Guide to gold analyst: gold trend analysis, gold rising pressure, air force coming out

　　goldMessage interpretation:


　　消息面上，昨天晚上公布的美国2monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIFinal value recorded47.3，不及预期；美国2monthISMmanufacturingPMIRecorded47.7, lower than expected48And previous values47.4，虽然制造业数据一如既往的差，但其中也不乏亮点，ISMThe price payment data was significantly better than expected. After the release of the data, the Federal Reserve swap market once priced2023year9The monthly peak interest rate is5.50%。 In addition, according toCME"Fed observation",3Monthly interest rate increase50The probability of base points increases to30%。


　　美联储官员，明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利表示，目前的通胀不是由劳动力市场驱动的，他对下次会议加息25A basis point or50个基点持开放态度，并倾向于继续加息。亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克称，他仍然认为需要加息至5.00%-5.25%的区间，并需要保持在该水平，直到2024Year.


　　能够看的出来，经济的下行风险并不能改变联储的加息决心，这对于美元指数来说就是继续上行的基础


Today's Gold Data:


　　18:00eurozone2monthCPI年率初值及月率


　　18:00eurozone1Monthly unemployment rate


　　20:30Announced by the European Central Bank2Monthly Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes


　　21:30From the United States to2month24Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week


The next day03:00美联储理事沃勒就美国经济前景发表讲话


　　今日技术面分析：


　　黄金昨天的走势和预期完全一致，拉高回落，目前受阻于1845附近后回撤，但今天并不是变盘的时间点，从短线走势来看，今天很可能是个震荡局，和昨天一样，而1845的回落在预期之内，所以我们在昨天给出了1841-1843附近做空的点位，昨天的走势是黄金不断拉高，美元不断回落，晚间美元反弹，黄金受阻回落，一切都是顺其自然。


　　黄金目前虽然回落，但不宜追空，短线很可能还会再拉起来，而昨天是日线反弹第二天，加之4Hour levelMACD已经站上0轴上方，显示短线多头力度并不弱，所以1844受阻之后的回落仅仅是回调，而非下跌。当然，黄金接下来也不一定涨多高，但能量消耗需要时间，而这个时间，就是完成短线的强转弱的时间，也是黄金多头最后一冲的时间，上去了继续涨，反之就要开始跌了。


　　4The hour chart has made its first bottom rebound and has reached a key resistance point1805From the perspective of rebound space, it has already been relatively large, breaking the pattern of weak and negative decline. In addition4小时二浪下跌的空间已释放完毕。目前进入中期多空抉择当中，小级别一浪反弹之后是重新转跌还是延续二浪反弹有待确认。就看今天亚欧盘的强弱转换，操作上依旧要把时间点卡到欧美盘，当然即使是向上反弹，也是震荡式的，而非单边多头。反弹过程中遇到阻力也会有所回落，操作上可以卡区间高空低多，把握震荡区间对待。综合来看，今日黄金短线操作思路上指南金师建议回调做多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方短期重点关注1845-1847Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1823-1825Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　3.2Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1843-1845Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1835-1830Nearby, break down and take a look1825frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1823-1825Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1835-1840Nearby, break down and take a look1845frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


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