845-1847Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1823-1825Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


  3.2Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1843-1845Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1835-1830Nearby, break down and take a look1825frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1823-1825Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1835-1840Nearby, break down and take a look1845frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


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