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Market Review:
InternationalgoldWednesday(3month1day)Volatile closing up, opening price1823.93dollar/Ounces, highest price1844.39dollar/Ounces, lowest price1822.87dollar/Ounces, closing price1841.87dollar/ounce.
Interpretation of the Golden News:
The United States announced on Tuesday2monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIFinal value recorded47.3Higher than market expectations47.8, previous value is47.8; U.S.A2monthISMmanufacturingPMIRecorded47.7, lower than market expectations48, previous value is47.4; U.S.A1月营建支出月率录得-0.1%, lower than market expectations0.2%, previous value is-0.4%。
标普全球市场情报首席商业经济学家克里斯·威廉姆森表示,2月份美国制造业仍面临巨大压力。令人担忧的是,随着许多公司报告的销售业绩令人失望,新移民流入也继续大幅下降,这在一定程度上与节省成本、减少库存的持续趋势以及国内外客户信心低迷有关。这些都不表明经济状况健康。有一些好消息是,有报道称填补职位空缺取得了更大成功,工厂就业增长略有加快,供应链的改善也有助于降低投入成本通胀。然而,不断上升的工资压力和提高利润率的努力意味着,出厂商品的价格将再次大幅上涨,也同样暗示价格压力将居高不下。
美联储官员博斯蒂克表示,经济衰退并非已成定局,我们将尽可能避免经济衰退,如果真的发生衰退,按照历史标准来看也可能是温和的。:最近的证据好坏参半。尽管大量职位空缺有所下降,但劳动力市场仍然紧张,因为职位空缺仍远远超过求职者的数量,这对工资造成了上行压力。政策的滞后性将如何发挥作用存在很大的不确定性。总的来说,货币紧缩似乎尚未对商业活动产生足以严重抑制通胀的作用。仍然认为美联储的政策利率需要上升到5.00%-5.25%的区间,并需要保持在该水平,直到2024年。需要看到货币政策对需求产生更大的抑制作用,工资增长必须放缓,然后才能得出通胀正在稳步下降的结论。经济有足够的动力经受住加息的考验。
美联储官员卡什卡利表示,目前对美国经济来说,紧缩力度不足的风险比过度紧缩的风险要大得多。倾向于继续加息。在美联储下次会议上,我对加息25A basis point or50个基点持开放态度。我们在3月份的点阵图中发出的信号才是更重要的。去年12月,我的观点是美联储需要将利率提高到5.4%并保持不变。到目前为止,美联储的加息并没有降低服务业领域的通胀。希望避免经济衰退,但降低通胀是首要任务。现在的工资增长速度太快,无法与2%的通货膨胀目标保持一致。
美国堪萨斯联储在经济公报中指出,与通胀的其他组成部分相比,租金通胀对劳动力市场状况的反应更大。该联储将劳动力市场紧张和租金通胀之间的联系归因于就业增长和工资增长带来的对租赁市场的更大需求。尽管目前的在线租金要价指标表明,官方的租金通胀指标将会下降,但该联储警告称,只要劳动力市场仍然紧张,租金通胀就可能保持在疫情前的水平之上。
The world's largest goldETF--SPDR Gold TrustPosition decrease compared to the previous day2.61吨,或0.29%The current position is912.69Tons.
According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve3Monthly interest rate increase25Bps to4.75%-5.00%The probability of the interval is69.4%Interest rate hike50Bps to5.00%-5.25%The probability of the interval is30.6%; reach5Monthly cumulative interest rate increase25The probability of a basis point is0%Accumulated interest rate increase50The probability of a basis point is66.3%Accumulated interest rate increase75Bps to5.25%-5.50%The probability of the interval is32.3%Accumulated interest rate increase100Bps to5.50%-5.75%The probability of the interval is1.3%。
Today's Gold Data:
18:00eurozone2monthCPI年率初值及月率
18:00eurozone1Monthly unemployment rate
20:30Announced by the European Central Bank2Monthly Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
21:30From the United States to2month24Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week
The next day03:00美联储理事沃勒就美国经济前景发表讲话
Technical analysis of gold:
日线方面,昨天探底回升,日线刷新了低点后,由阴转阳,报收了一根下影线极长的小阳线,并且吞没了前一日的阳线,是日线初步的止跌信号。这个阳线目前还在1959下跌结构的顶底转化位1847的下方,只有突破这里,日线的反弹才能正式开始,这里的突破预计也只是时间问题。此次在1804止跌的K线形态跟之前在1860时的震荡反弹的情况不同,当时在1860的反弹,并不是日线的,只是4小时的。从日线的K线形态也可以看出来,全是小的阳线实体,并伴随较长的上影线,但是这次在1804ofK线形态,明显阳线的力度更强一些,所以这里预计是4小时的上涨,日线的反弹。从MACD指标的绿色能量柱也可以看出来,跌至这里之后,下跌动能明显不足,快慢线有形成金叉的迹象,这都是未来金价会开始日线反弹的关键信息,所以在月初阶段,重点注意日线的反弹力度,以及未来的反弹高点,这个高点是第二段布局空单的重要点位,短线暂时按照日线次级别反弹趋势低多对待即可。
Short line4小时方面,昨天出现1804的低点后,彻底激发了4小时的上涨动能,底背离成立并且进行了修正,从k线的力度上,可以明显的看出来,阳线的实体已经大于阴线的实体,这是上涨动能恢复的征兆。昨天突破1820之后,下跌结构出现了破坏,并且刷新了高点,这是下跌结构转为上涨机构的初步信号,未来金价的初步上涨目标在1845-50,到达此位置后需要关注的是会否回落,出现次低点,来确认此段4小时的上涨,未来的上涨目标到1860预计问题不大,MACD指标此次快慢线上零轴的可能性较大,上零轴之后,就意味着此段反弹将转为上涨。1823今日起涨点作为风水岭,若价格失守此处,则结束短暂反弹修正,继续转弱势压制;建议是参考通道上轨1845看压制回测,不宜追涨,重点就是看今晚能否回测下去,日线确认收什么形态来决定下一步;综合来看,今日黄金短线操作思路上指南金师建议回调做多为主,反弹做空为辅,上方短期重点关注1845-1847Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1823-1825Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.
3.2Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:
Empty order strategy:
Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1843-1845Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1835-1830Nearby, break down and take a look1825frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)
Multiple order strategy:
Strategy 2: Gold Callback1823-1825Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1835-1840Nearby, break down and take a look1845frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)
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