Guide Metallographer:3.2今日黄金走势分析，金价短期或陷震荡盘整

　　goldMessage interpretation:


Looking Forward to Today Thursday(3month2day)：国际黄金开盘延续隔夜尾盘回落力量先行表现走弱，美元指数延续隔夜尾盘回升力量先行走强，对其产生压力，另外本月即将公布利率决议，以及技术阻力影响，而多头反弹暂时有所限制。在下周非农等数据公布前，预计将保持一定的区间震荡行情，以等待后市的走势明朗。


　　日内将关注美国至2month24Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week(ten thousand people)，预期有所利空金价，但根据近期数据整体表现都不及预期来看，也有利好金价的风险。整体来看，走势偏震荡或继续反弹的概率较大。


　　基本面上，美国2monthISM制造业物价支付指数录得51.3，高于预期。美联储周三两名官员表示，为了减缓通胀，美联储有必要采取更激进的加息措施，同时在一段时间内将利率维持在较高水平。市场预期也产生美联储掉期市场定价2023year9月的利率峰值首次升至5.50%。并将这一水平维持到2024Year.


　　与此同时，亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克周三表示，他认为美联储需要将政策利率上调50Basis points, to5%-5.25%的区间。也对昨日尾盘和今日早盘金价产生压力。


　　另外，博斯蒂克表示，为了考虑扭转货币政策的进程，在CPI市场篮子中，大约一半的商品仍然显示出6%或更高的通货膨胀率。这将会在3月打压金价反弹动力，也将限制目前的走强空间，除非下周非农和通胀转弱程度超过预期，否则将再度偏向震荡待跌的前景展望。


　　长期来看，目前美联储利率峰值再度被推升，但这也会降低美国经济软着陆的几率。另外，利率的进一步上升最终也将导致大幅降息。如果美联储真的加息到6%，那只是意味着它可以在以后降息600个基点，这对黄金来说是非常有利的。未来将是持有黄金的好时机。


　　一旦美国加息周期明显结束，或转为降息政策，那么黄金的吸引力将更加显著。


　　如果要到美联储期望的2%目标，个人仍然预计会到2024年的下半年或者是2025年初，故此，降息预期也将放在2024Year or2025年。所以，今年仍然是偏震荡的一年，但也是长期看涨进行买入机会的一年，未来10年可长期持有，上看3500美元或更高都在预料之中。值得一抓。如果说，2016年我说抄底的话，你没有把握住，那么这次的机会，希望不要错过。


Today's Gold Data:


　　18:00eurozone2monthCPI年率初值及月率


　　18:00eurozone1Monthly unemployment rate


　　20:30Announced by the European Central Bank2Monthly Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes


　　21:30From the United States to2month24Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week


The next day03:00美联储理事沃勒就美国经济前景发表讲话


Technical analysis of gold:


　　黄金昨天的走势和预期完全一致，拉高回落，目前受阻于1845附近后回撤，但今天并不是变盘的时间点，从短线走势来看，今天很可能是个震荡局，和昨天一样，而1845的回落在预期之内，所以我们在昨天给出了1841-1843附近做空的点位，昨天的走势是黄金不断拉高，美元不断回落，晚间美元反弹，黄金受阻回落，一切都是顺其自然。


　　黄金目前虽然回落，但不宜追空，短线很可能还会再拉起来，而昨天是日线反弹第二天，加之4Hour levelMACD已经站上0轴上方，显示短线多头力度并不弱，所以1844受阻之后的回落仅仅是回调，而非下跌。当然，黄金接下来也不一定涨多高，但能量消耗需要时间，而这个时间，就是完成短线的强转弱的时间，也是黄金多头最后一冲的时间，上去了继续涨，反之就要开始跌了。


　　4The hour chart has made its first bottom rebound and has reached a key resistance point1805From the perspective of rebound space, it has already been relatively large, breaking the pattern of weak and negative decline. In addition4小时二浪下跌的空间已释放完毕。目前进入中期多空抉择当中，小级别一浪反弹之后是重新转跌还是延续二浪反弹有待确认。就看今天亚欧盘的强弱转换，操作上依旧要把时间点卡到欧美盘，当然即使是向上反弹，也是震荡式的，而非单边多头。反弹过程中遇到阻力也会有所回落，操作上可以卡区间高空低多，把握震荡区间对待。综合来看，今日黄金短线操作思路上指南金师建议回调做多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方短期重点关注1845-1847Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1823-1825Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　3.2Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1843-1845Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1835-1830Nearby, break down and take a look1825frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1823-1825Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1835-1840Nearby, break down and take a look1845frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


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